brisbane what is going to happen now?

Our IP in Bracken Ridge ,which is 20km north of Brisbane,there was no flood ,and I am expecting this house rise 40% in 3 years .
I want to sell it after 3 years,and move to Europe

Hi Snowwhite

What makes you think your house will increase by 40% in three years? I kinda agree with you but have no particular reason other than a gut feeling.
 
You are the one dreaming,I have asked tenants and normal people who have suffered flooding if they want to rent or buy in flood affected areas and they all say no way.Not one has said they are happy living there and if they can get out they will.I know of one person breaking his lease and I am sure there are a lot of them.
That tells me some bargains on the way if you have the money.
Whaaaa..??? What do you base this on?

I actually take offense to you using Grantham and the Lockyer Valley as a stand alone,it is obvious you do not know the area,
I have lived in the Lockyer valley for 6 years now and I personally do not know one person who has had their house flooded.
The media has hyped it up a little if not a lot and if you are not on the creek or you have been very unlucky,most people came out unscathed.
This paragraph just does not make sense to me at all. I've lived in Gatton and Lowood and have worked in the area before. You may or may not be aware that media hype has a large bearing on sentiment. Do you think I needed a reminder about how beautiful this part of Australia is?


It is actually a beautiful and safe place to live,Grantham on the other hand I have not seen personally since the flooding,but that was a freak of nature that caused that.
This paragraph contradicts your last one.


You say rich people have rich insurance,I have a house near the water,
I don't consider myself rich except for having a wonderful family.It would break my heart to have my house under water,I feel for the other people who have suffered it,rich or poor it is a terrible thing to go through.
If you don't consider yourself rich, I will assume you don't have Suncorp insurance. As for feeling for those affected, of course I do, I was merely making a note that those people living in mansions on the river will, to a large extent, use this as an excuse to update their furniture and be in no financial difficulty at all. I am not referring to "financials", not emotional hardship.

Bottom line is the houses that flooded will not be sought after as much except as a bargain buy for the future.
I'll believe this when I see it.
 
Whaaaa..??? What do you base this on?


This paragraph just does not make sense to me at all. I've lived in Gatton and Lowood and have worked in the area before. You may or may not be aware that media hype has a large bearing on sentiment. Do you think I needed a reminder about how beautiful this part of Australia is?



This paragraph contradicts your last one.


If you don't consider yourself rich, I will assume you don't have Suncorp insurance. As for feeling for those affected, of course I do, I was merely making a note that those people living in mansions on the river will, to a large extent, use this as an excuse to update their furniture and be in no financial difficulty at all. I am not referring to "financials", not emotional hardship.

I'll believe this when I see it.

Andras,
I just read your blog,it doesn't sound like you are going to good,having to sell your properties to get by.
Hope the bank doesn't take you,:rolleyes:
You might have lived in Gatton and Lowood,but you have never owned a house there,maybe you rented one off me.probably kicked you out anyway.

Maybe you should have bought a property in the valley,
Anyway when you make some kind of profit while investing in houses you can knock my typing and lecture me in the meantime stay out of my face,********
 
Well I know nothing about floods other than I've been in 74 and 11 and and a few others but both those are different in thier own way but neither should be not to be dismissed in the damage they caused.

What I will say is over the last couple of weeks I have been a (mud lark) better known as a cleaner of houses for people and I have been working both Indooroopilly and Fig Tree Pocket areas and while we (my crew) have cleaned many places, I was somewhat surprised at the number that indicated they would demolish and rebuild 3 in all with many saying this is the price we pay to be here :eek:. More money than me (not that thats hard)

For me I have NO desire to be involved in a flood damaged place /area don't give a shi^ where it is, to me IT'S not a bargain its just a time bomb waiting to happen.

Of course there is exeptions and by this I mean if you can raise your current place above the flood height maybe fine insurance well now thas another issue.

For me not interested in flood areas

Brian
 
Property prices continuing to double every 7 to 10 years is an unrealistic expectation.

The only way that this could happen is if we enter a high inflation environment, because houses in Australia are already overpriced and people cannot afford to take on more debt unless their wages increase significantly.

Property values at 8 times income are at the extremes of (un)affordability and not sustainable, let alone significant increases from this level.

Current economic theory and the goal of every reserve bank around the world is to keep inflation low and stable, around 2-3% is the typical target. In this environment, prices cannot double in the next 7 to 10 years.

China 1000 percented in 10 years. Thats 100% per year. ...... Maybe more in the future. I bought a property in China 5 years ago in Chongqing. it increased 400% in 4 years. Very crazy yes. In Hainan, 2002, I looked at a beautiful apartment for 70 square meters, back then at $400 a square meter and now, it's at $4000 a square meter. The rich and poor gap is getting bigger in China, the market is only for the rich and nothing for the poor. So just like double bay, south yarra and many up market suburbs for the rich, the prices will only go up in China. Still lots of room.
 
40 years ago house prices were at the historical norm of 3 times average income, so house prices have clearly outpaced wages by far too much to be 8 times average income and in time must revert to the historical norm for them to be affordable again.

In China, cities like shanghai are 200 years the average income. I think that's why Asian cashed up investors think 8years is not too bad. True?
 
For me I have NO desire to be involved in a flood damaged place /area don't give a shi^ where it is, to me IT'S not a bargain its just a time bomb waiting to happen.
Brian,if you where to go for a drive around Rocklea and look at all the removals that went in over the past 18 months,and built too the BCC
Flood Guidelines most of those properties still went above the top floor window levels,i was helping a very old single man for half a day yesterday too get his plumbing hws guttering back in line yesterday afternoon so he can live in his first ever house,"for free",he is still in shock as too what happened to him and our network will keep an eye on him,that's the only problem with water you can Dam it pipe it anywhere but what people Governments don't understand is unlike everything else"Water always finds it's own level,no inbetweens"
 
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