Baby Boomers are Poised to Create the Greatest Depression in History

I came across this article yesterday. Does it appear to be accurate?
Any thoughts ?( based in USA)


here is a sample of the story:

Baby Boomers are Poised to Create the Greatest Depression in History
"THE FUTURE:
2012: By looking at the chart it is now quite clear that the USA may only have left a year or so at most of demographically driven growth with an accompanying rise in the economy and DJIA. This is clearly being muted currently by the manmade sub-prime and debt crises and their ongoing aftermath. As noted earlier, there may in fact be no years left and the economic decline could begin at any time. In the chart compare the drop in the demographic curve in the 1930-35 period of the Great Depression to the monstrous drop coming in 2013-2025. 2013 to 2025: The show is well and truly over. Just like Japan in the 1990s, no amount of stimulation or any form of economic mouth-to-mouth is going to make a bit of difference. As the chart shows, from 2013 latest to 2025 the big-spending 45 to 54 year-olds that history clearly shows control the long-term trend of the economy, are only there in relentlessly declining numbers. Just how big is this catastrophic depression going to be financially? In the US stock market crash from 1929 to 1932, the value of stocks dropped approximately $90 billion. When expressed in year 2000 dollars and adjusted to match the size of the US population now versus then (300M vs 123M), this is a drop of about 2.6 Trillion dollars. It directly affected the less than five percent of the US population who owned stocks at the time. The population at large was affected by job loss, bank failures and the ensuing poverty. When the 2013 to 2025 markets’ decline shown in the chart is converted with simple arithmetic to the loss in the value of all stocks in the same year 2000 dollars it is a staggering 14 Trillion dollars. This is over five times as bad as 1929 to 1932. This time the loss will directly affect the more than fifty percent of the US that now own stocks either directly or in mutual funds, pension plans, IRAs and 401K type savings plans. It will be a financial holocaust. In the depths of the Great Depression of the 1930s, US unemployment reached 25%. With a depression that is financially much deeper than the 1930s, what will unemployment reach this time?"

More of the story is here
http://economyincrisis.org/content/...-to-create-the-greatest-depression-in-history
 
just not sure why they are linking in the great depression? They could equally talk about the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, that was bad too.
 
Hi Kathryn,

If I read that chart properly then we're already down at C levels. Doesn't feel too bad. Maybe we won't go via B but will just hold at current levels or lift a little towards C.

Maybe the sub-prime crisis just meant the US won't run all the way to bubble consumer spending at B but track sideways from here and avoid the blow off.

Cheers,
Michael
 
Rob Kiyosaki made the prediction in his book; "Rich Dad's Prophecy" that the BB's would all start taking out their 401K (superannuation) around 2014 -when the first of them start to retire, thus leaving a massive shortfall of funds in versus funds out....

Triggering another share market crash in the process.

Interesting.
 
Rob Kiyosaki made the prediction in his book; "Rich Dad's Prophecy" that the BB's would all start taking out their 401K (superannuation) around 2014 -when the first of them start to retire, thus leaving a massive shortfall of funds in versus funds out....

Triggering another share market crash in the process.

Interesting.

he didn't predict the GFC tho, the flush out has already occurred?
 
This story basically says no matter what we do (USA) there is no way to stop the economic depression that is heading their way. It will be far more devastating than the 1929-1939 one.

If this happens to USA....it happens to all of us.
I don't think there is any reason to panic, if this is actually going to happen, but people should try to prepare.

Last year we didn't buy any properties, and this year I don't want to. (for me, this is amazing)
One of our properties should sell, because of a Rent to Own contract, so I'm thinking having 100k available might be good. "Cash is king", as they say.

I try to impress on my daughter to get her financial house in order, but she really just lives in the moment. For her, buying 20 prs of shoes at 75% off, is being frugal :)

All you hear and read now in the news is more lay offs, bankruptcies, and store closures.
Reader's Digest just declared bankrupcy (chapter 11?)
 
he didn't predict the GFC tho, the flush out has already occurred?
There will probably be a lot less for the BB's to take out by then than if the GFC didn't occur - but the share market may rebound right back to the level everyone predicted it will be at when they will retire - without any crashes to affect the levels.

Those sorts of things (GFC, natural disasters etc) are the wild card, and no-one can predict them; otherwise millions wouldn't have done their shirt as a result of the GFC.

Maybe the perpetrators of the events leading up to the GFC predicted it, made a squill as they cashed out early and went back in to buy up the debris that was left.

RK's is a known situation which will occur (BB retirement), and probably would produce a predicted outcome.
 
For her, buying 20 prs of shoes at 75% off, is being frugal :)
The old; "Buy more and save!" statement.

All you hear and read now in the news is more lay offs, bankruptcies, and store closures.
Reader's Digest just declared bankrupcy (chapter 11?)
Telstra yesterday; 600 jobs to go.

Not closing/bankrupt etc; relocating offshore, but still less jobs here.
 
This story basically says no matter what we do (USA) there is no way to stop the economic depression that is heading their way. It will be far more devastating than the 1929-1939 one.

If this happens to USA....it happens to all of us.
I don't think there is any reason to panic, if this is actually going to happen, but people should try to prepare.

Last year we didn't buy any properties, and this year I don't want to. (for me, this is amazing)
One of our properties should sell, because of a Rent to Own contract, so I'm thinking having 100k available might be good. "Cash is king", as they say.

I try to impress on my daughter to get her financial house in order, but she really just lives in the moment. For her, buying 20 prs of shoes at 75% off, is being frugal :)

All you hear and read now in the news is more lay offs, bankruptcies, and store closures.
Reader's Digest just declared bankrupcy (chapter 11?)

I've been trying to plan for this too. I have the funds ready to go for 2-3 more properties, yet I am not sure I should take the plunge and hold it in the off-set just in case.

Hindsights going to get the best of me no matter what I do :p

Am switching to more short term gain strategies now, though not sure the best way forward for me yet. Anybody else planning for a another more serious recession?
 
Just look up Harry S Dent

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/1fEgz4jKspM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

there are many more youtubes and articles around.

Cheers
 
This is all waffle, last I checked the worlds population is increasing and there are a billion people in China ready to enter the middle class. The world doesn't have to revolve around the USA and their baby boomers.
 
This is all waffle, last I checked the worlds population is increasing and there are a billion people in China ready to enter the middle class. The world doesn't have to revolve around the USA and their baby boomers.

China also has some future issues to contend with regarding an ageing population. Their family planning policy introduced around 1980, (one child for urban and two for rural policy), could lead to social and economic development problems unless they make some changes.
 
I think his whole argument comes unstuck when you look at this graph.
There is a massive population younger than the Baby Boomer's.
Yet his argument seems to be that when the BB stop spending, the inevitable crash will happen.
With no data to back me up, my observation is that younger generations just love to spend their disposable income on the latest "things".
So, will there be the greatest depression in history this year?
Maybe yes maybe no, but the argument stated in the article is very flawed.
babyboomers2007.png
 
Typical Harry Dent stuff. It looks bad, but doesn't account for people working longer, living longer, and societal changes.

Dent often gets the direction of the market right, but never the magnitude.
 
I have read Rich Dad's Prophecy. It made a lot of sense at the time. I also think it didn't factor in the GFC. Those same people's 401Ks will be so depleted now that drawing out the final dregs wont make much difference to the overall economy.

I also believe that what happens in the US only makes a minimal difference to us here in Oz. Many writers will go all out for doom and gloom but I am not giving them too much of my limited brain cell activity.
 
Me too, but we have obviously dodged the full gamut of the last major crisis (GFC) the US suffered/suffering no?

Resources got us thru but now with that coming off the boil.....or is it with Chindia still a major growth partner...?

hard to say what will happen next really.
 
I have read Rich Dad's Prophecy. It made a lot of sense at the time. I also think it didn't factor in the GFC. Those same people's 401Ks will be so depleted now that drawing out the final dregs wont make much difference to the overall economy.

I also believe that what happens in the US only makes a minimal difference to us here in Oz. Many writers will go all out for doom and gloom but I am not giving them too much of my limited brain cell activity.
There is a possible wave effect of neg sentiment that could flow around a number of other Countries - here one of them?

Sentiment is a very real intangible. :eek:
 
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