A disingenous reply as both your threads predicting Australia would be in recession by June 2012 have been locked.
Australia's Forthcoming Construction-Led Property Boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
A disingenous reply as both your threads predicting Australia would be in recession by June 2012 have been locked.
No.
It was continued here:
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=83578
Your response is disingenuous as the original thread was not started on the basis that we would see a recession by June 2012, but the possibility a slow down from the end of the commodity boom could lead to one:
http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=794196&postcount=1
I was reading the your opening post in your later thread.
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=78802
When I started the last thread I was expecting Australia to be in recession within the next 12 months (maybe I'll be wrong, but I still have time )...
Have you changed your mind since voting in the last poll (mine has remained the same, expecting recession) and if so why/why not?
Also post64# in the same thread(the bolding is hobos)
I think we will see a negative GDP print in Q1 or Q2 this year, so personally I think we are already in recession and just waiting for technical confirmation. Maybe I'll be wrong, but until proven wrong I will work on the assumption that I'm not.
I do admit I was wrong - I said back in 2007 that it would begin by the end of 2011, but the data shows it didn't actually begin until early 2012, so I was a month or two out.
No big deal - when you forecast something five years in advance, it's hard to get the date precisely right.
Meanwhile, Sydney house prices hit a new all-time record high last quarter according to the ABS, APM and Residex, so I'm pretty happy there.
But how's that gold price going? Oh yes...
Gold is down about 20% in real terms from its peak in mid 2011. Ouch!
First time I've seen you admit it, good work (admitting you have a problem is the first step). Brings your avg up a little to around 82-92% wrong with predictions
First time I've seen you admit it, good work (admitting you have a problem is the first step). Brings your avg up a little to around 82-92% wrong with predictions
Well, technically, I said I expected the Sydney construction boom to begin probably around 2011, and I could argue that early 2012 is around 2011, but given that the construction boom has definitely kicked off now, I really don't feel I have anything to prove any more so I'm not going to squabble over a few months. So this can be one of the 10-20% of predictions I get wrong, if that makes you feel happier.
Now about that gold price... are you still recommending gold speculators get back on the horse, given that the gold bubble popped a year and a half ago?
This will likely bring your average prediction record up to 85-95% wrong. Read into that what you want
Do you base all your investment decisions on an 18 month period?
Kids Kids Kids
Hiya
Is it only me that you two are sounding like two schoolground kids?
Why don't we just accept these are predictions and personal opinions of two different people? Let's be more mature and contribute positively to a great forum eh?
AND LEAVE THE INTERPRETATIONS TO YOUR READERS...we do have our own minds, you know....
Hiya
Is it only me that you two are sounding like two schoolground kids?
Why don't we just accept these are predictions and personal opinions of two different people? Let's be more mature and contribute positively to a great forum eh?
AND LEAVE THE INTERPRETATIONS TO YOUR READERS...we do have our own minds, you know
....This will likely bring your average prediction record up to 85-95% wrong. Read into that what you want
Do you base all your investment decisions on an 18 month period?
I called the top of the gold bubble over a year ago, and this will go down as another one of the 80-90% of predictions I get right.
House prices are rising, auction clearance rates are strong, sentiment is up, and Sydney house prices are at a new all time peak, no sign of a recession, unemployment is strong, even the USA is recovering.
And gold is crashing.
Where does that leave your own predictions?
Face it... the bears have lost. Again.
All those people who thought Australia had a housing bubble that must crash. Proved wrong. Again.
All those people who sold their homes hoping to buy back cheaper after prices crashed 40% like Steve Keen promised.... ouch!
Some people would rather be right and poor then wrong and rich.
Gold was around the same price now as 12 months ago, so well done you called top of the bubble and the price has moved sideways... 20% is similar sized correction to others in the bullmarket, not even as bad as 2008.
I sold my property end of 2009 & better off for it (not expecting 40% crash), can't speak for others.
Hiya
Is it only me that you two are sounding like two schoolground kids?
Why don't we just accept these are predictions and personal opinions of two different people? Let's be more mature and contribute positively to a great forum eh?
AND LEAVE THE INTERPRETATIONS TO YOUR READERS...we do have our own minds, you know
Mmmmm, some people treat these things like a religion and feel compelled to preach to all from their respective pulpit. They want to indoctrinate you
The 20% fall is just the beginning. The bull market in gold is over, because the world economy is recovering. The gold bubble has popped.
How so?
Adelaide prices today are pretty much the same as they were in late 2009, so if you bought your own house back now you wouldn't even break even, considering agent fees and stamp duty and all the rent you've paid over the past three years. Never mind the hassle of moving house and living under the control of landlords for that time...
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6416.0
ABS House Price Index, Adelaide
Mar-2009 145.1
Jun-2009 149.0
Sep-2009 151.8
Dec-2009 157.6
Mar-2010 159.7
Jun-2010 162.8
Sep-2010 162.3
Dec-2010 163.3
Mar-2011 160.6
Jun-2011 157.1
Sep-2011 156.0
Dec-2011 156.0
Mar-2012 154.6
Jun-2012 155.4
Sep-2012 154.1
Dec-2012 155.3
Not any more, but you did previously expect a significant crash.
Selling your home to rent and buy back later only works if prices fall by a substantial amount.
You wouldn't have done it if you hadn't believed we were going to have a crash.
If you had kept your home you would have paid off a sizable amount of the principal over these past three years, especially with these low interest rates.
The interest on your remaining debt would probably be far lower than what you're currently paying in rent.
You would be well ahead if you hadn't sold your home.
Prices where I sold still around 10% lower + saving in rent vs mortgage over 3 years + appreciation in capital invested elsewhere.
I've never said property crash (only used term for Melbourne alone) despite your accusations.
Yeah right... and in 'my suburb' house prices are up by 600% more than the Sydney average and rents have gone to infinity and the construction boom has made my back garden look like Manhattan...
{Theme Music}
The scene opens with Our Hero rummaging through newspaper articles, tearing out stories with headings of Construction Crash and Building Approvals Collapse and throwing them on an already raging fire.
VO:
We once again return to our story with Shadow, having carefully analysed the market in 2008 and predicted an unprecedented housing construction boom commencing in 10/11, instead being forced to witness an extended collapse in new starts and of building companies over the very same period and beyond.
Shadow's cognitive dissonance once again overwhelms his capacity for embarrassment and he returns to the scene of his initial misfortune, trying desperately to redefine both history and math.
Cut to shot of Our Hero sitting in front of his computer energetically typing his defence utilising flamboyant obfuscation and gratuitous straw men
{/Theme Music}
The scene opens with Our Hero rummaging through newspaper articles, tearing out stories with headings of Construction Crash and Building Approvals Collapse and throwing them on an already raging fire.
VO:
We once again return to our story with Shadow, having carefully analysed the market in 2008 and predicted an unprecedented housing construction boom commencing in 10/11, instead being forced to witness an extended collapse in new starts and of building companies over the very same period and beyond.
Shadow's cognitive dissonance once again overwhelms his capacity for embarrassment and he returns to the scene of his initial misfortune, trying desperately to redefine both history and math.
Cut to shot of Our Hero sitting in front of his computer energetically typing his defence utilising flamboyant obfuscation and gratuitous straw men
{/Theme Music}
Oh well, we'll just have to take your word for it that you were lucky enough to sell in a suburb that happens to be under-performing the Adelaide average by 10%. Nice work.
How's that credit tightening induced crash coming along?
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