Cairns, House and land.

[Dolly]

The workforce participation rate is low at about 60%. This is possibly a new normal and could be an issue down the road...everywhere. In the US workforce participation rate is down to about 62% from a peak of 67% but they forecast it to be around 59% to 60% long term. We are becoming too efficient, replacing many hardware stores for eg with one big Bunnings. But we should have more money from cheaper stuff,or so the theory goes. Maybe the problem we will see with houses. Lower cost stuff means we have more money so we buy houses instead of stuff that creates jobs to replace the ones at the local hardware. Sorry went off on a tangent somehow Dolly's theory of Economics lol

Cairns holds promise but the town requires dedicated government planning. Otherwise people LOVE living here. So if we get a great politician (law of averages, has to happen one day) and provides that one missing ingredient it will be all systems go. Has so much going for it but yes the economy can be fragile at times.

 

[Kinnon Bell]

Not looking to start any arguments. That's what makes a market when people have counter ideas.
I go to Cairns every year, I love the place for a holiday.

ABS is more regional, Cairns as you would know covers a huge area. So your best looking in more depth at localised employment figures. Check with Cairns Council online. Here you go: http://economy.id.com.au/cairns/local-jobs

Nor am I - just adding to the conversation.

Azazel mentioned the population of the region and I was providing the ABS data to match.

 

[Burnhi]

So lots of unemployed/pensioners/elderly/children. Not itinerant?

When i'm talking itinerant, that means people travelling through. Holiday makers, backpackers etc. If you think that Cairns doesn't have this, then surely you are mistaken.

 

[Dolly]

When i'm talking itinerant, that means people travelling through. Holiday makers, backpackers etc. If you think that Cairns doesn't have this, then surely you are mistaken.

There are plenty of those but they are not included in population. We use ABS information in Cairns and understand it is not that accurate due to small sample size but the trend is what we try to keep an eye on. Population includes children so best to use participation rate from ABS. So the information you give us tells us nothing, it is just numbers. But true we have economic issues but not based on having itinerants.

 

[Azazel]

When i'm talking itinerant, that means people travelling through. Holiday makers, backpackers etc. If you think that Cairns doesn't have this, then surely you are mistaken.

Pretty much everywhere has that. You seemed to be insinuating that those who don't work in the 70,000 jobs you mentioned are carnies moving on to the next cashie job.

 

[beachy]

Terrible investment place. But could be contrarian theory.

My relative bought 2 houses there for $500-600k 4-5 years ago. They're worth $350-450k today

Your relative must have bought in undesirable or unpopular areas as 5 years ago, that's $250,000 - $300,000 per property and worth today $175,000 - $225,000. Can't get too many houses in Cairns for $225,000 now, so I would challenge your "appraised opinion". No different from any other regional market - it has ups and downs. The Cairns market is on the way up - in fact, growth of 10-15% has been recorded in the past 15 months. 5% in the not so good areas.

 

[Burnhi]

Pretty much everywhere has that. You seemed to be insinuating that those who don't work in the 70,000 jobs you mentioned are carnies moving on to the next cashie job.

"Pretty much everywhere has that."
No not everywhere is a major tourist attraction.

"You seemed to be insinuating that those who don't work in the 70,000 jobs you mentioned are carnies moving on to the next cashie job"
What is carnies? I think maybe you misread my original post, it was simply about growth (capital), which maybe slow in tourist reliable area.
The jobs reply, was against your population figures.

 

[Azazel]

Righto. Please lengthen your message to at least 10 characters.

 

[Matthe_w]

Well I am here now arrived first thing this morning and will be spending the rest of the weekend driving around, talking to people and looking at places. First impressions are that there is a fair amount of activity going on around the CBD and the place feels "alive". Albeit there appears to be an ironman competion on. Will write more once I get home.

Cheers again for all the comments I appreciate everyone's varied thoughts and opinions.

 

[Azazel]

Well I am here now arrived first thing this morning and will be spending the rest of the weekend driving around, talking to people and looking at places. First impressions are that there is a fair amount of activity going on around the CBD and the place feels "alive". Albeit there appears to be an ironman competion on. Will write more once I get home.

Cheers again for all the comments I appreciate everyone's varied thoughts and opinions.

Good on you, have fun. Don't go to the Woolshed whatever you do
Hope it's not too hot for you.

 

[Kinnon Bell]

Enjoy Matthew - though we could have put on some better weather for you! Wet season-esque rain at the moment.

Yes, Iron Man is happening this weekend. Main impact / road closures will be on Sunday with some of the Captain Cook hwy impacted but not too bad, just may add some travel time.

Happy to talk property over a coffee if you find yourself with some time to kill.

 

[Kinnon Bell]

Good on you, have fun. Don't go to the Woolshed whatever you do

You have me intrigued now! What's wrong with the Woolshed? I have never
been before but there's a function there next Friday night that I am attending.

Should I be worried?

 

[Bran]

You have me intrigued now! What's wrong with the Woolshed? I have never
been before but there's a function there next Friday night that I am attending.

Should I be worried?

Ha ha ha. Yes!

It's a place you should never go before 2am. After that, if you have cause to be out then the Woolshed is probably just icing on the very drunk cake.






Seriously, it's fine. But don't accidentally leave your wedding ring at home.

 

[Kinnon Bell]

Ha ha ha. Yes!

It's a place you should never go before 2am. After that, if you have cause to be out then the Woolshed is probably just icing on the very drunk cake.

Seriously, it's fine. But don't accidentally leave your wedding ring at home.

Uh oh! Function starts at 6pm and officially ends at 8pm and I plan on being well and truly tucked into bed at 2am so looks like I'll miss out on the fun!

Ha! Noted - I won't accidentally leave weddings rings (or husband) at home

I have only been 'out' in Cairns once before and that was an interesting night. Maybe I should make more of a habit of it!

 

[Azazel]

You have me intrigued now! What's wrong with the Woolshed? I have never
been before but there's a function there next Friday night that I am attending.
Should I be worried?

Very worried, you might just have lots of fun
It was a funny place the 1st time I went there while on holidays.

 

[Bran]

Uh oh! Function starts at 6pm and officially ends at 8pm and I plan on being well and truly tucked into bed at 2am so looks like I'll miss out on the fun!

Ha! Noted - I won't accidentally leave weddings rings (or husband) at home

I have only been 'out' in Cairns once before and that was an interesting night. Maybe I should make more of a habit of it!

The main contingent of the woodshed won't even be out of bed by 8pm. Just don't eat off the tables if food falls off your plate.

The woodshed was always the mark of a cracking good night, and the harbinger of much pain the next day.

 

[Azazel]

The main contingent of the woodshed won't even be out of bed by 8pm. Just don't eat off the tables if food falls off your plate.
The woodshed was always the mark of a cracking good night, and the harbinger of much pain the next day.

Hmm, just had a flashback - earlier in the evening, having dinner at the long tables, all very civilised. Fast forward to later in the night, backpackers dancing on the tables. Funny place.

 

[see_change]

We live in Sydney and have done dd on cairns in the past and decided the economy is too dependant on tourism , though I think it is more diversified now .

There are three places I'm thinking of investing at the moment and Adelaide is one of them .

The fact that it's done nothing for six years is exactly the reason why we're thinking of it and from what I understand for forum chatter it's starting to move .

Cairns isn't one of the others . Maintainance and insurance are an issue up there

Seriously have a think about it before you commit . Spend some time reading on forum . If your getting advice from someone on what to buy , talk to someone else .

Cliff

 

[Azazel]

There are three places I'm thinking of investing at the moment and Adelaide is one of them .
The fact that it's done nothing for six years is exactly the reason why we're thinking of it and from what I understand for forum chatter it's starting to move
Cairns isn't one of the others . Maintainance and insurance are an issue up there

You're recommending Adelaide over Cairns based on some chatter you read on the forum, and saying maintenance & insurance is only an issue up North.

 

[see_change]

So out of nine replies to this thread , your only one where you've actually ventured an opinion is response addressing the OP is you first ...... The rest are aimed at responses .

Are you recommending a H&l package at the moment or not ?

I've responded to the OP.

For me timing is everything . They live in Adelaide and made the observatiaion that it hasn't done anything for several years . I think that's a good thing

Chatter ... I think the longest thread on the forum is about opportunities in Adelaide at the moment and there are several other long posts .
I have had several conversations with high profile and respected members in recent months who know Adelaide and they think now is a good time to buy there .
Given that Adelaide is currently one of the under performing capitals , a period of catch up is expected based on history .

There has been a lot of anecdotal reports on Adelaide moving , on the forum for a while and recently in the property media .

The informed forum chatter in my experience is accurate and I can't recall any instances where there is widespread consensus of it getting it wrong .

H&L packages being advised from interstate by a new poster suggests marketing to me , so I would advise against that and suggest a period of research followed by some questions ( such as this one )

Cairns will move at some stage , but I think Adelaide and Brisbane will move much sooner . If I was in Adelaide I'd be buying as many established properties , as fast as I could . There are several Adelaide centric poster who would be happy to give advice , Corey batt , Brady , DaveH spring to mind . By the time cairns starts moving , you will have good equity from your Adelaide investments to allow you to buy in cairns in a year or two .

We've done extensive dd on cairns in the last cycle , but preferred rocky and Townsville due to their more diversified economy .

For me , cairns is two concentrated on tourism , the same way that Gladstone was too focused on mining and resource projects . In the last cycle we ignored both and did well in rocky and Townsville .

People who invested in cairns in the last cycle did well . Gladstone ....

Check out posts by chrispy who did well in cairns last cycle and JENJEN who is a BA in FNQ .

cliff

The last one trick twin we looked at and ignored