Brisbane shows first clear signs of growth

According to Terry Ryder , Brisbane has now joined the ranks of the moving cities

Brisbane is beginning to join the capital city growth trend. The latest edition of the House Price Indexes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that Brisbane?s index grew 1.2% in the September Quarter, for annual growth of 4.1%.

This is the first strong indication that Brisbane is following the upward trend started by Darwin and Perth, and advanced by Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney is now the growth leader among the capital cities, with a 3.6% increase in the September Quarter and annual growth of 11.4%.

Perth ranks second, with annual growth of 8.6%, followed by Melbourne?s 6.8% and Darwin?s 6.0%. The weighted average across the eight state and territory capitals is an annual rise of 7.6%, following an average rise of 1.9% in the quarter.

The cities lagging the national trend, with annual growth of 1% or less, are Canberra, Adelaide and Hobart. Adelaide and Canberra were the only cities to record a decrease in their House Price Indexes in the September Quarter.

Given that some media is reporting the current rise in city markets as a major boom, indeed a ?bubble?, let?s put it in perspective. In 2010, the peak of the last up-cycle, all eight capital cities had double-digit annual growth, including two cities with annual growth above 20%.

The current average of 7.6% is moderate by comparison. I believe it is the beginning of a sustained growth market, with more substantial growth in 2014.



Cliff
 
According to Terry Ryder , Brisbane has now joined the ranks of the moving cities

Brisbane is beginning to join the capital city growth trend. The latest edition of the House Price Indexes from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that Brisbane?s index grew 1.2% in the September Quarter, for annual growth of 4.1%.

This is the first strong indication that Brisbane is following the upward trend started by Darwin and Perth, and advanced by Sydney and Melbourne.

Sydney is now the growth leader among the capital cities, with a 3.6% increase in the September Quarter and annual growth of 11.4%.

Perth ranks second, with annual growth of 8.6%, followed by Melbourne?s 6.8% and Darwin?s 6.0%. The weighted average across the eight state and territory capitals is an annual rise of 7.6%, following an average rise of 1.9% in the quarter.

The cities lagging the national trend, with annual growth of 1% or less, are Canberra, Adelaide and Hobart. Adelaide and Canberra were the only cities to record a decrease in their House Price Indexes in the September Quarter.

Given that some media is reporting the current rise in city markets as a major boom, indeed a ?bubble?, let?s put it in perspective. In 2010, the peak of the last up-cycle, all eight capital cities had double-digit annual growth, including two cities with annual growth above 20%.

The current average of 7.6% is moderate by comparison. I believe it is the beginning of a sustained growth market, with more substantial growth in 2014.



Cliff

Yeah, I would agree. I think Brisbane is going to grow strongly the whole of next yr [ assuming no floods,etc]. The probability of floods is actually very very small so it was quite surprising indeed that they got hit back to back in the last few years...

Still not too late to get a good deal in brisbane; wheras probably unlikely in inner sydney and melbourne as they have moved a while back.

Of all capital cities brisbane will likely have largest CG next year.

I predict the CG for next year in this order:
Highest: Brisbane [townhouse or house [if you can get it] in inner and mid [ within 10km] suburbs]
then melbourne [ townhouse/house in middle to outer suburbs],
then sydney [house in outer suburbs or CBD apartments]

then the rest....

Brisbane is the next cab off the rank and with all the building activity its trying to be a melbourne [ probably will be mini-melb in 10-15 yrs].
 
Brisbane still has room to move and yet remain at a reasonable price point. Sydney is already just ridiculous.

Brisbane is definitely picking up. The time to buy was mid 2012 when everyone was doom and gloom. You can still buy now, but the bargains are pretty much non-existent. You'll still get much better value than other capital cities, but you will be paying market price. And that's not necessarily a really terrible thing, as market price is much less than elsewhere. But for bargain hunters looking to pay below market value... you should have purchased a house in bris over a year ago.

Anyway my guess is next year brisbane will go up 6% in capital growth and by the end of this year it will be 5%.

It may go up more than that, but the only way that will be possible is if all the crazy people from Sydney start buying in Brisbane. As people from Brisbane just aren't hysterical enough at the moment to go to an auction and spend stupid amounts of money on crap properties.
 
It may go up more than that, but the only way that will be possible is if all the crazy people from Sydney start buying in Brisbane..

I'm not crazy ..... So you can't be talking about me .

I don't think so .... Are you ...? .. Hey .... I heard that ... Seriously

Cliff
 
It may go up more than that, but the only way that will be possible is if all the crazy people from Sydney start buying in Brisbane. As people from Brisbane just aren't hysterical enough at the moment to go to an auction and spend stupid amounts of money on crap properties.

It may well happen that way again like between 2003 and late 2007,,only this time the epicenter may not be as spreadout as before..imho..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TES2kgPF4Wk
 
The real drivers for this growth surge in all capital cities (including Brisbane) is the Low Interest rates this time. Not

a) Population growth
b) Economic growth
c) Activity growth (like new Infrastructure projects)

Low Interest rates and sustained Capital flow from banks is driving UP the prices.
If bank valuations start coming in Lower we will have an orderly & sustainable long term increase.
 
On new infrastructure projects, combined bus/rail tunnel between Dutton Park and Bowen Hills to get under way.

State government announces combined rail, bus river tunnel

Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...iver-tunnel-20131117-2xolc.html#ixzz2krt7ZuNd

The state government says its replacement for the Cross River Rail system is a ?once in a generation? and ?city defining? project.

The LNP has announced a $5 billion dollar combined bus/train tunnel, merging Cross River Rail with Brisbane City Council's Suburbs 2 City bus plan.

The 5.4 kilometre Brisbane Underground tunnel will run from Dutton Park in the south, past new stations at Woolloongabba, George Street and Roma Street, to Victoria Park in the north.

Transport Minister Scott Emerson told Fairfax Radio 4BC that it was an elegant solution to pressing congestion problems on the Merivale Bridge and the Cultural Centre bus precinct.

?By combining those projects with this dual tunnel ? buses on top, trains below ? we've looked for the most sensible solution, and by doing that we're going to save taxpayers many billions of dollars.?

The Labor government's Cross River Rail scheme had been estimated at $5.2 billion, with council planning to spend $2.8 billion on its bus expansion.

?The combined cost for those two projects would've been about $8 billion ... this project will be about half that at $5 billion,? he said.

?This project will now start in 2015 and we expect it to be completed in 2020, with operations started in 2021.?

The project will be funded by the state government with a contribution from council.

Premier Campbell Newman said his government was delivering on a promise to revitalise planning, infrastructure and frontline services.

?The project we are announcing today delivers the public transport services needed for the next 50 years,? he said.

?A single 15-metre-wide tunnel will be built, requiring the largest borer ever used in Australia ? almost two metres wider than the Clem7 and Airport Link tunnels.?

Lord Mayor Graham Quirk said it was a great example of state and local governments working together.

?The CBD and adjacent suburbs will need to accommodate an additional 130,000 workers in the next 20 years and we need to improve public transport capacity to accommodate this growth by improving the network,? Cr Quirk said.

?It achieves the outcomes we identified in the Suburbs 2 City study and will take up to 200 buses off CBD streets in the morning peak and reducing 100 buses per morning peak hour on the Captain Cook Bridge.?

Mr Newman said a public competition would be held early in the New Year to come up with a name for the project.


Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/que...iver-tunnel-20131117-2xolc.html#ixzz2krsnYWW5
 
starting to look at Nundah / Chermside - thoughts?
You couldn't go wrong with either suburb. Chermside is the new northside CBD while there is lots of activity (particularly in units) in Nundah. Chermside as no train line but is well served by buses. Nundah is close to rail and is becoming a trendy suburb.
 
You couldn't go wrong with either suburb. Chermside is the new northside CBD while there is lots of activity (particularly in units) in Nundah. Chermside as no train line but is well served by buses. Nundah is close to rail and is becoming a trendy suburb.

I wouldn't buy units in Nundah at the moment. Perhaps a bit of oversupply going to be seen in the near future. Northbrisbanite might be able to verify this.
 
Monalisa,

Go for a drive there, literally the whole suburb is being developed full of unit blocks both medium and high density.

My old man lives in the suburb, so I know the suburb intimately.

R
 
Best Suburbs

Any ideas if the best brisbane suburbs for growth? I was thinking Bald hills and Bracken Ridge a little out of the city however on the train line and a low buy in price.
 
I was in Brisbane through the week for the first time in 10 years. What a transformation. Toll roads everywhere and Beaudesert Road was like Parramatta Road. Could not believe it. Was good to get back the the calmness of sydney.
 
Any ideas if the best brisbane suburbs for growth? I was thinking Bald hills and Bracken Ridge a little out of the city however on the train line and a low buy in price.

Hi Jenko

These suburbs have lovely areas but also parts have been built on reclaimed swamp and look out for flood plains. So look for the hilly bits and the ridges.

Once the road works on the Gateway nearby have been completed (most likely with a new toll), the drive to the airport will be even faster. The new road crossing being built over the train line near Bunnings will also improve traffic flow.

Remember that train line is the main goods line to North Qld if considering a house close to it. I used to live very close to it and it never bothered me, but it might turn off some potential residents.
 
The real drivers for this growth surge in all capital cities (including Brisbane) is the Low Interest rates this time. Not

a) Population growth
b) Economic growth
c) Activity growth (like new Infrastructure projects)

Are you sure? I thought migration from wealthy overseas people and interstate people is high. I thought energy sector and tourism have room grow. I thought gov is spending a lot in many areas.
Eg: Logan, Toowoomba or Ipswitch
 
Wealthy overseas immigrants are not going to settle in Logan, Toowoomba or Ipswich. Do they go to Werribee and Mt Druitt?
 
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