Auction Clearance Rates/Credit Growth/Capital Gains

It seems to me that the market is rolling over.

We have credit/loan growth slowing considerably, capital gains have come off the boil and auction clearance rates are on their way down.

On top of this I have seen a substantial (but not measurable aka anecdotal) increase in listings on property sites for the suburbs I keep an eye on.

The next few months could get very interesting.

Melbourne REIV Auction Clearance (Source: Graphed myself from REIV stats):


Rolling Monthly Credit growth (Source: User on another forum graphed from ABS):


Rismark Quarterly Capital Gains (Source: ABC):
 
melb is definitely in for another small correction.

it grew way too fast and a lot of people didn't jump in, so agents could only spruik prices so far until they realised no-one was buying.
 
the melb miniboom was always an anomoly waiting to be flattened. there are illwinds for the 'australian property market' in the short term
 
yes Melb has to slow down and possibly go slightly backwards but that is a good thing in many ways, many including myself are sitting on between 30-70% capital growth on properties bought in 2007-2008, if it stabilizes or comes off 10% or so that is still very sweet in my mind and gives plenty of $$$ to go shopping in other markets such as brisbane with excellent short to mid term capital growth prospects:D
 
The next two weekends in Melbourne will have record listings for auctions in winter. Concommitant with spring numbers.

The whiteness has been taken out of the heat for now. It was getting ridiculous. Most of those that pass in eventually sell to realistic vendors. The market here is now simmering.

Some areas may soften slightly (1 mill and above) and others at circa median price range may see investors pick up some slack. My caveat would be that they would have to have amenity and rental demand

The below median FHB areas will drop with any further rate rises. Generally this will be 30-40 km from CBD and mostly the new stock (box and land packages) that the FHB boost saw increase. Not ideal investment territory IMO unless those hurting sell and rent back to save them moving and remain settled if they have a family with kids.
 
Auction clearance rates continue to drop in Melbourne.

I've attached two charts, first chart is including all weeks results, the second takes out those long weekends that have less than 300 auctions reported to give a more accurate representation of where Melbourne is heading.

Growth in Melbourne according to residex's latest figures has slowed considerably (barely positive, .27% for houses, .01% for units) in May, so it will be interesting to see if June's results reflect the auction results we are seeing (growth could be negative...?).
 

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Hobo, there were over 1000 auctions yesterday, a record for June. May and June have had massive auction numbers with July and August predicted to be very quiet.

The heat has definately come out of the market, however this has been influnced greatly by high stock levels. With this being a short term phenomenon I don't see the downward trend continuing for much longer and more of a stabilization period occuring.
 
Oh and do think that prices have come off the boil from the early 2010 highs by around 5%-10% in the areas I am involved with (Camberwell, Canterbury, Hawthorn etc). This is not evident across all the properties sold though.
 
Hobo, there were over 1000 auctions yesterday, a record for June. May and June have had massive auction numbers with July and August predicted to be very quiet.

The heat has definately come out of the market, however this has been influnced greatly by high stock levels. With this being a short term phenomenon I don't see the downward trend continuing for much longer and more of a stabilization period occuring.

HIGH STOCK LEVELS.

The market (to quote a REA in the media recently) has 'died in the ****'

# of Private sales are some down 40% since March
Auction clearance rates are down from 85%+ to well under 70%
value of aggregate weekly sales are down 30%.

Its over !!


High stock levels or is it, low levels of greater fools with access to funding?
 
..............High stock levels or is it, low levels of greater fools with access to funding?

A bit of both. More supply than demand for now. That's for sure. There are also still unrealistic expectations out there from some vendors. Those that want things sold are still getting reasonable prices by late last year's standards, just not the stupid prices of Feb/Mar/Apri earlier this year. The market had to come back to some sort of equilibrium as it had over-shot by ridiculous amounts. :cool:

Broad softening of around 5-10 % in the circa million category is on the cards if it hasn't aleady happened. These are mostly PPOR's I would imagine.

There will be very few investors in that market to tolerate sub 2-3 % yields with the hope of growth. :rolleyes:

Will growth resume once more? Yep.
When? Anyone's guess. I've mentioned in other posts that I consider we are entering a period of very flat conditions, albeit in Melbourne the market I follow and am more familiar with.

My feeling is that the markets yet to fall and feel the pain of contraction are the median and sub-median FHB areas and assets. A couple of more rate rises, which in the scheme of things should not stress those who have allowed contingency. Unfortunately it is this demographic precisely, being most sensitive, to interest rates, that have somewhat naively entered relying on handouts and with nominal savings and not doing their homework or buffering with offsets or some reserves of cash.

The well located properties by way of amentities and infrastrucutre (by default of my definition excluding the outer fringes) are likely to be mopped up by investors. This will be circa 30 km rim from CBD and be infill areas where the franchise commodity is still the dirt (the cow) and yields (milk) should be reasonable as their tenant pool will likely be those who have sold (or forced sales by lenders) and still wish to reside there for the amenity and schools, etc. Also median priced rents should ensure a steady stream of customers.

Melbourne overshot; it's that simple. I don't consider things will collapse, however stagnation (perhaps tracking inflation or thereabouts) will be on the cards for this city for the next five or so years.

I reckon the real litmus test will be this spring. If stock on market rises sharply and demand due to buyer sentiment is still low, then some softening has to occur.

Things will sort themselves out. A homeostasis of sorts will re-balance the market here with supply/demand issues and of course the biggest unknown is how much tighter might credit get with continuing factors overseas.

For those looking to exit this market, now may be a better time than in 12 months time. There may be better opportunities in markets that have yet to really fire. Cash will speak volumes to those vendors desparate to offload in the coming couple of years. Being a liquid buyer in such conditions with folding stuff or offsets will enable one to solve these peoples problems with a reward of discounts deeper than the norm ;)

This not advice to anyone, just my take on things in this city right now and what I'm smelling in the air.
 
RPData has not published for end of last week yet.

According to APM though:
SYD was 60%
MEL was the same @ 60%
BNE was 35%
ADL was 50%
They are only numbers,once you break it all down Mel one would think Mel will have more higher%of properties at auction the same as Syd
and too a very very lesser number Bris-Adl,i think those numbers are very misleading once you break those numbers into other numbers.
willair.
 
They are only numbers,once you break it all down Mel one would think Mel will have more higher%of properties at auction the same as Syd
and too a very very lesser number Bris-Adl,i think those numbers are very misleading once you break those numbers into other numbers.
willair.

You are of course, quite right. As discussed previously, these numbers are rubbery as they count sales that occur after being passed in, don't count all sales - as not all are reported, don't always include withdrawn priors etc.

Total properties in SYD were 283 and in MEL 197, BNE 22 and ADL 23 just FYI.
 
You are of course, quite right. As discussed previously, these numbers are rubbery as they count sales that occur after being passed in, don't count all sales - as not all are reported, don't always include withdrawn priors etc.

Total properties in SYD were 283 and in MEL 197, BNE 22 and ADL 23 just FYI.

the numbers are big porkies .. was well over 500 in syd on weekend
 
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