Best way to gauge "average joe" economy?

No, not "Joe the plumber". Well, maybe.

I spend a decent amount of time on forums, reading newsletters and so on. It appears to me that many others on this forum do the same.

I feel I've become detached from what is happening the "average" person on the street. Spending time in this forum gives a biased view because we always are talking about what and when to invest next.

I'm looking for way for gauging what it happening to the "average joe" on the street and their attitudes towards property and share investing.

I'm already aware of the Consumer Sentiment index. Any other tools that people use?
 
I'm already aware of the Consumer Sentiment index. Any other tools that people use?

Watch Today Tonight and A Current Affair. I'm being serious. Those kind of shows and news in general always run what they think the majority of people are most interested in at the time.

If you're a capitalist at heart, pick up a socialist newspaper once in a while, just to see things from another perspective (or to see what you're up against!).

Likewise if you call yourself left-wing, make a point of reading some right-wing media occasionally, and visa-versa.
 
I agree about the detachment.

The fear / greed cycle is strong on this forum and spending so much time here it affects me.

Just wandering around my local market (West End Markets) it seems like theres no such thing as a credit crunch. Tons of people selling everything from frozen salmon to wooden toys to cane juice to fortune tellers. And tons of buyers. Really hard to be pessimistic in that atmosphere.
 
Watch Today Tonight and A Current Affair. I'm being serious. Those kind of shows and news in general always run what they think the majority of people are most interested in at the time.

Good idea. Thanks. I don't ever watch those two shows. But I see that they do have web sites:
http://aca.ninemsn.com.au/
http://au.todaytonight.yahoo.com/

Perhaps worth visiting periodically. I find that those shows tend to be quite sensationalist but they are probably still closer to the "person on the street".

Does anyone have any other indicators they use?
 
Every two months or so I go shopping in a shopping centre in, shall we say, one of the least financially secure areas of town. It's a very good guide for me as to how the "real world" is coping (or not, as I see recently).

Without this, I suspect my perspective would be severely tainted by the lack of 'slowdown' that I'm seeing in my typically affluent local community.
 
pop into any major retail outlet - Harvey Norman, JB, Big W, Bunnings or any major shopping centre and see how full the car parks are.
If this is any guage most seem to oblivious to what is happening around them.
What is a more true reflection, what is said on forums, or what is actually happening on the street?
 
pop into any major retail outlet - Harvey Norman, JB, Big W, Bunnings or any major shopping centre and see how full the car parks are.
If this is any guage most seem to oblivious to what is happening around them.
What is a more true reflection, what is said on forums, or what is actually happening on the street?

Yep - I have noticed the freeway near where I live being a lot quieter than usual.. Much easier to drive and less pollution - so has advantages!
 
i just talk to my dad - he's good at bringing me down.

my gauge is to sit at karrinyup shops and see how many peole have shopping trolleys full of consumer items, or just re-useable green bags.

people still seem happy to pay $4 for a burnt coffee though, so the economy can't be spatchcock just yet.

speaking of which, i have a meeting now at Gloria Jeans. $4.50 for a stupid flavoured latte. i think i might just have a water - oh wait....that's $7.50 a litre at the moment.
 
I head for Belmont Forum here in Perth, I consider it to be the heartland and an excellent indicator of the health of working class Australia. No Myer or DJs here, only Kmart and BigW.

I'll never forget people queuing from 4 in the morning to be first in line for an interview at the then new Sizzler in the depths of the recession in 1991. The line ran for miles.
 
i should think people waiting in line for 4 hours to get 94 cent petrol in sydney would be a fair indicator. granted the people at the end of the line ended up getting screwed anyway (suckers) but thats besides the point.

in times of economic confidence, people would be able to do the math and see that if they worked for four hours they could make much more than they would save by lining up in a queue for 4 hours for cheap petrol. of course since they probably kept their cars idling the whole time they probably ate up more money in gas than they saved.

what does this say about the state of the economy? very little. about the intellect of our fellow citizens... alas, all too much.
 
Watch Today Tonight and A Current Affair.

are they a symptom or a cause? tonight was about the luxury goods flooding into auction... prime example a 5 year old holden which was worth $80k now going for $15k. "oh boy where do i sign up? a clapped out holden worth $80k, yahoo!"
 
My profession is (mostly) Golf as most here would know by now. We have recently bought another business outside of this industry, but my wider field of expertise is golf (retail/management/teaching).

I've been involved in it as a career since 1979, so I've seen a number of different economic climates, and they affect the golf industry. Golf is a good indicator, because a big cross-section of the community play, and is a game that many tradies, teachers, retirees, housewives, kids and professional people play.

Golf is a "discretionary spending" activity, so any downturn in the economy has an effect on the activity of the industry as people pull back on this sort of spending;

1. Total players - numbers are down currently across the country.
2. Memberships - also down, and we have seen a drop off in our own Club Memberships this year. Our Membership is older (most are) and many are retired, living on fixed incomes and/or super. Everyone seems to be whinging how much of hit a they've taken from the stock market crash (don't pin your hopes on super).
3. Retail sales - down over the entire industry.
4. Restaurant and bar sales - down.
5. Lessons - down.
6. A few golf courses have gone broke in recent years. Many new projects rely on real estate sales attached to the course to fund the project, and these are down.

The current view through the microscope is that people are pulling back their spending, not renewing memberships unless they are very regular players, less equipment being bought etc. The industry is still strong, but quieter than normal.

People are still out there, but the numbers have dropped, so I reckon this is indicative of the wider community; people will be cutting back on things like holidays, new cars, clothes, restaurants etc.
 
I'm looking for way for gauging what it happening to the "average joe" on the street and their attitudes towards property and share investing.

Go out, to the park, to the shopping centre's, to sporting venues, to clubs, to parties, to see family, to see friends and talk to people.
 
well - that was a shock - the house over the road has just gone up for sale.

thing is, it's only 1/3 built, the builders were working on it only last week and suddenly last night there's a handwritten sign outside saying "for sale as is ph (mob number)". not even an agent.

i'll have to find out the goss today.
 
Harvey Norman Sales

I guess that Harvey Norman sales figures are also a pretty good indicator. Gerry Harvey is going to release weekly figures for the next weeks.

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...ease-written-sales-figures-20081014-50oi.html

Makes me think about an old idea I had. What if every listed company have reporting from their accounting systems on-line and made available to the public. So you could see a blow-by-blow on the health of the company. Now that would be transparent.
 
We use our video shop as a gauge.

3 years ago we had to get change a couple of times a week. Lots of people paying with notes.
1 year ago we had to bank change once a week, mainly 20c, eftpos had increase but overall sales still similar only up a little bit.
Now, $6.95 on Credit Card, eftpos going up, overall sales similar, still heaps of coin coming in.

The shop is in a middle / lower suburb probably very average Joe. Morphett Vale, SA.

I reckon 3 to 4 years ago people still had "cash" left in equity loans, that has dried up now for most of them. We are into the living off the credit card stituation now.

Cheers
Graeme
 
well - that was a shock - the house over the road has just gone up for sale.

just come back from taking the dog for a walk. we live (rent) in a 2yr old estate of around 100 blocks, about 60% built ... overnight 5 blocks of land went back on the market - added to the 4 blocks that went back on last month ... looks like some serious margin calls are coming thru.
 
Well....I have noticed these things in the not so average Joe suburbs...

1. Opened the Domain RE section of the SMH and noticed almost 3 pages of house listings in Mosman! :eek:

2. Shopped at Aldi's in Chatswood.....takes about 15-20 minutes to get to the front of the queue.....used to take about 5-7 minutes about 3 months ago. A lot more people going there!

3. Restaurants and Cafes have lots of specials around the lower North Shore!

4. Car dealers are offering used cars with less than 30k kms and two years old at a 40% discount to what you would pay for new ones.

A sign of the times....I supose?

Cheers
Sash
 
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