Business Spectator - Analysis of Australian Property Market - Part 3

Thanks chilliaa,

You are absolutely right! People like the gloomers who posted above, seem to be so devoid of their own ideas, and so persistently negative about the future, that they immediately jump on anyone with a positive outlook and launch into character assassination mode. Or else they pedantically nitpick posts from years ago, taking small snippets of conversation out of context so they can say 'Ha - you were wrong about that!' :rolleyes:

I don't claim to be right all the time. Like just about every economist and analyst out there, I state what I think might happen. Sometimes I get it right and sometimes I get it wrong. I've yet to meet anyone who can predict the future with 100% accuracy as the gloomers seem to expect me to do!

I have yet to see the gloomers actually address any of the points that I made in my Business Spectator articles. Instead they have resorted to mud flinging, nitpicking and silly comments like 'I could easily debunk everything Shadow says, but I can't be bothered'. This has been the response from the gloomers both here and on the other forum where Boz and Token Funder/Yossarian usually hang out.

Oh well, I guess they need something to keep themselves amused, and if nitpicking my old posts and preaching Doom and Gloom is what keeps them happy, then who am I to stand in their way. :D

Cheers,

Shadow.

Actually, if you check my posting rate, it's clear (at least in the context of property investing-related site), I spend most of my time here.

If you want to make predictions, postulate arguments and make lists, you should expect those predictions, arguments and lists to be challenged by those who think they are incorrect, particularly in the context of this forum where plenty of newbie investors pass by and can be influenced by overly optimistic views.

While overly negative views may discourage them and they might miss an opportunity, it is the overly optimistic newbies that people in the business I am in take properties away from.

You have made quite the effort (and accepted the praise) for your endeavours but, frankly, appear to lack the maturity or intellectual honesty to consider the implications of, or understand why, they lack utility.

It is for this reason that your "analytics" don't get better.

You don't learn appear to learn from your misses or understand the difference in assessing a situation on the basis of the balance of probabilities as distinct from what you would prefer to be true.

The only accurate prediction that I can find (happy to be corrected if there are others) was the early downward movement on rates and I think it would be instructive for you to note that it was a variable that supported your preferred outcome.

Ultimately, if you position yourself as an informed analyst of property economics you should man-up and cop the critiques when you get it wrong.

And, as I've said before, there is little value in nitpicking your various treatises because they haven't shown themselves to be useful. It's same reason I gave up debating creationists years ago.
 
Actually, if you check my posting rate, it's clear (at least in the context of property investing-related site), I spend most of my time here.

If you want to make predictions, postulate arguments and make lists, you should expect those predictions, arguments and lists to be challenged by those who think they are incorrect, particularly in the context of this forum where plenty of newbie investors pass by and can be influenced by overly optimistic views.

While overly negative views may discourage them and they might miss an opportunity, it is the overly optimistic newbies that people in the business I am in take properties away from.

You have made quite the effort (and accepted the praise) for your endeavours but, frankly, appear to lack the maturity or intellectual honesty to consider the implications of, or understand why, they lack utility.

It is for this reason that your "analytics" don't get better.

You don't learn appear to learn from your misses or understand the difference in assessing a situation on the basis of the balance of probabilities as distinct from what you would prefer to be true.

The only accurate prediction that I can find (happy to be corrected if there are others) was the early downward movement on rates and I think it would be instructive for you to note that it was a variable that supported your preferred outcome.

Ultimately, if you position yourself as an informed analyst of property economics you should man-up and cop the critiques when you get it wrong.

And, as I've said before, there is little value in nitpicking your various treatises because they haven't shown themselves to be useful. It's same reason I gave up debating creationists years ago.

Hi TF,

Happy to engage in adult debate with people, and happy to take constructive criticism on board.

But what I was actually referring to above were the gloomers who engage in pedantic nitpicking, or dig up old posts from years ago, quoting small sections out of context to prove I was 'wrong'. Or people who make comments like 'I could disprove everything Shadow says but I can't be bothered'. Or the people who dedicate multiple threads on other forums to the topic of 'debunking Shadow'. There are at least five or six very active threads over in the main page of that forum dedicated to attacking and abusing me. Some of the comments have been really over the top. You know what threads I'm talking about, since you participated in some of them with your Yossarian account!

I really don't see why you gloomers are so obsessed with me that you have to follow me round digging up old posts, starting multiple threads about me on your gloomer forum, jumping on everything I say to try and find the slightest inconsistency to attack me with. If I'm not even allowed to post on your forum, then why do you waste so much time and energy talking about me there?

I mean, HG is now over there dedicating his entire weekends to debunking my articles. Go spend some time with your family HG! It all seems rather obsessive. Chill out guys - I'm just some anonymous bloke making predictions on the internet! :rolleyes:

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
Hi TF,
Chill out guys - I'm just some anonymous bloke making predictions on the internet! :rolleyes:

Cheers,

Shadow.

Good, we definetly agree with that.

I guess a lot of people on this forum trust you and your analysis, some trust me and my analysis, some is not sure about either and might want to read different views. I guess my warning was in any case usefull and appropriate.
 
Hi TF,

Happy to engage in adult debate with people, and happy to take constructive criticism on board.

Time will tell ;)

But what I was actually referring to above were the gloomers who engage in pedantic nitpicking, or dig up old posts from years ago, quoting small sections out of context to prove I was 'wrong'. Or people who make comments like 'I could disprove everything Shadow says but I can't be bothered'. Or the people who dedicate multiple threads on other forums to the topic of 'debunking Shadow'.

To be frank, I'm not completely sure this is particularly supportive of your first comment. One person's nitpicking is another's pointing out inaccuracies. And let's get over the context thing. Your comments when you were starting/participating in the "boomish" threads here and elsewhere a year ago give a very obvious context and make clear your views at the time.

  • No impending correction.
  • Global Financial Crisis won't drive US into recession and certainly won't impact on resi prices in Australia
  • Decent growth over 08/09
  • Boom around the corner.
  • Massive crash late in the decade

Do you dispute this?

If not (he says, expecting equivocation of some sort), what part of your hypothesis or the data put forward in support do you think was off beam. What was missing?

There are at least five or six very active threads over in the main page of that forum dedicated to attacking and abusing me. Some of the comments have been really over the top. You know what threads I'm talking about, since you participated in some of them with your Yossarian account!

Fame..even in the shallow and muddy pool of internet forums, is not without its costs.

And, be honest, you weren't exactly pure as the new driven snow over there then or since.

I really don't see why you gloomers are so obsessed with me that you have to follow me round digging up old posts, starting multiple threads about me on your gloomer forum, jumping on everything I say to try and find the slightest inconsistency to attack me with. If I'm not even allowed to post on your forum, then why do you waste so much time and energy talking about me there?

Again with the reductio ad Gloomerum argument.

That said, if by Gloomer you mean anyone who would dare to suggest that (a) the GFC will screw credit availablity, (b) the GFC will screw the world economy, or (c) recessions aren't good for asset price appreciation, guilty as charged.

Again, not sure I'm seeing signs of the self-awareness that we were speaking of.



I mean, HG is now over there dedicating his entire weekends to debunking my articles. Go spend some time with your family HG! It all seems rather obsessive.

I'm figuring he'll be spending almost exactly the same time you spent writing it.

Chill out guys - I'm just some anonymous bloke making predictions on the internet! :rolleyes:

As are they ;)
 
Well, I can make a prediction, as many people have done. I might get it wrong, so please don't take this as financial advice and invest accordingly, okay? :D

The boom will begin... in Sydney... at 5:17pm... on Thursday 7th... of February... 2013.

By 'boom' I mean annual growth of 15-20%. We will of course experience moderate to strong growth in advance of the boom. :D

There was something on ACA tonight,(missed the first half) some suburbs went up by 75% in the past 12 months. Your 15%-20% p.a seems paltry by comparison.
 
Your comments when you were starting/participating in the "boomish" threads here and elsewhere a year ago give a very obvious context and make clear your views at the time.

  • No impending correction. Never said that. I have said many times I expect a small correction.
  • Global Financial Crisis won't drive US into recession and certainly won't impact on resi prices in Australia Never said that either.
  • Decent growth over 08/09 Not everywhere.
  • Boom around the corner. Nope... 2013-2014. Starting in Sydney.
  • Massive crash late in the decade. Yep. Yay - you got one right! :D

Do you dispute this?

Yes, most of it, as above.

If not (he says, expecting equivocation of some sort), what part of your hypothesis or the data put forward in support do you think was off beam.

None of it. We need to wait a few years before we'll know if I was right or not.

And, be honest, you weren't exactly pure as the new driven snow over there then or since.

Yes I was. I am free of guilt. Do you have evidence that proves otherwise? If so, please produce it.

by Gloomer you mean anyone who would dare to suggest that (a) the GFC will screw credit availablity, (b) the GFC will screw the world economy, or (c) recessions aren't good for asset price appreciation

Nope. That's not what I mean by gloomer. :D

Again, not sure I'm seeing signs of the self-awareness that we were speaking of.

You were speaking of it, not me (or we).

I'm figuring he'll be spending almost exactly the same time you spent writing it.

Nope. Didn't take me long. Most of it was stuff I had already posted on SS over the past year or two. Just needed a bit of reorganising. :)

As are they

Yes, but unlike them I'm not wasting my time creating multiple threads on a forum dedicated to abusing and attacking my 'enemies'. I don't waste my time trying to debunk, abuse or otherwise engage those guys in any way. I ignore them completely. Sure, I read the occasional thread there now and again, but in general the gloomers shouldn't even know I exist. Which is why I find it strange that they spend so much time talking about me! I think they might be slightly obsessed. :rolleyes:
 
...I really don't see why you gloomers are so obsessed with me that you have to follow me round digging up old posts, starting multiple threads about me on your gloomer forum, jumping on everything I say to try and find the slightest inconsistency to attack me with...

This is exactly where TF lets himself down and does significant damage to his cred. Why? I've no idea.

It's pretty clear that TF is not just your normal idiot that comes over here to whinge because property investors are the root of all evil. But, Shadow, when it comes to you, he behaves like one.
 
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