brisbane what is going to happen now?

[keneth]

hi,

What is going to happen in the brisbane property market now that floods have gone through the city.

I have been watching it on t.v and i dont know how much of brisbane has been effected but it looks like most of it has been hit pretty hard with floods.

What do people expect will happen with property prices?

I expect that people will only sell if they are forced too, but i dont see people wanting to buy.

So i'd expect minimal activity.

Any thoughts? will priced plummet go unchanged... rents may rise in some areas which are uneffected you'd think.

 

[ianvestor]

What do people expect will happen with property prices?

They'll double every 7 to 10 years.

Same same.

 

[Rixter]

They'll double every 7 to 10 years.

Same same.

I second that motion.

 

[wylie]

Me too.....

 

[csc2]

hi,

What is going to happen in the brisbane property market now that floods have gone through the city.

I have been watching it on t.v and i dont know how much of brisbane has been effected but it looks like most of it has been hit pretty hard with floods.Most of Bris is still high and dry..dont believe all the media hype keneth, its an inconvenience for most of brisbane but really its a small % of people that are directly affected from flooding..media has had a field day up and down the coast with this story..granted places like Lockyer Valley are disasterous but generally speaking its par for the course in most other areas

What do people expect will happen with property prices?
Floods wont help in my opinion, still more trending down for some time, flooding or not is my read on the market, others will disagree but I am right! )

I expect that people will only sell if they are forced too, but i dont see people wanting to buy.

People for a while will now become more savey buying that is all and the seller will often need to meet the market rather than the market meet his/her price......long term, business as normal, the downturn and flooding is but a glitch on the horizon over say 25 years

So i'd expect minimal activity....

Any thoughts? will priced plummet go unchanged... rents may rise in some areas which are uneffected you'd think.

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[buzzlightyear]

Was hearing the initial commentary on the impact on economic activity on Qld. The comments were that initially it would impact the economy with the close of mines and general economic activity being halted due to the floods, however they believed the recovery especially for business/mining would be quick and that there would be catchup being played later in the quarter/year. There was some reference to NSW mines being the short term beneficiary of this, so the net impact of the economy may be relatively small.

The known unknown is the amount of money and the effects of it being spent that will be needed to be spent on rebuilding social and private infrastructure, housing etc.

The RBA always cautioned on the limits of growth and effects of the mining stimulus on an already close to capacity economy. Inflation & increasing rates anyone?

 

[csc2]

Was hearing the initial commentary on the impact on economic activity on Qld. The comments were that initially it would impact the economy with the close of mines and general economic activity being halted due to the floods, however they believed the recovery especially for business/mining would be quick and that there would be catchup being played later in the quarter/year. There was some reference to NSW mines being the short term beneficiary of this, so the net impact of the economy may be relatively small.

The known unknown is the amount of money and the effects of it being spent that will be needed to be spent on rebuilding social and private infrastructure, housing etc.

The RBA always cautioned on the limits of growth and effects of the mining stimulus on an already close to capacity economy. Inflation & increasing rates anyone?

some mine will be out of action for several months, others are already back and ruinning up this way...

after this weekend it will be gearing up to back to normal.....

big issue though is one cyclone formed way out east and another developing in the coral sea...

i think more rain from the coral sea low will be a big issue for central qld next two/three weeks....

rain in any catchment we dont need up this way....

wait and see i guess exactly what happens...

 

[Amadio]

We are being very affected even though we were not flooded.

My partner is an independent contractor who had scheduled work beginning this week.

All the businesses that he had work with with are now under water.

This is pretty bad for our income. Some of the premises may have to close up altogether so it's not a matter of just waiting to reschedule.

Not sure what to do yet. We may have to move out of the state since the kind of work he does here he can do in any other state.

For those nitwits saying that these floods are just a media beat up - you have no clue. No TV reports can come close to showing the real devastation that has been wreaked upon this state.

 

[sash]

CSC2.....a media beatup eh.....you have got be kidding??

I thought I have hard some silly things....but this takes the cake..

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[csc2]

CSC2.....a media beatup eh.....you have got be kidding??

I thought I have hard some silly things....but this takes the cake..

Im being fair dinkum with regards to inundation in Rockhampton, Brisbane..............ie: those that dont have water in their actually homes...

If you cant see that then the only silly one is you Sash.

Reasoning: Every time theres a flood it the exact same suburbs in each city or town..........I only said on S/S a few mths ago about Brisbane flooding again, wqas a matter of time.

If you choose to live on a flood plain then so be it.

For sure the ramifacations across the board can be wide and varied but flooding is hardly new and reaistically it may not be the last time this year.

Not being able to get to ones work is hardly something to be over concerned about when your house is out of flood..

Those that work at the mines are generally on good bucks, if they havnt been saving then who is to blame for not puitting money away....

People cant have their cake and eat it and the govt cant be expected to bail everyone out every time it rains.....

I have all the sympathy in the world for genuine suffers of the flood, those that lost their homes and loved ones but for people to stand up and cry poor because they cant get to work...PFFFTT! ....get a life please...that is nothing.

 

[Beebop]

To double in 7 years means they go up ~10% a year, plus a 5% yeild. That is a huge return.

 

[ianvestor]

To double in 7 years means they go up ~10% a year, plus a 5% yeild. That is a huge return.

Why would it be +5%? You mean if you had no loan?

To double in 10 years would be 7% a year.

 

[Angel]

Wouldn't all the unaffected homes increase in value? I must admit that back in 1974 I was studying History and Geography, not realestate - we had a boat yes, and I learned all about disaster preparedness. Why did you think i had a low opinion of purchasing IPs in Redbank Plains?

Unfortunately a lot of our commercial and industrial areas were flooded, so the economy is up a creek at the moment (pun intended). But only a tiny proportion of homes have been inundated. As others have said, the same old places. If people insist on paying extra dollars to live on the river front and other trendy locations, what were they expecting? It is the businesses that are worst affected (in my opinion)

On another point, Ipswich is reported as having 30% of homes flooded. That is why the median price of property in Ipswich is "cheap". It regularly floods there.

 

[Amadio]

for people to stand up and cry poor because they cant get to work...PFFFTT! ....get a life please...that is nothing.

The question the OP asked was how was this going to affect the Brisbane property market.

I pointed out that some people like us may have to leave because the work is under water.

It will affect the property market if a segment of the population has to find work in other states.

You have consistantly made insensitive comments on the QLD flooding since it began and it's no wonder that your running commentary gets no respect. I suspect that you and bluestorm are one and the same person.

 

[scratcher]

The problem for people that live in affected suburbs is that the value of the land will go down dramatically. This will lead to some people holding negative equity in the property and therefore being unable to borrow money in order to pay for repairs. This is especially true for those who either did not have insurance or had policies that do not cover flooding. These people will be unable to sell and find it difficult to borrow money for repairs.

 

[bluestorm]

You have consistantly made insensitive comments on the QLD flooding since it began and it's no wonder that your running commentary gets no respect. I suspect that you and bluestorm are one and the same person.

No, different people.

But I have to agree with csc2. For the past 25yrs that I can remember, we always hear the same towns and cities in QLD, NSW, over and over again everytime. You can even predict which NSW towns will be flooded when the QLD water heads south. In 25yrs, we have not learnt a thing. In 25yrs time, the same places will be mentioned over and over again still.

In terms of Brisbane, I would not be surprised if some serious questions are asked about the floods, and the government starts buying up some flood prone land around the river, and changes some zoning. With some uncertainty about what may eventuate, the prices around the river may cool.

 

[wylie]

With some uncertainty about what may eventuate, the prices around the river may cool.

I don't think river frontage prices will cool. I know it is a generalisation (and I don't like generalisations generally ) but if you can afford a house on the river, you can either afford flood insurance or can afford to re-gyprock and run new power through if that is necessary.

I know it is different, but when people say "why do they stay there" I think about those people who live in earthquake areas. They stay there because it is a desirable place to live, hard to get, has a certain cachet and living on the river has been flood free for 36 years.

Those in areas that flood more regularly probably stay there because it is cheaper, their families are nearby and being eternal optimists, they possibly think it won't happen again. I would think like that, but then I am a "glass half full" type of personality.

 

[bluestorm]

And another thing Amadio. While you may find insensitive mine or csc2's comments about the floods (and people building in flood zones), what I find insensitive is all the TV reporters going through peoples houses, and even talking to people who lost loved ones the previous day, all for the news entertainment of people like you and the 24hr news coverage. But of course, you all just take in all the coverage, and don't see the insensitive hypocrisy in it.

What is going to happen in the brisbane property market now that floods have gone through the city.

Most of Brisbane is not affected by the flood waters keneth. The effect on Brisbane will come from an economic hit in QLD from the floods. Perhaps even lenders more reluctant to loan for more flood prone areas? The Brisbane market will cool more than it would have anyway.
And was csc2 also said.

 

[Bargain Hunter]

Here's my uneductaed predictions.

Unfortunately people will be out of work, some will have the skills, ability and determination to find work elsewhere or even within the rebuilding process. Others will not be so fortunate and will never recover, relying on assistance until the end of their days, and some the tragedy will be the best thing that ever happened to them. Even if they don't recognise it now they will find their calling and shine. That is the human experience, some people find faith in tragedy, other end up defeated and the majority stoically get on with their lives.

In property rents will rise in the areas unaffected by the floods. This will be an immediate impact and will be reported on ACA as 'heartless landlords cash in on flood tragedy'. Rents will fall in these areas as the flood zone properties become habitable once more.

Most people will return to their homes to sort through the wreckage and rebuild their lives, others will find this too difficult and move on. Those who sell in the short term will lose out however due to remediation, rebuilding and beautification of the areas values will rise beyond the pre-flood values within three years.

Some businesses will be lost, especially small businesses however the more profitable ones will be open as soon as possible, this will be the same with the mines. The more profitable they were the quicker they will be re-opened, if a mine is at end of life then they will remain closed, it would have happened anyway.

Life will go back to normal, other tragedies will occur elsewhere and the floods will be well forgotten within ten years apart from a 10 year memorial special. This is until it all happens again catching people by surprise and having a nation ask once more, 'how can this happen'.

Regards

Andrew

 

[mattnz]

Property prices continuing to double every 7 to 10 years is an unrealistic expectation.

The only way that this could happen is if we enter a high inflation environment, because houses in Australia are already overpriced and people cannot afford to take on more debt unless their wages increase significantly.

Property values at 8 times income are at the extremes of (un)affordability and not sustainable, let alone significant increases from this level.

Current economic theory and the goal of every reserve bank around the world is to keep inflation low and stable, around 2-3% is the typical target. In this environment, prices cannot double in the next 7 to 10 years.