Auction clearance rates - is Sydney overheated already?

It would be interesting to see if places like this are going to OO or investors.... OO would be my vague guess... if they're willing to pay prices like this for a reno special, then hopefully this is the sign of confidence to come.
 
I'm acting on the belief that its the start of a longer period of growth. Prices in some places are getting back to where they were in 2004 , some places are around 20 % up in that period .

I'm expecting that over the next ten years that the sydney market will go up to around double the previous peak . I'm not sure what time frame that will be over with this period.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a steady build over a period of years leading to a more extreme boom occurring at a time when the overall economy picks up / wages go up , finances loosen up and eventually rates go up and slow everything down.

That's what my crystal ball is telling me.

In 87 88 prices doubled in around one year in sydney. Don't expect to see that happen at the moment.

Cliff
 
The media moves slowly - they'll be reporting it in 6-12 months just as we probably reach close to the next peak. Too late then.

Ah so true.... as they rely on data that is often not issued until after title transfer there's also a lag period of 3-4 mths, that can be misleading and behind unless you're in the market on a regular basis.

I'm no longer shocked by underquoting, inflated prices paid and outstanding results. We are in boom-like conditions right now after all, in several Sydney suburbs. Lack of stock, imbalance of buyer/supply issues, increased investors in the market, historically low IR's = decent yields, solid economy, positive sentiment, affordability ceilings not yet reached etc.

A couple of recent examples with some of our clients (none sold to us, incidentally):

http://www.domain.com.au/Property/?adid=2010519300
B/Hills house quoted $800K's- reserve c$850K sold $1m on auction with 24 registered bidders

http://www.mcgrath.com.au/buy/house-willoughby-nsw-2068/181051
Willoughby quoted $2m+ - reserve $2.25m sold $2.62m

Interesting times ahead, as the market recovers well and truly from it's doldrum years in many lower-priced suburbs especially. Middle rings are also performing well under the $1m price bracket and we expect this cg to continue, much like Alan's forecast, for the next 12-18mths minimum.
 
What are you seeing on the Central Coast propertunity?

Shortage of listings.
Good properties being sold within hours or a few days.
Some agencies sacking staff - can't get enough listings to survive.
People offering way overs to get property. (We are on one at present going to auction shortly. We valued at $310-320K, REA agrees, one desperate buyer has offered $350K and slapped down a $35,000 deposit.....desperate to buy I suppose).
All the usual hallmarks of the beginnings of a boom.
 
Shortage of listings.
Good properties being sold within hours or a few days.
Some agencies sacking staff - can't get enough listings to survive.
People offering way overs to get property. (We are on one at present going to auction shortly. We valued at $310-320K, REA agrees, one desperate buyer has offered $350K and slapped down a $35,000 deposit.....desperate to buy I suppose).
All the usual hallmarks of the beginnings of a boom.

Hi PU
This is exactly what has been happening in Perth over the last 18 months. However, I believe it is now going sideways due to what is currently happening in the mining sector.

Interesting times ahead for Sydney folk, shame my money is now tied up doing developments.

Cheers MTR
 
Shortage of listings.
Good properties being sold within hours or a few days.
Some agencies sacking staff - can't get enough listings to survive.
People offering way overs to get property. (We are on one at present going to auction shortly. We valued at $310-320K, REA agrees, one desperate buyer has offered $350K and slapped down a $35,000 deposit.....desperate to buy I suppose).
All the usual hallmarks of the beginnings of a boom.

It's been like that on the coast for a while now.

Well especially around the southern end around Gosford. I think eventually the northern end will warm up and move, but in the meantime there is plenty of demand in commutable areas to Sydney.

Future development in Wyong shire will help push that area, along with the central coast airport proposal that is still ongoing.
 
1. You've obviously missed the easy money in Sydney and Melbourne

2. Market has a bit more to run, especially Sydney I would've thought

3. However, there is a 30-40% chance you pay overpay now

4. There should be still steam left. Especially if there is one more rate cut, market will do another leg

5. Being diligent now (but not too cautious that you miss the whole boom altogether) is a bit more important.

6. As they say, when the media starts catching on, the market has already run (eg this time, market ran in Dec 2012-Mar 2013, but media was still talking about a weak market and a crash. When media started being neutral in April-May 2013, the market was on fire. When media called a boom in June-July 2013, it had actually been booming for half a year).

7. When your neighbour starts talking about buying property, you know it's nearing the peak. So they'll be a good proxy for when we're peaking

8. When some house forumites like hobo starts talking about a rising market, you know it's about to dip. That's a good proxy for consolidating and paying down debt and bumping up cashflow
 
1. You've obviously missed the easy money in Sydney and Melbourne

What's easier ?

Buying in a dead market and not knowing how long you have to hold it before you see a reward or waiting till the market is moving and then buying .

You don't have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to make good money .

We did neither in the last cycle but still did very nicely .

Cliff
 
Doesn't have to be the either of those extremes.

Can be buying in the bottom of the market with some view that a recovery is imminent. Did that last year.
 
Doesn't have to be the either of those extremes.

Can be buying in the bottom of the market with some view that a recovery is imminent. Did that last year.

So did we . We've bought six properties ( five in sydney ) since the GFC hit . However when we bought two last year I didn't know when the market would take off.

The last one , our future PPOR we bought recently once I realised the market was heating up . We settle this week. I didn't want to hold that for too long unless the market was moving as it won't be close to cash flow neutral.

Now it's starting , we'll probably gear up more aggressively.

Cliff
 
I know this thread is about Sydney but as a comparison - just see what 800k (yes, 800k) gets you in Melbourne 2km from CBD as of today: http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-richmond-114179399

Looks like it's boom time.

Despite being in a good pocket of Richmond, they paid way too much.

In June, a 3 br, 2 bath single terrace, no renovation needed house sold in Port Melbourne for $517k. On Elgin Carton a 3br two storey with small courtyard sold for $715k. Its moving around a fair bit in inner Melbourne. Can get a great deal on a good day and pay stupid amount on another day.
 
Despite being in a good pocket of Richmond, they paid way too much.

Agreed but not complaining.

In June, a 3 br, 2 bath single terrace, no renovation needed house sold in Port Melbourne for $517k. On Elgin Carton a 3br two storey with small courtyard sold for $715k. Its moving around a fair bit in inner Melbourne. Can get a great deal on a good day and pay stupid amount on another day.

Must be due to location.
 
location of the port Melbourne one not ideal. Main road but on a service lane (I believe). But on the sth melb side so absolutely rentable at a good yield.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-port+melbourne-114163771

The Fitzroy one was in a good location

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-fitzroy+north-113768631

The Carlton one. Not ideal but renters market would be either young professions or uni students who can afford to live in Carlton.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-carlton-113481279

These all sold recently and for what I call 'a bargain'.

I wonder if the person who bought the Richmond property owned next door or something? As a extremely nicely renovated place almost identical (ie, red brick federation, two bedroom, large attic, etc) sold last month for $850k near Stawell street (cant remember street name). Would be surprised to see $800k again for such a wreck. But awesome to the seller and yourself who own similar. I suppose the price paid is the going price.
 
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