Berwick - Chase

[fuister]

Hi,

I have read a lot of talk about Pakenham, Cranbourne. I know that Berwick is one of the smaller suburts on the south east zone, but what do you all think of the growth in the coming 5 years?

I just purchased a property there which I intend to live in, it is in the Chase estate. I am aware that there are quite a lot going on in the Casey Area, which is where Berwick is for those that are not aware.

My key points for Berwick:
1) Good Education - Haileybury, Monash, TAFE
2) Improving transport - East Link, Pakenham Bypass, Dandenong rail upgrade
3) Close to transit cities - Dandenong, Cranbourne and Officer(??).
4) Land is getting more scarce - This is only exclusive to Berwick (I heard from some friends that zoned residential land is decreasing)
5) Demographics - Did a demographic report from domain and real estate, and the income per household is quite much higher than surrounding suburbs, indicating it is a place where the more wealthy would like to buy.
6) Pros for the Chase estate - its new, good landscape and a lot of families. I think this is a pro. I might be reading a bit too much into it, but I tend to find areas with families tend to fetch higher prices. (why? because families usually live in their homes for the long term and hence better maintenance and willing to pay more for a nice area).
7) Part of the melbourne 2030 plan thingamagic.

Above are some of the key points why I choose to buy in Berwick. I am aware there are cons as well. The biggest con for me is the distance from the city and probably the relatively lower price of the surrouding suburbs. (Mainly Pakenham and Cranbourne)

Please comment. Your comments on Berwick in particular the Chase estate would be much appreciated. Although it is too late for me to pull out of the purchase now, I would still like to know where I have gone wrong in my assessment and not repeat in future purchases.

Thanks

 

[The Y-man]

Although it is too late for me to pull out of the purchase now, I would still like to know where I have gone wrong in my assessment and not repeat in future purchases.

Thanks

Nobody will know if you made a good purchase or not - until 5-10 years into the future!

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[marg4000]

It sounds to me as if you are suffering from that well known malady, "buyer's remorse". This sets in when the excitement of house hunting, the dramas of signing contracts etc dies down a bit, reality hits and the buyer is left focusing on the negatives of the deal rather than the positives. Another symptom is frantically checking websites as you are sure there is a better buy out there that you have just missed out on.

This is closely aligned to "sellers remorse". The seller of the property you have just bought is probably ALSO searching the websites, sure that he/she has sold the property too cheaply, and would have got MUCH more had they only held out another month or so.

The cure?

Focus on the positives. You have set out 7 good reasons to buy, and the only negative is the distance from the city. I don't think you have gone wrong at all. And not everyone works in the city these days.

So long as you intend to keep the property for at least 5 years, you will do fine.

Keep it longer, and eventually the figures become almost comical. We live in a home worth over $500K (4 bed 2 bath 3 cars) in Brisbane. Purchased 1979, for $49,500. Had it been $52K we would not have been able to afford it.

BTW, congratulations on your new home.
Marg

 

[feihong]

Hi,

I have read a lot of talk about Pakenham, Cranbourne. I know that Berwick is one of the smaller suburts on the south east zone, but what do you all think of the growth in the coming 5 years?

I just purchased a property there which I intend to live in, it is in the Chase estate. I am aware that there are quite a lot going on in the Casey Area, which is where Berwick is for those that are not aware.

My key points for Berwick:
1) Good Education - Haileybury, Monash, TAFE
2) Improving transport - East Link, Pakenham Bypass, Dandenong rail upgrade
3) Close to transit cities - Dandenong, Cranbourne and Officer(??).
4) Land is getting more scarce - This is only exclusive to Berwick (I heard from some friends that zoned residential land is decreasing)
5) Demographics - Did a demographic report from domain and real estate, and the income per household is quite much higher than surrounding suburbs, indicating it is a place where the more wealthy would like to buy.
6) Pros for the Chase estate - its new, good landscape and a lot of families. I think this is a pro. I might be reading a bit too much into it, but I tend to find areas with families tend to fetch higher prices. (why? because families usually live in their homes for the long term and hence better maintenance and willing to pay more for a nice area).
7) Part of the melbourne 2030 plan thingamagic.

Above are some of the key points why I choose to buy in Berwick. I am aware there are cons as well. The biggest con for me is the distance from the city and probably the relatively lower price of the surrouding suburbs. (Mainly Pakenham and Cranbourne)

Please comment. Your comments on Berwick in particular the Chase estate would be much appreciated. Although it is too late for me to pull out of the purchase now, I would still like to know where I have gone wrong in my assessment and not repeat in future purchases.

Thanks

I've posted a few things about The Chase a while ago (you can do a search). I don't think you have to worry too much, as I do agree that The Chase is a bit different to other new estates based on the same reasons you've outlined. Judging from a few sales on our street, the price is definitely going up faster than the surrounding neighbourhoods (say Narre Warren South). This is further supported by the fact that our neighbours have moved from inner/mid-ring suburbs (Hawthorn, Glen Waverley, etc) to retire here. In general, I strongly believe that Berwick has the highest chance of experiencing the ripple effect within the City of Casey area.

 

[The Y-man]

Fuister,

I guess the key thing is this: assuming you have made the right choice (and it sounds like you have), what are your plans?


Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[Bradsdad]

Hi,

I have read a lot of talk about Pakenham, Cranbourne. I know that Berwick is one of the smaller suburts on the south east zone, but what do you all think of the growth in the coming 5 years?

I just purchased a property there which I intend to live in, it is in the Chase estate. I am aware that there are quite a lot going on in the Casey Area, which is where Berwick is for those that are not aware.

My key points for Berwick:
1) Good Education - Haileybury, Monash, TAFE
2) Improving transport - East Link, Pakenham Bypass, Dandenong rail upgrade
3) Close to transit cities - Dandenong, Cranbourne and Officer(??).
4) Land is getting more scarce - This is only exclusive to Berwick (I heard from some friends that zoned residential land is decreasing)
5) Demographics - Did a demographic report from domain and real estate, and the income per household is quite much higher than surrounding suburbs, indicating it is a place where the more wealthy would like to buy.
6) Pros for the Chase estate - its new, good landscape and a lot of families. I think this is a pro. I might be reading a bit too much into it, but I tend to find areas with families tend to fetch higher prices. (why? because families usually live in their homes for the long term and hence better maintenance and willing to pay more for a nice area).
7) Part of the melbourne 2030 plan thingamagic.

Above are some of the key points why I choose to buy in Berwick. I am aware there are cons as well. The biggest con for me is the distance from the city and probably the relatively lower price of the surrouding suburbs. (Mainly Pakenham and Cranbourne)

Please comment. Your comments on Berwick in particular the Chase estate would be much appreciated. Although it is too late for me to pull out of the purchase now, I would still like to know where I have gone wrong in my assessment and not repeat in future purchases.

Thanks

I'm of the opinion Pakenham is on the move. It has grown so much over the last few years and large chains have moved/are moving into the are.
Berwick had had reasonable growth and I think before you know it you'll feel like you're in the heart of suburbia. Cranbourne maybe a different story in regards to rate of growth.

 

[timmyboy]

It sounds to me as if you are suffering from that well known malady, "buyer's remorse". This sets in when the excitement of house hunting, the dramas of signing contracts etc dies down a bit, reality hits and the buyer is left focusing on the negatives of the deal rather than the positives. Another symptom is frantically checking websites as you are sure there is a better buy out there that you have just missed out on.

This is closely aligned to "sellers remorse". The seller of the property you have just bought is probably ALSO searching the websites, sure that he/she has sold the property too cheaply, and would have got MUCH more had they only held out another month or so.

The cure?

Focus on the positives. You have set out 7 good reasons to buy, and the only negative is the distance from the city. I don't think you have gone wrong at all. And not everyone works in the city these days.

So long as you intend to keep the property for at least 5 years, you will do fine.

Keep it longer, and eventually the figures become almost comical. We live in a home worth over $500K (4 bed 2 bath 3 cars) in Brisbane. Purchased 1979, for $49,500. Had it been $52K we would not have been able to afford it.

BTW, congratulations on your new home.
Marg

good post I reckon,

I liken the feeling to going out and buying a new tv/car/dishwasher/mattress only to see it advertised 2-4 weeks later for a lot less than you paid.

A way to help lessen the pain is to sit back and ask yourself "if I didn't see that price, would I care? I was happy with the decision at the time and the only thing that has changed is that I have seen that I could have got a better deal later on...."
But that is always a possibility - however you could always possibly miss out on a deal too...?

If you're happy with what you've got at the time - go for it I reckon.

As pointed out - in 10 years time you'll be laughing.

Tim

 

[Bradsdad]

good post I reckon,

I liken the feeling to going out and buying a new tv/car/dishwasher/mattress only to see it advertised 2-4 weeks later for a lot less than you paid.

Had to laugh at that. I saw that someone paid $149 on E-bay for a kids laptop that is sold in stores for around $60. I bet she'll know the feeling if she ever finds out.

Sorry to go "off-topic" but i couldn't resist. You may all now continue as you were

 

[fuister]

Thanks guys for your responses. Much appreciated

MARG4000: Thats a good way of putting it. I wouldnt say I am remorseful or anything like that. But bearing in mind that this is my first property, I have my doubts. I guess you could say this was how I felt when I purchased my first few shares. After a while, I am more confident of my assessments and therefore doubt less (if only a little).

Y-Man:
The plan is to move and live there for 5 years or more. Then have to see where to go form there. A bit too far to predict at this point in time. But if possible, I wouldnt want to sell.

 

[The Y-man]

Y-Man:
The plan is to move and live there for 5 years or more. Then have to see where to go form there. A bit too far to predict at this point in time. But if possible, I wouldnt want to sell.

You see, the beauty of this situation is that even if you significantly stuffed up, and the place even dropped in value over the next 5 years, short of a major financial disaster, you would pretty much not feel anything.

Cheers,

The Y-man

 

[DavidMc]

I think Berwick is a reasonable choice. It's a nice averageville where average people will live and buy. I have investments in Narre Warren South and Berwick.

As you know the City of Casey has been growing at a ridiculous rate for many many years. It has the highest percentage of 0-4 year olds in the country. I believe many people in the surrounding area will stay in Casey most of their lives and see Berwick as the place to 'upgrade to'. I know several examples of people who have done the Cranbourne North -> NWS (ok estate) -> NWS (better estate like Berwick Springs) upgrade and the final destination is Berwick.

Berwick is unique in the area as it's a more established township (I only just found out that it has the oldest running show in all of Australia!). Many of the newer cheaper estates lack the character that Berwick has and whilst land supply is still plentiful in the area there are only certain spots in around the village, leafy Olde Berwick and the train line.

 

[fuister]

You see, the beauty of this situation is that even if you significantly stuffed up, and the place even dropped in value over the next 5 years, short of a major financial disaster, you would pretty much not feel anything.

Cheers,

The Y-man

Y-man: Well, thats true in a way if I am happy to own one property for the rest o my life. Not that true if I want to build up equity for my next purchase.

DavidMC:

Thanks for your comment. What is NWS?
Interesting fact there, casey has the highest number of 0-4 year olds.
And what is that oldest show?

 

[fuister]

Also one more thing that I read from API. Apparently road infrastructure tend to affect prices of property in 3 stages. At each stage, prices increase slightly.
1) announcement of contract
2) Construction
3) Completion and usage

What do you all think of that theory? And if so, would that mean that Areas like Berwick, Pakenham could possibly see an increase due to the coming completeion and usage of the bypass?

 

[DavidMc]

NWS = Narre Warren South.

Correction, Victoria's oldest show (not Australia's) is the Berwick show - http://www.casey.vic.gov.au/mediareleases2005/article.asp?Item=4714

 

[sparky23]

Hi Fuister

There is a lot happening in the area, I have invested in Pakenham opposite the man made rowing lake at the top end of the price range with a 3 storey executive townhouse which I believe will do well, particularly as I have only put $5,000 down more than 6 months ago and nothing else until settlement in November.

 

[pi2012]

Berwick is definitely picking up.
We bought our PPOR in Berwick in 2006 (not in chase..its near Sweeney Reserve) and seen a growth of 10% since then. Hope to see more growth this year.

 

[fuister]

Thanks for your feedback Sparky. Much appreciated.

 

[fuister]

Does anyone know much about the propose Casey technology centre or something?

I read that in the Melbourne 2030 plan

 

[keneth]

Last week berwick had the most volume of sales.

The majority of people living in berwick are below 14 years of age.... So it is definatley a place where families are growing up.

In the last 12 months growth has been 1.2 percent compared to melbourne decrease of 6.5 percent.

85% of the market is made up of home owners, and only 15% is investors...

The median house price is 342,500 and the homes are selling at a 6.5 percent discount to there advertised priced!

All information from domain.com.au

I am a buyer in berwick in the latter part of 2009 when first home owners stuff settles down.

I know the area well, and berwick is my pick out of narre warren and pakenham. There are pockets in all these suburbs where there are 600k plus houses... but for me the average berwick home is the best. definatley has a country feel about the town, and still very close to CBD via freeway.

I beleive this is one suburb young families will continue to buy to as an alternative to Rowville which has a median over 400k now.

 

[fuister]

Yup. We bought in that area last February and are pretty happy with the way things are going. A new school has been built in the estate. And there is also a new select entry school currently being built next to Monash. Given there already is a Chisholm TAFE there, that intersection on Clyde road looks like its becoming a bit of an education hub.