there's a clip on youtube about the scarily similar positions the USA is currently in and the roman empire before it's collapse.
right down to sociography and demographics.
right down to sociography and demographics.
Australians are now the biggest borrowers in the world
- Thread starter pete_w
- Start date
I've seen an online version a few months back but I don't know if it was the whole thing.
Watching the documentary will give us an idea of the extend of the problem which could lead to a new US stock market crash or at minimum would mean a long and painful road to economic recovery.
And if the US in not going to recover soon, the EU and Asia will not recover either. Therefore, despite what Glenn Stevens and the RBA are telling us the GFC is not going to end overnight and interest rates should stay low for a loong time to come.
IMHO
all the more time to amass more for when it does come back - or rents skyrocket - or both.
Iousa
I watched the entire program, although it is a little dated now.
There is a comparison to the trigger of the fall of the British Empire; being the Suez Crisis (otherwise known as the Tripartite Aggression) in 1956, the Poms & French backed out of after the US pulled the economic strings, which included the US 'owning' a lions share of the British pound at the time (due in large part to the post WWII economic fallout).
Interestingly enough, China is probably close to having a similar controlling economic interest over the US. Now all they need is a catalyst to cause them to use it........
Very interesting times lay ahead in what can only be termed, the immediate future. The next decade looks set to mark the 'changing of the guard' and redefine a new world order. Scary times
I watched the entire program, although it is a little dated now.
There is a comparison to the trigger of the fall of the British Empire; being the Suez Crisis (otherwise known as the Tripartite Aggression) in 1956, the Poms & French backed out of after the US pulled the economic strings, which included the US 'owning' a lions share of the British pound at the time (due in large part to the post WWII economic fallout).
Interestingly enough, China is probably close to having a similar controlling economic interest over the US. Now all they need is a catalyst to cause them to use it........
Very interesting times lay ahead in what can only be termed, the immediate future. The next decade looks set to mark the 'changing of the guard' and redefine a new world order. Scary times
I watched the entire program, although it is a little dated now.
There is a comparison to the trigger of the fall of the British Empire; being the Suez Crisis (otherwise known as the Tripartite Aggression) in 1956, the Poms & French backed out of after the US pulled the economic strings, which included the US 'owning' a lions share of the British pound at the time (due in large part to the post WWII economic fallout).
Interestingly enough, China is probably close to having a similar controlling economic interest over the US. Now all they need is a catalyst to cause them to use it........
Very interesting times lay ahead in what can only be termed, the immediate future. The next decade looks set to mark the 'changing of the guard' and redefine a new world order. Scary times
Yeah I agree and I don't think just because China decided to drop their guard and buy more iron right now just to finish off their stimulus plans , anything has changed. They're just being practical like any good strategist .
Those actions actually help their cause in that they send us into a false security thinking oh they weren't upto anything after all.
As far as Rudds stuff , his got the Gov in debt and talked the whole country into even more debt and buyers paying even more for property , in a year like 09 , anything can happen yet !
I read a quick one whereby Bush actually did something like that in 01 which virtually set the stage for their crash, it just took longer .
Buggered if I know , wouldn't be jingling for atleast a couple of yrs yet though , the 'real' numbers are bloody terrible in any bodies language .
I just came back from china about 1-2 months ago on a holiday with the gf. Let me just say that I believe China will take over the world in the next decade or so, and when that happens..to put it simply, we are FKED. The chinese from china are rude, arrogant, ill-mannered, shrewd so when(not if) they take over the world whether in an economical or literal sense, we are all screwed.
Mind you, they seem to be a tad more intimidated when I spoke english to them. But the poor gf got the **** treatment speaking chinese to them.
Yes I am chinese, and thankfully I do not live in China. Most chinese that do not live in China are more civilised and polite so this does not apply to them but if you are chinese and go to china on holiday(if there are any of you out there on this forum, i'm sure you'll vouch for this post! otherwise westerners you won't notice this too much)
Mind you, they seem to be a tad more intimidated when I spoke english to them. But the poor gf got the **** treatment speaking chinese to them.
Yes I am chinese, and thankfully I do not live in China. Most chinese that do not live in China are more civilised and polite so this does not apply to them but if you are chinese and go to china on holiday(if there are any of you out there on this forum, i'm sure you'll vouch for this post! otherwise westerners you won't notice this too much)
China and US are too interrelated and codependent to allow any of these D and G scenarios within their realms. They seem to be both heading towards a common style of government, and are both xenophobic nationalists and concentrate on their own patches to the despair of the rest of the world - which is the danger I'd see for the near future.
Like any patient on the table, the global financial circumstance has cut off circulation to the unnecessary and non essential. Iceland, Argentina, soon a number of EU countries, are starved of oxygen and being amputated to save the core nervous system.
Lucky for us our products are essential to the diet of recovery. Doesn't mean our middle class won't be harvested in the rush for our resources of course, and by the foolish actions of our political masters, but I'd give it a couple of years at least.
Although he's a bit lunatic fringe for my taste, Barnaby Joyce's call to beware of US (and by extension China's) economic behaviours, and for Australia to become a bit more self sufficient economically should have been taken on board by the powers imho. Rudd seems to be continuing the Australian political tradition of hoping the big boys overseas will protect our future. No harm in a bit of self-reliance I'd say.
Like any patient on the table, the global financial circumstance has cut off circulation to the unnecessary and non essential. Iceland, Argentina, soon a number of EU countries, are starved of oxygen and being amputated to save the core nervous system.
Lucky for us our products are essential to the diet of recovery. Doesn't mean our middle class won't be harvested in the rush for our resources of course, and by the foolish actions of our political masters, but I'd give it a couple of years at least.
Although he's a bit lunatic fringe for my taste, Barnaby Joyce's call to beware of US (and by extension China's) economic behaviours, and for Australia to become a bit more self sufficient economically should have been taken on board by the powers imho. Rudd seems to be continuing the Australian political tradition of hoping the big boys overseas will protect our future. No harm in a bit of self-reliance I'd say.
The problem with statement like 'China will take over the world' is that we are giving any peoples too much credit for actually knowing what is going on.
If China does take over the world it will not be through planning and guille it will be through luck, growth and natural attrition, and will represent the cyclical nature of humanity over the ages. Some countries grow and prosper, and some will shrink and disappear.
There is no oriental 'mastermind' sitting behind a red door with all the answers.
If China does take over the world it will not be through planning and guille it will be through luck, growth and natural attrition, and will represent the cyclical nature of humanity over the ages. Some countries grow and prosper, and some will shrink and disappear.
There is no oriental 'mastermind' sitting behind a red door with all the answers.
Couldn't agree more. It takes a concerted effort to 'control' the market and I do not believe there is a single enitity involved here, simply a shift of wealth within a free market. Consider the concern shown when Hong Kong was handed back to China, you would think the world was going to fall in but it's business as usual.
For a nation with the political ideologies and human rights issues that they have China plays a damn good game of Capitalism.
Regards
Andrew
they play a good game because they've been studying it for the past 50 years - not living it and accepting it's trials, tribulations and nuances.
Yeah that's the way I see it BC , I think they're resentfully trying to appear to be fitting in .
On the world take over scenarios though , I doubt it myself . I feel their real interest would be Australia, we have the resources they need and we have the space they're running out off and, we're close by , nice and handy.
I don't think we should allow too much buying up at all to be honest and be very wary of it.
Can't see the States is any good to them in other than a trading sense , too filled up already . But what I think they do want from States is to knock them of the no 1 perch and take over that seat.
They seem to work using the jabbing , teasing and then retreat strategy. Small jabs at a time , dust settling and then a bit further the next. Quietly testing the boundary's and sentiment as they go .
Cheers
On the world take over scenarios though , I doubt it myself . I feel their real interest would be Australia, we have the resources they need and we have the space they're running out off and, we're close by , nice and handy.
I don't think we should allow too much buying up at all to be honest and be very wary of it.
Can't see the States is any good to them in other than a trading sense , too filled up already . But what I think they do want from States is to knock them of the no 1 perch and take over that seat.
They seem to work using the jabbing , teasing and then retreat strategy. Small jabs at a time , dust settling and then a bit further the next. Quietly testing the boundary's and sentiment as they go .
Cheers
Well they had the Asian Financial Crisis and some condos are just breaking even from the 1997 price now.
Re Australian credit market, irresponsible lending will come back to haunt us all one day. Some are still offering 95% LVR I heard. Markets that haven't crashed such as HK and Shanghai have already clamped down on such practices. It helps when their governments are motivated to do the right thing, but not necesarilly the popular thing.
Yup
Amways largest world market I believe is China .............Amway China had 6000 Platinum Level IBOs on the Gold Coast a couple of years ago on their annual China Leadership Seminar.
ta
rolf
If you're going to compare apples with apples then maybe you should factor in the $174,000 owed by every man, woman and child in America via the national debt.
http://digitaljournal.com/article/284509#tab=comments&sc=0&contribute=&local=
obviously a bit hyperbolic, if we experience a crash of that magnitude banks won't sell the properties as that would actually realise the loss, like what is happening in the US. It's a pretty big IF as well
Would like to see some sources for the figures, thought I thought the description of the possible knock on effects was interesting.
This is out of date because the deficit is even higher.
Cincinnnati Enquirer 20/10/2011
Take a hard look at hard numbers
7:59 am, Oct 20, 2011 | Written by Letters Editor |
The US National financial budget:
•U.S. Tax revenue for 2011: $2,170,000,000,000
•Fed budget for 2011: $3,820,000,000,000
•New debt for 2011: $1,650,000,000,000
•National debt as of 2012: $14,271,000,000,000
•Recent budget cut for 2012:$38,500,000,000
Now, remove eight zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:
•Annual family income: $21,700
•Money the family spent: $38,200
•New debt on the credit card: $16,500
•Outstanding balance on credit card: $142,710
•Total Budget cuts: $385.
Cincinnnati Enquirer 20/10/2011
Take a hard look at hard numbers
7:59 am, Oct 20, 2011 | Written by Letters Editor |
The US National financial budget:
•U.S. Tax revenue for 2011: $2,170,000,000,000
•Fed budget for 2011: $3,820,000,000,000
•New debt for 2011: $1,650,000,000,000
•National debt as of 2012: $14,271,000,000,000
•Recent budget cut for 2012:$38,500,000,000
Now, remove eight zeros and pretend it’s a household budget:
•Annual family income: $21,700
•Money the family spent: $38,200
•New debt on the credit card: $16,500
•Outstanding balance on credit card: $142,710
•Total Budget cuts: $385.
americans owe a lot more than 44k a piece. that's if you take every man, woman and child into the equation.
it's great when aussies are taken as employed people paying, but the americans it's EVERYONE just to water the figures down.
take out american children, the unemployed and retirees and each worker has to pay north of $150k each.
edit* just saw redwings post - sorry, $142,710 - not $150,000.
it's great when aussies are taken as employed people paying, but the americans it's EVERYONE just to water the figures down.
take out american children, the unemployed and retirees and each worker has to pay north of $150k each.
edit* just saw redwings post - sorry, $142,710 - not $150,000.
"Credit card" is not the right term. The interest rate on this debt beats credit cards, home loans or pretty much any other security available in the world.
US Treasury Bond yields are hovering around 2% for a 10 year term (just below ATM). Note this rate is "locked in" for 10 years. Credit card interest rates hover around at least 14% (last time I looked which was a lot of years ago now).
So in redwing's example, the effective value of the current outstanding US govt debt is 2/14x142k = approx $20k on the equivalent "family credit card" compared to an annual income of $21k.
Still not good but not quite as bad as one would have thought based on those numbers... and the use of the term "credit card".
There are reasons the cost of finance is so low for the US govt and these reasons are likely sustainable for awhile to come yet. Many of them relate to the Fed being the main purchasers of treasuries and the fact that the debt is in their own currency... which all works of course in the absence of inflation. In the event of inflation then the solution is likely to be that revenue increases in line with inflation while the debt doesn't, even though its cost (for new and rolled over debt) will likely rise.
US Treasury Bond yields are hovering around 2% for a 10 year term (just below ATM). Note this rate is "locked in" for 10 years. Credit card interest rates hover around at least 14% (last time I looked which was a lot of years ago now).
So in redwing's example, the effective value of the current outstanding US govt debt is 2/14x142k = approx $20k on the equivalent "family credit card" compared to an annual income of $21k.
Still not good but not quite as bad as one would have thought based on those numbers... and the use of the term "credit card".
There are reasons the cost of finance is so low for the US govt and these reasons are likely sustainable for awhile to come yet. Many of them relate to the Fed being the main purchasers of treasuries and the fact that the debt is in their own currency... which all works of course in the absence of inflation. In the event of inflation then the solution is likely to be that revenue increases in line with inflation while the debt doesn't, even though its cost (for new and rolled over debt) will likely rise.
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