BHP pulls out of Olympic Dam expansion

[Mick and Andrea]

Wow I'm surprised how everyone has gone to pieces.
Some of the post sound like people have been watching today tonight/ACA.
I just put something under offer today in whyalla. Positive cashflow, room for reno, currently under rented, divorced couple want out.....10 years from now ill be betting that it will be a golden egg if i can pull it off.
Who cares if BHP doesn't go ahead.
Keep your head people.
Remember the basics and don't ever buy something banking on BHP or anyone for that matter sprinkling magic fairy dust on your property.

 

[weg]

Who cares if BHP doesn't go ahead.

Everyone but you and Mick, or you and Andrea?

And the Greens?

 

[Mick and Andrea]

Maybe I'm a bit of a hippy, trippy, greeny at heart.
Just saying that everyone's focusing on the pot hole and and not the road ahead.

My moto is if in doubt gas it. Oh, and don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Mick

 

[weg]

Maybe I'm a bit of a hippy, trippy, greeny at heart.
Just saying that everyone's focusing on the pot hole and and not the road ahead.

My moto is if in doubt gas it. Oh, and don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Mick

I'm viewing this disappointment, less from the RE /investing in local towns in close proximity to the mines perspective, and more from the statewide angle - the flow on effect that this mine would have had on the rest of the South Australian economy, once mining had commenced, would have been huge.

I can't say I've spoken to one person that didn't think it was a big deal.

 

[Mick and Andrea]

Contrary to what the media will lead you to believe SA does have other projects on the go.
OK none of them are of a 30 Billion dollar scale.
What I heard out of Mr BHP on the idiot box the other night was that they were not going to announce any major project for the next 12 months. It doesn't mean that in 2-5 or 10 years time that won't do something there.
Agreed SA will probably simmer along slowly like Victoria without the injection of cash that has bought WA and QLD such prosperity over the years.
I just think there is no point whipping it up like the media do.

 

[Of The Vultures]

I agree with Mick/Andrea. The project is not cancelled, it is delayed. So this has just bought me some time to get in early.

 

[Aaron_C]

I agree with Mick/Andrea. The project is not cancelled, it is delayed. So this has just bought me some time to get in early.

Olympic Dam has been 'delayed' since BHP bought WMC Resources back in early 2000s. How long do you have to wait?

 

[Of The Vultures]

How long do you have to wait?

I haven't been waiting quite that long, my journey's only just beginning though.
Still, I look at what I missed with WA/QLD and I'd rather be in early this time.

 

[jim1964]

You will be waiting for a while then..................

 

[Mick and Andrea]

All the more reason to spread your portfolio.

 

[kskyring]

sell when others want to buy... buy when others want to sell.

Marius Kloppers on Inside Business today discussing Olympic Dam..."We still think this is a wonderful ore body that is going to be a very major copper mine in due course." This is consistent with BHPs statement on Wednesday. The media has gone to town on "CANCELLING" the expansion. The investors will be spooked for a short while. Once the media hype settles and the main message begins to re-emerge, the propsects and growth will soon return in Roxby Downs. Kloppers also states today that copper is BHPs main mineral focus for future. As china move from industrialisation to become more consumerable focus, the demand will hit copper. BHP will continue to focus on iron ore as a priority in next few years before moving to capex investment in copper projects. By then they will have hoped to reduce capex cost for the expansion through improved leaching technology.
Lets not forget they have spent 10's of millions of dollars in the past few months buying more explroation licences around the roxby area. Also Woomera is opened for exploration which has prospects for more copper discovery.
The expansion will go ahead, it will be a question of when and how big. I tip it will get much more momentum again in around 2-3 years time once the prefeasibility study is finalised and made public.

The next few months will be the best time to buy in Roxby.

 

[FormerLurker]

Olympic Dam has been 'delayed' since BHP bought WMC Resources back in early 2000s. How long do you have to wait?

Best guess 2015 at the earliest when copper prices are anticipated to rise - bit early to buy in now if that's the case better letting people hold and see nothing happening and try and sell out IMO.

 

[knightm]

sell when others want to buy... buy when others want to sell.

Marius Kloppers on Inside Business today discussing Olympic Dam..."We still think this is a wonderful ore body that is going to be a very major copper mine in due course." This is consistent with BHPs statement on Wednesday. The media has gone to town on "CANCELLING" the expansion. The investors will be spooked for a short while. Once the media hype settles and the main message begins to re-emerge, the propsects and growth will soon return in Roxby Downs. Kloppers also states today that copper is BHPs main mineral focus for future. As china move from industrialisation to become more consumerable focus, the demand will hit copper. BHP will continue to focus on iron ore as a priority in next few years before moving to capex investment in copper projects. By then they will have hoped to reduce capex cost for the expansion through improved leaching technology.
Lets not forget they have spent 10's of millions of dollars in the past few months buying more explroation licences around the roxby area. Also Woomera is opened for exploration which has prospects for more copper discovery.
The expansion will go ahead, it will be a question of when and how big. I tip it will get much more momentum again in around 2-3 years time once the prefeasibility study is finalised and made public.

The next few months will be the best time to buy in Roxby.

True - evidence is over a long time frame this will still be a big mine and booming area and that the global demand for copper will continue to rise as china and india gentrify. I have no doubts of that over a 20-30 yr period, it just would have been nice (for those of us already in) to see a dramatic rise in vals and rents when the expansion started in earnest sooner rather than later. C'est la vie.

 

[Aaron Sice]

the sky was falling when they pulled out of Ravensthorpe as well.

easy come easy go.

 

[Peter 14.7]

Would normally be happy to let it go Peter, but since you were so arrogant:

"However, economists said the Olympic Dam decision would not have a direct impact on economic growth or the federal budget this year."

http://afr.com/p/national/ferguson_sparks_labor_row_over_resources_68cOUB2KTtwMXXq7S6NMQN

Your right it was arrogant of me, I apologise.

We obviously see different things in the various media and economist reports.

Lets leave it there. I was wrong to say you were wrong.

Regards, Peter 14.7

 

[MichaelW]

Yep, no surprises here really. I work for OneSteel and went to our annual lead team financial review presentation last week. Noone there was surprised by this development. BHP have been punting this one for a long time and its probably not the last time it will be considered either.

Bit of a bugger for all of us exposed to the mining boom, but China isn't dead and nor is the boom. Its just the rate of growth that's finally tapering.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[Corey Batt]

Yep, no surprises here really. I work for OneSteel and went to our annual lead team financial review presentation last week. Noone there was surprised by this development. BHP have been punting this one for a long time and its probably not the last time it will be considered either.

Bit of a bugger for all of us exposed to the mining boom, but China isn't dead and nor is the boom. Its just the rate of growth that's finally tapering.

Cheers,
Michael

The Mrs workplace has contracts with Onesteel and BHP, pretty much echo'd the same sentiments for a while. It'll keep plodding along, I would be genuinely surprised if it ever goes beyond being a pipe-dream which comes up every now and again...

 

[Dazz]

Sorry Peter but I dispute that will happen, ever. It didn't happen when Howard won his mandate for the GST - and I don't believe it will happen this time if TA wins, even with a landslide.

I think you're right Aaron. The DD will be left hanging over the Labor and Green Senators as a big hammer over their heads if they don't play nicely. The Greens won't play nicely.....that is a given.

From what I read into the tea leaves, the coalition will have a thumping victory in the Lower House, and the really really interesting bit in the next Federal election will be how well the 40 odd Senators fair that are up for re-election.

Depending on how big the swing against Labor is, there is a slight possibility that the Liberals might just scrape through with a working majority in the Senate. If that is the case, they'll get through whatever they want.

.....but honestly, does anyone with half a brain really expect the Labor Senators to reject the Liberal / National coalition policies that would have been overwhelming endorsed and mandated by the people.

By tiddling around the edges, watering stuff down and generally p1ssing everyone off who is in power, they jeopardize their very position in the Senate. They won't do that.

No, I fully expect the Labor senators to roll over and play nice when the bills swing thru to abolish both the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax.

Julia will retire after winning Lalor again, and the Unions will swing another one of their stooges in to replace her at the forced by-election, which Labor will easily win in that seat.

I reckon Wayne Swan won't be there, and I reckon both Anthony Albanese and Stephen Smith might have trouble hanging on with low margins.

The next Parliament is going to look soooo different compared to what it does now.

Don't be surprised if a swag of Labor old guard retire and don't even stand for re-election. The prospect of being out in the cold, stuck in opposition for at least 2, maybe three terms (9 years at least) wouldn't be too attractive I wouldn't of thought.

Expect wholesale change-out on the Labor benches. They'll have to back up the 22 seat Coaster bus, I reckon they'll have trouble filling it.

 

[Peter 14.7]

I think you're right Aaron. The DD will be left hanging over the Labor and Green Senators as a big hammer over their heads if they don't play nicely. The Greens won't play nicely.....that is a given.

From what I read into the tea leaves, the coalition will have a thumping victory in the Lower House, and the really really interesting bit in the next Federal election will be how well the 40 odd Senators fair that are up for re-election.

Depending on how big the swing against Labor is, there is a slight possibility that the Liberals might just scrape through with a working majority in the Senate. If that is the case, they'll get through whatever they want.

.....but honestly, does anyone with half a brain really expect the Labor Senators to reject the Liberal / National coalition policies that would have been overwhelming endorsed and mandated by the people.

By tiddling around the edges, watering stuff down and generally p1ssing everyone off who is in power, they jeopardize their very position in the Senate. They won't do that.

No, I fully expect the Labor senators to roll over and play nice when the bills swing thru to abolish both the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax.

Julia will retire after winning Lalor again, and the Unions will swing another one of their stooges in to replace her at the forced by-election, which Labor will easily win in that seat.

I reckon Wayne Swan won't be there, and I reckon both Anthony Albanese and Stephen Smith might have trouble hanging on with low margins.

The next Parliament is going to look soooo different compared to what it does now.

Don't be surprised if a swag of Labor old guard retire and don't even stand for re-election. The prospect of being out in the cold, stuck in opposition for at least 2, maybe three terms (9 years at least) wouldn't be too attractive I wouldn't of thought.

Expect wholesale change-out on the Labor benches. They'll have to back up the 22 seat Coaster bus, I reckon they'll have trouble filling it.

Dazz, as always an astute assessment and yes, you and Aaron you may be right.

BUT

I remember when Howard got the GST in, in 1999, Labor opposed it, even though he clearly had the mandate. It is was the Democrats who did the deal. Now I don't see the Greens doing any deal on CT or MRRT because a) it does not benefit them one bit with their voters, b) Meg Less deal killed the Democrats, ironically for actually leading!. Lesson Learnt.

The Greens can much easily rant and rave and do nothing. It is Labor that has to do the deal if TA does not get control. Will they?

And will TA be tempted to go back to the Polls when they want to play negotiations if it gets him another three years and the Senate. Soooo tempting.

AND as you said: Labor will be in disarray. Have no funds or base to fight another Campaign. Julia will have resigned after saying she will not in the Campaign, further adding fuel to the fire for the Libs.

And the Libs will have got rid or tried to get rid of the CT, the MRRT, and "talked the good talk" about reviving our country and then release figures how much we really are in debt once Treasury is on their side. Jobs will be going and the Mines slowing.

As set up very nicely.

AND lastly, why not DD?

Worst case, status quo. Libs win back the Reps , maybe lose one or 2 but they can afford that and if the don't have the Senate why not try again, if they don't get it they have lost nothing and Labor is the dealer.

Regards Peter 14.7

 

[Dazz]

Yes, to me, it's a fascinating set of circumstances Peter.

The House of Reps will be a bit ho-hum, nothing really to see down there except a sea of blue. The Green will be gone and the amount of reds will struggle to have a cricket match amongst themselves.

No, the really interesting bit will be the Senate.

As you know, there are 76 of the "unrepresentative swill" up there as Keating so famously referred to the Senators.

2 from the ACT and 2 from the NT who each are up for election every 3 years with the Lower house boys.

Then you've got 12 Senators each from the six states, making 72....but they are there for 6 year terms, with half of them up for election every second federal election, but regardless of the varying lengths of the lower house terms, they serve out their 6 years, always changing out on July 1st.

The mob who went in when Kevin Rudd swept to power in late 2007 will be up for re-election in ~ Sept / Oct 2013, and will change out on July 1st, 2014.

So, you've got 36 normal Senators and the 4 Territory Senators up for re-election. I don't know their party allegiances....that would take a little digging.