Assessing suburb supply and demand

[Green Grass]

Hi all, any tips on assessing supply and demand in a given suburb?

I recognise over supply dangers in certain outer suburbs, eg Craigieburn in Melbourne and Butler/Alkimos in Perth but are there any simple measures in inner and Middle ring suburbs where housing development is limited?

Can you reach conclusions via:
- average days to sell
- stock on market this year versus last year

As an example, Bayswater in WA:

- average days to sell is 52 (demand indicator)
- 48% increase in housing stock on market in Jan 15 versus Jan 14
- 3 month price growth 2.5%
- 12 month price growth 8.6%

Can't work out why prices are still rising there.

Do you get more of a read assessing % of suburb stock on market compared to the metro area as a whole.

Thanks
GG

 

[Green Grass]

Hi all, just bumping this up the list as with 330 views, there must be plenty interest in this subject (hope that's ok mods!). Interested in any thoughts.

Thanks. GG.

 

[tremolo]

Realestate.com.au have a tool which provides some insight on 'visits/property' which should help you glean some relative demand

http://www.realestate.com.au/neighbourhoods/craigieburn-3064-vic

 

[R377]

Those stats - supply and demand. Days on market, same time last year % in real estate terms are quite new stats.

Bayswater with the 48% increase in stock, I think you will find in the coming months that the other stats will catch up. eg. days on market will rise and median growth will slow down. Give it 3-4 months and check back...

 

[knightm]

Yeah I believe CG is a lag measure, not not a pre-indicator. Check the ones that respond quicker ie Stock rising, vacancy rates have jumped, sales rate is falling. Even with the quoted days on market figure the other metrics are pointing to softening CG short term. Unless you have some major fundamentals pointing to a buy now, the timing is a bit off. No issue for long term buy and hold depends on your strategy.