Aussie CAD

This is one of the better links you have shared with us in quite a while. Government sources like Treasury are generally unbiased.

Do you ever have positive news WW? :D The links you share with us - and i know you are well intentioned in doing so - are usually always doom & gloom in theme.

Everything is a conspiracy and the world is about to end......is that WW's mindset? *wink*
 
Told you there was nothing to worry about! ;)

Now, I've got a hankering to purchase some property...

(An excellent article WW - it rings true to me - thanks for the link!)
 
Government sources like Treasury are generally unbiased.

Anyone who thinks Ken Henry is unbiased is biased.

I don't have a need to talk up property, or the economy. I accept the good with the bad, and cover the downside.

Do you ever have positive news WW? :D
The links you share with us - and i know you are well intentioned in doing so - are usually always doom & gloom in theme.

Meconium, if you had a demonstrated history of considered and unbiased opinion supported by quality references, I might not consider your posts as literally meconium.

Warren Buffett didn't get wealthy playing pollyanna. Why do you get your knickers in a knot as soon as the property market softens? I suppose you'll have to get another pin up boy now that Chris Joye has become a bear.

Everything is a conspiracy and the world is about to end......is that WW's mindset? *wink*

Everything is a conspiracy? with subtle discerning insight like that Mec, I am genuinely interested in your education and profession.

Told you there was nothing to worry about! ;)

Now, I've got a hankering to purchase some property...

(An excellent article WW - it rings true to me - thanks for the link!)


Interpret it as you will HE. There's multiple holes in Treasury's treatment. i.e.

- why is there a drive to get the public purse quickly back into surplus? What has changed that prevents simultaneous public and private debt?

- why is infrastructure not keeping up with population growth, as evident in LGAs having to front load head works costs and increasingingly inadequate transport such as Sydney and Melbourne train overcrowding, and congested peak hour arterial roads.

- why are public health waiting lists growing?

- why is the pension not keeping pace with inflation?

- why is govt selling off assets? particularly Vic, NSW, and Qld.

- why is our workforce of necessity becoming more casualized?

- why didn't the analysis address the sustainability of Australia's high population growth rate, and its contribution to our BOP?

 
In the event WW ever posted something positive or didnt blame some sort of conspiracy then thats when we should all be really fearful. Because such an event would cause the world to split in two, the laws of gravity would cease to apply and my pet dog would instantaneously explode from the drop in air pressure.

(light hearted joke WW, thanks for the link)

Do you ever have positive news WW? :D
 
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Against that criterion, Australia’s large CADs in recent years, and the prospect that these could continue for some time, do not appear to be a cause for concern. Increased external borrowing is financing investment, mainly in the resources sector, that is likely to yield high rates of return and will expand export supply capacity. In these circumstances we could expect external borrowing to raise the wellbeing of Australians and to be readily serviced. Although net foreign liabilities are likely to grow significantly as a share of GDP, the size of the trade balance adjustment needed to ensure long-run sustainability appears readily achievable.

clearly treasury and the RBA aren't talking to each other.
 
Ss = Ssri ?

WW, you seem to have overreacted to my post and have taken things too personally. You are a valued member of this forum and have posted some interesting links over the last few months. Whatever your views, I suspect there is certainly no malevolence in your words.

Now that we've got that out of the way, the one thing that strikes me from your many thousands of posts is that I cannot once recall you saying anything positive about either the economy or property.

Surely there must be some good news out there, some opportunities that we can seize, either domestically or overseas? Rather than heading for the hills, am I being too bold to suggest that the world is not about to end?



I am genuinely interested in your education and profession.



My education? Well, it's not so dissimilar from yours. The one thing that we have in common is that neither of us has a formal background in macroeconomics.

- why is infrastructure not keeping up with population growth
- why are public health waiting lists growing?
- why is the pension not keeping pace with inflation?
- why is govt selling off assets? particularly Vic, NSW, and Qld.
- why is our workforce of necessity becoming more casualized?
- why didn't the analysis address the sustainability of Australia's high population growth rate, and its contribution to our BOP?

Wow more depressing doom and gloom stuff. No good news here; as usual, everything is going to end in tears. Oh the hardships we endure!

*giggle*. WW, surely there's some sunny news that you can share with us? Lighten up dude. The world is not as bad as you make out and has been through a lot worse in the past.

BTW you are being mendacious when you allege that Australia has a high population growth rate. I thought the population was declining, hence the need for immigration and the baby bonus? As for the scaremongering about privatizations - the country has been selling off assets since the late 1980s. Heck we can go further back than that - didn't Bob Menzies sell off public housing to tenants back in the 50s? Hasn't hurt our 'Straya one bit.

How about some good news for a change WW? :) You are a valued member of SS, surely you have some warm & fuzzie goodies you can share with the rest of us? You know, things that can help us make a few dollars. This is an investment forum after all.
 
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How about some good news for a change WW? :) You are a valued member of SS, surely you have some warm & fuzzie goodies you can share with the rest of us? You know, things that can help us make a few dollars. This is an investment forum after all.

Mec, earlier today I read through your recent posts and formed a view on you state of mind..... -> 70% of what you say is vague personal anecdote based on your property investment in the last 7-8 years, all or most of which is in Melbourne. Flaming also features heavily in your posts.

Enough forumites know me personally to vouch I have been active in property this year, and equities....The latter has been many times more successful because Brisbane property has stalled. You may not be aware of this because you seem to only talk about where you buy or live. You need to genuinely ask yourself whether that is fair to the broader forum membership who don't invest around Frankston.

I had you on ignore until a few days ago, and as you persist in time wasting diatribe, have just put you back on ignore.
 
WW has pointed out hundreds of time his views regarding platinum, palladium, gold and silver, rare earth elements etc.

Well, not literally hundreds of times.
And in my view recent stellar performance is primarily due to US QE2.

What happens to the cost and availability of credit in Australia as QE2 passes, will undoubtedly remain a mystery to Meconium.

I shall endeavour to understand it, and discuss it intelligently with those so motivated.
 
Somtimes people are not a 'bear' in the strictest sense of the word, instead they are highlighting and discussing potential issues of risk.

When one is aware of the risk, then either contermeasures are created, or the returns have to be such to justify the perceived risk.

My bullish/bearish posts on this forum over the last year are probably significantly favouring the bear camp, yet am i holding cash? no.

I am however investing in accordance with the statements i post on this forum.

Winston goes for forex/resource trading. I try to focus on companies that are not too effected by the 'fear' or at least are trading at a level where i am well compensated for that 'fear'. I am also very fearful of the fact that global markets caught be caught in a long term secular bear market. Hence to compensate for my fear, all my share investments must be able to stack up on current measures. There is no buy for the long term at this stage in the cycle.

I also hold residential property, but there is no way on earth that i am going out there and buying more just on the naive pretence that property 'doubles every 10 years'. At the moment i am in controlled sell mode (you meet my price i sell to you, take it or leave it, i dont care). The reason for this is to control my total debt levels.

Why do i do this with property?
because i want to be in control. I want to be actionary rather than re-actionary. Anyone with a knowledge of game theory/application of market power knows that it is always better to be on the side on acting rather than re-acting to a situation.

The point is uber bullish statements such as 'bite as much as you can and then chew like mad' are quite naive in their generality. There is a very limited time span in the whole cycle of investments, when such statements can apply.

Maybe posts such as Winstons have to be taken in a similar context to our anti terrisom advertisements: be aware but not afraid.
 
Mec, earlier today I read through your recent posts and formed a view

It's nice that you've taken the time to go through my posts. Didn't realize I was important enough to deserve the attention. Was it Socrates who said "The Unexamined life is not worth living?" Nobody is examining you WW - no need to get paranoid. ;)

Enough forumites know me personally to vouch I have been active in property this year, and equities....

And like everyone else here I wish you well.

I had you on ignore until a few days ago, and as you persist in time wasting.

I will try to ignore the constant stream of negative "the world's going to end" news and conspiracy theories that you seem to promote. BTW do you really believe in Ghosts? ;)

you seem to only talk about where you buy or live.

And you talk about the macroeconomy with more authority than JK Galbraith or JM Keynes! ;) Chill out a bit WW. The world isn't going to end anytime soon. Scaremongering aside, life is a decade's time won't be any worse than it is today.
 
Maybe posts such as Winstons have to be taken in a similar context to our anti terrisom advertisements: be aware but not afraid.

IV, I think you probably understand best that I strive for better risk adjusted returns....hence my preoccupation with forecasting the future and understanding and measuring the downside.

I understand talk of the downside frightens the naive and simple minded, who think groups like Mirvac and Stockland don't give a stuff about downside risk. Personally, I think there's a lot to emulating their timing and risk management.
 
Personally I see many sectors of the market as being a tad expensive and would be wary of buying overpriced junk at this point in time. But I try to keep an open mind. That said, I keep well away from people who are perpetually bearish or excessively paranoid. And when people subscribe to conspiracy theories, I usually feel sorry for them as this is so often an indication of an unbalanced mind.

Enough forumites know me personally to vouch I have been active in property this year, and equities....

And like everyone else here I wish you well.

you seem to only talk about where you buy or live.

And you talk about the macroeconomy with more authority than JK Galbraith or JM Keynes! ;) Chill out a bit WW. The world isn't going to end anytime soon. Life in a decade's time won't be any worse than it is today. Your obsessive fears about the state of the macroeconomy are unfounded.
 
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Treasury's view that most new debt is due to productivity investment and not housing, doesn't reconcile with Steve Keen's chart below.

Treasury
higher investment has been to expand productive capacity, particularly in the export sector — it has not reflected over-investment in housing associated with a house price bubble




Keen

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Maybe this is another position Treasury will change their mind on shortly.
 
Treasury's view that most new debt is due to productivity investment and not housing, doesn't reconcile with Steve Keen's chart below.

If you are going to quote the great Keen, you could at least show us some comparative charts of housing as a % of GDP for other OECD countries. But you won't - you seize at any kind of negative news you can to prove to us that the world is about to end. For you, the future is perpetually bleak, the glass always half empty.

Any more bad news to share?
 
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