brisbane what is going to happen now?

[Stavros]

1974 Bris house prices

Thought you would find this of interest
The Brisbane house prices after the 1974 floods.
http://www.abcdiamond.com/australia/brisbane-house-prices-after-the-2011-flood/

 

[HandyAndy888]

What is going to happen now?

Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing will change, house prices will increase 2-3% in 2011 and then rebound to continue the 7%pa. on average.

If people believe house prices will fall in flood affected areas, you are dreaming. If anything, they will be "beautified" and increase more in value. Remember this people: Rich folks have rich insurance. And if not, they have buckets of money.

As for Grantham and Lockyer Valley, perhaps we will see some effect.

 

[alexlee]

Rich folks have rich insurance. And if not, they have buckets of money.

Everyone who owns a nice home is rich, then?

 

[Gremlin]

If people believe house prices will fall in flood affected areas, you are dreaming. If anything, they will be "beautified" and increase more in value. Remember this people: Rich folks have rich insurance. And if not, they have buckets of money.

I, for one, certainly don't consider Goodna, Rocklea, Booval, Bundamba and the like, the playground of South East Queensland's rich. There are a lot of people from all different social standings been severely impacted by this.

 

[Token Funder]

What is going to happen now?

Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing will change, house prices will increase 2-3% in 2011 and then rebound to continue the 7%pa. on average.

If people believe house prices will fall in flood affected areas, you are dreaming. If anything, they will be "beautified" and increase more in value. *snip*
.

Of course, why didn't I see that?!

If people are attracted to water aspects, they will be even more attracted to properties shown to have a high chance of aforementioned water aspects actually entering the home.

 

[csc2]

its funny that people continue to refer to the 1974 flood when un fact in 74 that flood was nowhere near the biggest.

the biggest wa double the 74 height back in the last 1890's so in my opinion do your due dilligence and buy above the 1890 mark only if you are worried about flooding in brisvegas...

theres money to be made however by sitting and waiting over the next 12 mths in brissie if you are patient to buy and go long on your investment.

i am sure there will be some unreal bargains out there in homes and units....thing is to sit and hold...thats the hard one for me but ill be looking big time to set my kids up for a future investment long after im gone.

location, location, location is the key, flood or not!

and im am fairly certain that the state and fed govt will be looking at long term solutions for brissie...after all its is costing them dearly and as more people move to brissie the population base in all areas will increase dramatically over the next 50 yrs......

it may cost a bundle but they will try and do something to alleviate the issue long term im fairly certain...

 

[Angel]

Will you please get this small fact: Booval, Redbank, Goodna etc are in Ipswich, not Brisbane. Their values will not show up in the Brisbane figures.

 

[HandyAndy888]

Everyone who owns a nice home is rich, then?

In general, yes.

 

[HandyAndy888]

Will you please get this small fact: Booval, Redbank, Goodna etc are in Ipswich, not Brisbane. Their values will not show up in the Brisbane figures.

While this may be technically correct, Goodna is definitely still Brisbane in terms of location. IMO.

 

[csc2]

What is going to happen now?

Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing will change, house prices will increase 2-3% in 2011 and then rebound to continue the 7%pa. on average.

If people believe house prices will fall in flood affected areas, you are dreaming. If anything, they will be "beautified" and increase more in value. Remember this people: Rich folks have rich insurance. And if not, they have buckets of money.

As for Grantham and Lockyer Valley, perhaps we will see some effect.

ill gladly take a bet from you about that.

many insurance companies wont touch flood areas for a start.

rich or not people hurt from these types of events.

most rich people owe plenty to the banks so just because someone looks rich and lives on the waterfront doesnt mean they own the property...

wager??? ill take bets in multiples of a thousand $ that by the end of this year you will see noticable drops in pretty much all flood areas of brisvenice

 

[csc2]

there was huge discounting happening after '74 in brisbane...took some years to recover to a point where and agent wasnt so worried about flooding and buyers started to forget also.

go ask any long term agent, they will tell you exactly what i am saying.

people underestimate what this flood will do to the r/e in brisbane in many areas.....it has a flow on effect

keep in mind the 74 flood wasnt the biggest by a long way....there was one in the last 1890's i think that was massive.

times have changed so much in brisbane, the number of people living in flood prone areas has increased dramatically since '74, therein lays the problem.

you can blame successive BCC's for allowing it to happen...

the dam wont stop a really big flood from happening and really sorting out Brisbane one day...

buy above the 1890's flood height to be sure you have a good chance of never going under....plus at least you will be able to obtain quality flood insurance

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[Pa1nter]

What is going to happen now?

Absolutely nothing. Absolutely nothing will change, house prices will increase 2-3% in 2011 and then rebound to continue the 7%pa. on average.

If people believe house prices will fall in flood affected areas, you are dreaming. If anything, they will be "beautified" and increase more in value. Remember this people: Rich folks have rich insurance. And if not, they have buckets of money.

As for Grantham and Lockyer Valley, perhaps we will see some effect.

You are the one dreaming,I have asked tenants and normal people who have suffered flooding if they want to rent or buy in flood affected areas and they all say no way.Not one has said they are happy living there and if they can get out they will.I know of one person breaking his lease and I am sure there are a lot of them.
That tells me some bargains on the way if you have the money.

I actually take offense to you using Grantham and the Lockyer Valley as a stand alone,it is obvious you do not know the area,
I have lived in the Lockyer valley for 6 years now and I personally do not know one person who has had their house flooded.
The media has hyped it up a little if not a lot and if you are not on the creek or you have been very unlucky,most people came out unscathed.

It is actually a beautiful and safe place to live,Grantham on the other hand I have not seen personally since the flooding,but that was a freak of nature that caused that.

You say rich people have rich insurance,I have a house near the water,
I don't consider myself rich except for having a wonderful family.It would break my heart to have my house under water,I feel for the other people who have suffered it,rich or poor it is a terrible thing to go through.

Bottom line is the houses that flooded will not be sought after as much except as a bargain buy for the future.

 

[kathryn d]

You are the one dreaming,I have asked tenants and normal people who have suffered flooding if they want to rent or buy in flood affected areas and they all say no way.

lol...that is funny

 

[agent007]

http://www.propellvaluers.com/images/reports/qldfloods.pdf

 

[Melbournian]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/bank-eyes-waiving-of-mortgages-20110121-1a02b.html

Bank eyes waiving of mortgages

 

[snowwhite]

Our IP in Bracken Ridge ,which is 20km north of Brisbane,there was no flood ,and I am expecting this house rise 40% in 3 years .
I want to sell it after 3 years,and move to Europe

 

[charlieandkath]

To double in 7 years means they go up ~10% a year, plus a 5% yeild. That is a huge return.

A fare few years ago a bloke told me that if houses were to double every ten years then you need 7.8% compound. This is the figure i was telling people but silly me did not do his research did I.

Therefore I decided to work it out and it comes in at a tad under 7.18%. So there you go everyone. From my research this is the number to use but you better do your own checks. Maybe someone else could confirm this to everyone.

 

[Andrew_A]

A fare few years ago a bloke told me that if houses were to double every ten years then you need 7.8% compound. This is the figure i was telling people but silly me did not do his research did I.

Therefore I decided to work it out and it comes in at a tad under 7.18%. So there you go everyone. From my research this is the number to use but you better do your own checks. Maybe someone else could confirm this to everyone.

Have a look at the rule of 72 for a quick way of calculating this.

 

[Sunfish]

I see one or two new dams coming on line fairly soon.

You must have richer friends than I. LOL Last time I looked there was no money. All levels of gov are GOUGING taxes just to meet their socialist commitments.

There will be no new dams. No votes in it.

 

[Tehanu]

This article talks about the difficulties about 600 off-the-plan apartments in Brisbane.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-...-over-home-sales/story-fn7iwx3v-1225990594325

The best part of the article however is this:

Mr Hulcombe said there would be more differentiation in values for flood-affected and "safe" properties. "The biggest risk (to values) would be if insurers were to withdraw flood insurance."

He said other risks to property values would be if banks changed loan-to-value ratios (the amount they will lend compared with the purchase price) for flooded areas, and a review of flood maps.

There has been substantial discussion here about buyer sentiment, but I think a potentially more important factor about what happens here after with the Brisbane property market is bank and insurer sentiment. Even if buyers become eager to buy soon (highly likely - people have short memories), banks may not be so eager to lend money and insurers may not be so eager to cover the property. I would say the current attempt to make insurers look evil over flood insurance may help make insurers wary of covering the houses in flood prone areas in Brisbane at all (it's more bother than it's worth - if you don't offer *any* coverage no-one can complain that you misled them). While you can usually find fault with insurers I think they are being beaten up unfairly over this.

I think potential property buyers may want to keep an eye on bank and insurer sentiment as well as buyer sentiment. Of course this applies to flooded areas only.

Of course if the banks and insurers go on strike, the Government might step in. However that would be an even bigger kerfuffle than the current flood levy, because at least that is (supposedly) temporary.