Blue Mountains, NSW
- Thread starter sanchez
- Start date
No they haven't (that I am aware of), but Sydney has never been so expensive before either. With Sydney becoming unaffordable for many, I think it's becoming attractive for first home buyers (its still reasonably close to Sydney) and even retirees who sell their homes in Sydney, buy up there and have cash left over to live off.
This is much the same as has been happening in the south coast and central coast of NSW.
What I mean by prices being sufficiently close to Sydney is not that they will ever be on a par, but that until they are closer, there will still be an incentive for people to move there.
Sanchez
This is much the same as has been happening in the south coast and central coast of NSW.
What I mean by prices being sufficiently close to Sydney is not that they will ever be on a par, but that until they are closer, there will still be an incentive for people to move there.
Sanchez
Duncan
I carried out that excercise for all major regions in NSW as well as regions of Sydney. Unfortunately I only had data from 1994.
The relative growth in all areas of Sydney followed a similar trendline. The Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Central Coast followed almost the same pattern as the rest of Sydney (i.e. reasonably consistent growth until 2000, then a sharp increase), however appeared to be lagging by roughly 1-2 years. The relative growth between 1994 and 2003 for these areas has not yet reached that of the Sydney suburbs. Whether it will or not is a different question.
Most other regional areas followed a different pattern to the rest of Sydney, i.e. very little growth up until 1999-2000, then with a sharp rise to 2003 - the sharpest being on the South Coast.
Seems fairly obvious really, but worth doing anyway.
Sanchez
I carried out that excercise for all major regions in NSW as well as regions of Sydney. Unfortunately I only had data from 1994.
The relative growth in all areas of Sydney followed a similar trendline. The Blue Mountains, Wollongong and Central Coast followed almost the same pattern as the rest of Sydney (i.e. reasonably consistent growth until 2000, then a sharp increase), however appeared to be lagging by roughly 1-2 years. The relative growth between 1994 and 2003 for these areas has not yet reached that of the Sydney suburbs. Whether it will or not is a different question.
Most other regional areas followed a different pattern to the rest of Sydney, i.e. very little growth up until 1999-2000, then with a sharp rise to 2003 - the sharpest being on the South Coast.
Seems fairly obvious really, but worth doing anyway.
Sanchez
Sanchez ,residex have forecast Faulconbridge for 15% pa over the next 5 years so im tipping John Edwards has done the research for you.
Was up there in BM last week and its an easy drive out there from Sydney.
Drove up from Melb to look at the BM and Central Coast to have a bit of a look.
Was up there in BM last week and its an easy drive out there from Sydney.
Drove up from Melb to look at the BM and Central Coast to have a bit of a look.
Blue Mountains
I think the Blue Mountains is worth looking at. It has a limited area for expansion at least on this side of the mountains because of the National Park areas. This may give it the sort of peninsular effect you sometimes get in coastal areas where the scarcity of land in the area gives growth above the norm for part of the cycle. Also it is really a commuter area of Sydney rather than being strictly a regional area. There are lots of little houses on beautiful big blocks of land in nice locations.
Using the Bunnings method of growth prediction, I noticed a big new Bunnings at Wentworth Falls (or there abouts) recently.
The fact that Residex recommends the area also helps with the self fulfilling prophecy effect!
The only problem with the area I can see is there the nearest big shopping area as far as I know is Penrith which is quite a way from much of the BM. There are some shops at Katoomba includinga K-Mart but no department store. And the only good sized supermarket is in Katoomba. I could be wrong with this but thats what I observed last time I was there.
Robyne
I think the Blue Mountains is worth looking at. It has a limited area for expansion at least on this side of the mountains because of the National Park areas. This may give it the sort of peninsular effect you sometimes get in coastal areas where the scarcity of land in the area gives growth above the norm for part of the cycle. Also it is really a commuter area of Sydney rather than being strictly a regional area. There are lots of little houses on beautiful big blocks of land in nice locations.
Using the Bunnings method of growth prediction, I noticed a big new Bunnings at Wentworth Falls (or there abouts) recently.
The fact that Residex recommends the area also helps with the self fulfilling prophecy effect!
The only problem with the area I can see is there the nearest big shopping area as far as I know is Penrith which is quite a way from much of the BM. There are some shops at Katoomba includinga K-Mart but no department store. And the only good sized supermarket is in Katoomba. I could be wrong with this but thats what I observed last time I was there.
Robyne
Interesting points.
Another bit of info that may be favourable to the BM was in the last API magazine, matusik's "clock report" as to what was on its way out and what was coming in. One of the lifestyle purchasing choices that was on set to be on the rise (according to Matusik) was cold climate retreats as opposed to the sea change thing.
There has also been significent increases in the Penrith area in the last 2 years so it could continue up the mountain?
Carolyn
Another bit of info that may be favourable to the BM was in the last API magazine, matusik's "clock report" as to what was on its way out and what was coming in. One of the lifestyle purchasing choices that was on set to be on the rise (according to Matusik) was cold climate retreats as opposed to the sea change thing.
There has also been significent increases in the Penrith area in the last 2 years so it could continue up the mountain?
Carolyn
I investigated the Blueys extensively about 10 mths ago.
Although the residex report forecast strong capital growth for Faulconbridge etc I passed.
The yields were just too low for mine.
After factoring in the cash shortfall after tax it just didn't appear to be worthwhile to me.
That market also had the feeling of sydney investors purchasing there because that's where they could afford to purchase an IP and the pressure of "I've got to get in there now".
Didn't come across to me as a market that will rise in the long term based on fundamentals.
And that is the key to my investment strategy, to purchase in areas that have reasons for growth other than the "ripple effect" of a market in a "frenzy mode".
The area has got to be a place where the average person that rents will want to live.
I could easily live in the Blueys, I used to be up there all the time canyoning etc. But I think its a place where the majority of ppls live because its all they can afford to buy or they want the "alternative" lifestyle of not living in the city. I have no problem with this, its just not the type of market I am comfortable with.
However, having said all that, I am a newbie investor (in canyoning speak I would be classed as a bumbly) and I am adopting a fairly cautious approach. I have no track record of capital gain yet except for my PPOR which I don't count because it wasn't purchased for capital gain, it was purchased because I hate paying rent.
In summary, I have a clear, definite investment strategy, the Blueys just didn't fit it. It may fit yours, good luck to you.
Although the residex report forecast strong capital growth for Faulconbridge etc I passed.
The yields were just too low for mine.
After factoring in the cash shortfall after tax it just didn't appear to be worthwhile to me.
That market also had the feeling of sydney investors purchasing there because that's where they could afford to purchase an IP and the pressure of "I've got to get in there now".
Didn't come across to me as a market that will rise in the long term based on fundamentals.
And that is the key to my investment strategy, to purchase in areas that have reasons for growth other than the "ripple effect" of a market in a "frenzy mode".
The area has got to be a place where the average person that rents will want to live.
I could easily live in the Blueys, I used to be up there all the time canyoning etc. But I think its a place where the majority of ppls live because its all they can afford to buy or they want the "alternative" lifestyle of not living in the city. I have no problem with this, its just not the type of market I am comfortable with.
However, having said all that, I am a newbie investor (in canyoning speak I would be classed as a bumbly) and I am adopting a fairly cautious approach. I have no track record of capital gain yet except for my PPOR which I don't count because it wasn't purchased for capital gain, it was purchased because I hate paying rent.
In summary, I have a clear, definite investment strategy, the Blueys just didn't fit it. It may fit yours, good luck to you.
Sanchez,
I don't mind admitting that at the moment I'm struggling a bit to locate an area.
I'm looking for $+'ve. If I need to look regional, which I'm pretty sure I do, I'm looking at large towns, with plenty of indusrty that supports it. I'm not interested in anything that is tourist driven.
I may be inclined to wait a little bit before I get really serious, perhaps in winter after another rate hike there may be more about.
I am currently struggling with the "time in the market not timing" philosophy.
Also, serviceability is going to become an issue, that's why I'm looking for $+'ve, to allow me to setup for a couple.
I'll be sure to let the forum know if I turn any areas up, after I buy them all
I don't mind admitting that at the moment I'm struggling a bit to locate an area.
I'm looking for $+'ve. If I need to look regional, which I'm pretty sure I do, I'm looking at large towns, with plenty of indusrty that supports it. I'm not interested in anything that is tourist driven.
I may be inclined to wait a little bit before I get really serious, perhaps in winter after another rate hike there may be more about.
I am currently struggling with the "time in the market not timing" philosophy.
Also, serviceability is going to become an issue, that's why I'm looking for $+'ve, to allow me to setup for a couple.
I'll be sure to let the forum know if I turn any areas up, after I buy them all
Hi guys
I live on the northern beaches of Sydney, and get to the BM quite a bit with my mountian bike.
Its a fantastic place......different climate and atmosphere than anywhere around.
Commutable to Sydney...perhaps if you were working a few days/week from home?
Yields are horrible.......in time when they increase, its def a place I'll be looking into more!
cheers
Sam
I live on the northern beaches of Sydney, and get to the BM quite a bit with my mountian bike.
Its a fantastic place......different climate and atmosphere than anywhere around.
Commutable to Sydney...perhaps if you were working a few days/week from home?
Yields are horrible.......in time when they increase, its def a place I'll be looking into more!
cheers
Sam
