These wouldn't affect the compounding effect I have highlighted. Even if it did, lets adjust by a factor of 1000 even, how many houses in London are selling today for 1,237,940,040,000,000,000,000,000 pounds??
brisbane what is going to happen now?
- Thread starter keneth
- Start date
These wouldn't affect the compounding effect I have highlighted. Even if it did, lets adjust by a factor of 1000 even, how many houses in London are selling today for 1,237,940,040,000,000,000,000,000 pounds??
IIRC, most were flat. But bear in mind this was at a time of significant inflation, so they went backwards in real terms.
The reality was that a vast amount of money was sucked out of the local economy, which was hardly a catalyst for a booming local property market.
Wasn't this the approx time when Jan Somers started buying property in Brisbane?
I know all flood areas were discounted quite drastically for a period of time.
My family has several properties in flood areas in those days so even being young I had a keen ear.
As for non flood areas I think you have to assume that it affected some areas as well.
Reasoning: Investors from interstate will be sus on the whole of Brisbane for some time because of the way the media portrays that Brisbane was underwater when in fact it was just a small part of Brisbanes housing market.
The flow on effect of discounting may take some time to show up but that it will i promise.
How much is hard to guage, all pure guess work.
the property market is so much different these days to back then...everty man and his dog has property these days and many have more than one home.....
More to lose also and debt ridden to boot....some people are going to really hurt from this flood, money wise....
The flood couldnt have come a t a worse time really, the Bris market was flat to down in most areas..this will only keep the trend declining for some time....
Still, light at the end of the tunnel is that in time people will again become slack when doing due dilligence and forget about this flood when buying....
The old saying: "Buyer beware; holds true, even today...
I heard there was a lot of rain.
I'm skeptical that the floods will cause any significant price swings one way or the other. Even if there are big prices changes, it would be difficult to attribute them solely to the weather.
A cyclone came down the coast..yes there was a heap of rain which hit bris and the catchment areas..
really similar to last weeks flood but back then there was no dam at wivenhoe...
tell you without that dam this latest flood would have been way more dramatic in brisbane i feel.
For reference:
this is 1974
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1973&eyear=1975&loc=0
do a search on all cyclones...its unreal...
this is 1974
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/cyclones.cgi?region=aus&syear=1973&eyear=1975&loc=0
do a search on all cyclones...its unreal...
I totally agree,with out wivenhoe things would have been so much worse
Interesting read on Crikey...
Floods, prices and mortality
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/01/17/floods-prices-and-mortality/
Excerpts:
Floods, prices and mortality
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/01/17/floods-prices-and-mortality/
Excerpts:
Median house prices in the 70s and 80s (from this study: http://www.econ.mq.edu.au/research/2004/Abelson_9_04.pdf)
From these figures, no evidence prices were affected one way or the other by the 1974 floods.
Table 1 Annual median house prices ($) - capital cities
Year....Sydney...Melbrne..Brisbane..Adelaide...Perth....Hobart...Darwin..Canberra
1970...18,700....12,800...............................17,500
1971...21,200....13,400..................11,900...17,750...11,875..............18,000
1972...23,700....15,000..................13,225...17,500...12,600..............20,350
1973...27,400....19,800....17,500....16,250...18,850...15,200..............26,850
1974...31,800....25,500....21,500....22,200...18,850...20,500..............32,000
1975...34,300....28,700....23,700....26,150...24,500...25,850..............33,600
1976...36,800....32,900....26,275....29,800...33,000...31,575..............35,100
1977...39,200....37,000....28,600....32,600...36,400...34,500..............36,700
1978...43,200....37,600....29,975....33,100...38,575...34,000..............37,300
1979...50,700....38,000....31,450....33,750...38,600...34,750..............39,000
1980...68,850....39,500....35,475....36,000...40,350...36,250..............44,675
1981...78,900....44,000....45,325....39,100...43,825...37,100..............57,750
1982...79,425....46,750....55,125....42,850...48,225...40.325..............59,025
1983...81,425....52,500....55,525....47,950...49,000...42,500..............68,150
1984...85,900....65,000....58,950....61,250...48,175...44,750..............84,250
1985...88,350....75,200....61,550....72,200...52,050...55,500..............90,625
1986...98,325....82,000....63,000....73,500...58,000...56,725..87,500..91,175
1987..120,025...89,500....63,500....74,500...61,225...63,450..81,075..90,125
1988..141,000..109,000...71,000....80,400...78,000...67,950..86,000..101,250
1989..170,850..132,000...96,000....90,400..102,500..77,325..90,750..115,000
etc...
From these figures, no evidence prices were affected one way or the other by the 1974 floods.
Table 1 Annual median house prices ($) - capital cities
Year....Sydney...Melbrne..Brisbane..Adelaide...Perth....Hobart...Darwin..Canberra
1970...18,700....12,800...............................17,500
1971...21,200....13,400..................11,900...17,750...11,875..............18,000
1972...23,700....15,000..................13,225...17,500...12,600..............20,350
1973...27,400....19,800....17,500....16,250...18,850...15,200..............26,850
1974...31,800....25,500....21,500....22,200...18,850...20,500..............32,000
1975...34,300....28,700....23,700....26,150...24,500...25,850..............33,600
1976...36,800....32,900....26,275....29,800...33,000...31,575..............35,100
1977...39,200....37,000....28,600....32,600...36,400...34,500..............36,700
1978...43,200....37,600....29,975....33,100...38,575...34,000..............37,300
1979...50,700....38,000....31,450....33,750...38,600...34,750..............39,000
1980...68,850....39,500....35,475....36,000...40,350...36,250..............44,675
1981...78,900....44,000....45,325....39,100...43,825...37,100..............57,750
1982...79,425....46,750....55,125....42,850...48,225...40.325..............59,025
1983...81,425....52,500....55,525....47,950...49,000...42,500..............68,150
1984...85,900....65,000....58,950....61,250...48,175...44,750..............84,250
1985...88,350....75,200....61,550....72,200...52,050...55,500..............90,625
1986...98,325....82,000....63,000....73,500...58,000...56,725..87,500..91,175
1987..120,025...89,500....63,500....74,500...61,225...63,450..81,075..90,125
1988..141,000..109,000...71,000....80,400...78,000...67,950..86,000..101,250
1989..170,850..132,000...96,000....90,400..102,500..77,325..90,750..115,000
etc...
with respect, anyone that quotes median house prices anywhere including a forum really has zero idea of any housing market trend........
median means absolutely nothing ol mate
Does that include Propertunity, with all his Median price graphs
I'll agree with your there csc2, zero idea of any housing market trend.
My views on median prices and the need to be careful using them is well known and I posted here, over 2 years ago, my views on the subject: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=495466&postcount=3Does that include Propertunity, with all his Median price graphs
I suspect BS, that you don't like my graphs because they tend to disprove half of what you try yo get away with saying on here
Mmmmm, be very quiet, 2 x geniuses at work
The ABS, RP Data et al are wasting their time studying median price moves according to you 2
Median prices have their place but need careful handling.
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Mmmmm, be very quiet, 2 x geniuses at work
Indeed. And a recent UK study proves it.
"Researchers from the London School of Economics (LSE) said that physically-attractive people have above-average IQs, with good-looking men around 13.6 points above the norm"
I think the different now between 1974 and today is that companies are more profit driven. Insurers will be for ruthless. Some of the flood prone areas will be uninsurable, even more so now. This will definately hit prices in some areas in the near term, until memories fade.
People may discount properties on the Brisbane river as well, meaning there could be bargins in the next 2 yrs.
In the near term, I see QLD even weaker than it would have been regardless.
Mmmmm, be very quiet, 2 x geniuses at work
Oh c/mon Prop...your hurting my ego here!
Im no expert by any stretch but I do know median house prices are no real test for a suburbs accurate growth, short or long term.
You can quote all the RP Data stuff you like matey.
Agents love spruking median house prices when it works in their favour for marketing but you wont see them promoting a suburb when medians show a sliding scale....
This is 2011, please dont hurt my feelings..im doing my best to be nice Prop (u muppet). Hey, what? opps, who said that????
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Got an interesting update this AM from a national valuer on their thoughts on the flood impact.
To summarise:
From my own business' perspective I can say that the latter point if both real and on-foot.
Good news for investors is upward pressure on rents in the short term for those with dry accomodations.
To summarise:
- Post 74 floods a significant stigma was associated with affected suburbs
- Time plus Wivenhoe and said stigma is diminished/forgotten.
- With recent events reminding all of the inherent dangers of cites, high rainfall and floodplains:
[*]suburbs/properties that experienced minor flooding - expect drop of 5-10%
[*]sites with more severe inundation orders of magnitude higher with the >$1M market of 20-25%.
[*]You should once again see a premium for "high and dry" sites.
[*]The longer-term response of financiers and insurers in regards their risk assessment of those suburbs should be considered to potentially add further downward pressure.
From my own business' perspective I can say that the latter point if both real and on-foot.
Good news for investors is upward pressure on rents in the short term for those with dry accomodations.
That's because the prices would be falling in that instance
However, the selling REAs would probably be advertising "improved affordability" and "represents better value" but that's only what you'd expect.
