Capital gains.. from where exactly?

Hi LL,

That is the type of technology that I don't doubt can happen, though as Sunfish suggests 'where do the materials come from and how'.

This is the issue....

becoming a site for a factory to produce 5000 cars a year.

The long term plan is for a factory to eventually be set up, if the model appears to work. But the bigger factory, in England, is only going to produce 5000 cars a year.

Let's assume that the bigger factory is up and running in 5 years time. The question is what about transport for the other 99.5% of the population???
plus, where does the infrastructure for the hydrogen come from?? Where does the hydrogen come from?? What about the farmers, miners and large transport companies that are using diesel, what can they use???

bye
 
battery power is useless until we can find a better medium to hold a charge - using deep cell zinc/copper/lead cores dates back to Ancient Egypt.

the world needs to move to a better medium use if electrical power is to be used en-masse. we also need to utilise better charging methods, possibly EM charging or even radiation charging.
 
What are carbon fibre and the resins made of? How much energy is expended making a wind mill?

...and your point is ....?????

LL
PS I think google could answer these better than I... if you really want to know. My point was merely to show (1) light weight materials are a reality and (2) it changes the fuel consumption substantially.
 
.. 'where do the materials come from and how'.
This is the issue....
The materials ( believe or not) come from planet Earth.
The question is what about transport for the other 99.5% of the population???
Possibly, if it's a winner, other car companies might build more factories.. do you think that's a maybe, maybe?

plus, where does the infrastructure for the hydrogen come from??
I don't think Hydrogen is a "goer" but that's a personal opinion. The technology is complex and expensive. But if it is, we'll build it, just like we built oil refineries & petrol stations etc etc. There's a LOT of profit to be made.

Where does the hydrogen come from??
Your choice is (a) out of the atmosphere or (b) out of water. There's plenty of both. But it's not "free". It takes energy to produce.
What about the farmers, miners and large transport companies that are using diesel, what can they use???
Probably still diesel. And planes will use kerosene for the finite future I think.
LL
 
battery power is useless until we can find a better medium to hold a charge - using deep cell zinc/copper/lead cores dates back to Ancient Egypt.
Wow, what planet have been you been on ? Checked out the battery in your (tiny) cell phone lately. Sure isn't zinc/copper etc. You may want to google the Tesla car. Some neat battery stuff there. Others soon to appear.

the world needs to move to a better medium use if electrical power is to be used en-masse. we also need to utilise better charging methods, possibly EM charging or even radiation charging.
Oh I don't know. We got electricity cables in most places now. It works pretty well. And we have LOTS of off peak capacity to use. But EM already exists for in-house applications . Here's a video you may like.
http://www.ted.com/talks/eric_giler_demos_wireless_electricity.html
(if the link does not work google "ted electricity through the air".
LL
 
LL,

Perhaps you need to do a little research into the subject, as there is likely to be an impact on property. Different types of property will probably have different outcomes.

Here is a couple of reputable? sources, though I would like to read some of your sources that say we have nothing to worry about....

First one Lloyds of London

“A supply crunch appears likely around 2013…given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible”

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/16720_0610_froggatt_lahn.pdf

Queensland?? They had a 'Oil Vulnerability Taskforce' They get the "we have a problem" bit right, but all they do is suggest slightly higher prices scenarios, which have already been massively exceeded.

http://www.transport.qld.gov.au/Home/Projects_and_initiatives/Projects/Oil_vulnerability_mitigation/

bye
 
Perhaps you need to do a little research into the subject, as there is likely to be an impact on property.
Sorry, there won't be an impact on property (from oil shortage) because it isn't going to happen. Mainly because the world has such vast ( and I mean VAST ...thousands of years supply) of other hydrocarbons ( coal, CNG, LPG etc) that can be converted to oil if need. Plus there are technological advances all the time that either reduce oil consumption ( light weight vehicles) or provide alternatives ( plug in electric vehicles). Feel free to google "how to convert coal to oil" and read some links. Here's one..
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/could-coal-replace-oil.aspx
Coal to oil technology is sooo old Germany used it in WW2. In recent times, South Africa has improved the technology and has it in production. And we have enough coal (alone) for thousands of years.
So ... if we can convert coal to oil ( at a half-reasonable price) and we have thousands of years supply of coal as well as HEAPS of NG and LPG etc and we have electric vehicles coming along etc etc ....where's the problem?
LL
 
Hi LL,

where's the problem?

Exactly where I have been saying all along, TIME.

I agree that all those things you mention are possible and will happen over time. The costs of all of them will be much higher than we pay at present, but they will take time to ramp up. They will also take huge amounts of capital to get going, hard to find capital.

Not much is happening now on a commercial scale, large enough to take over from massive current spending on petro-vehicles. Only when fuel goes through the roof and coupons for limiting purchases become common, will there be demand for the alternatives. But it will take time to ramp up production of them.

It is the intervening period when prices are high, oil in short supply, rationing happening, that the economy will suffer and property will be influenced, as in peoples perceptions of where they need to live will change.

Just the fact that oil is currently US$75/brl, yet most of the western world is in serious recession, has to tell you there is a problem.

bye
 
Just the fact that oil is currently US$75/brl, yet most of the western world is in serious recession, has to tell you there is a problem.

the first thing it tells me is that the western world is slipping as the number one consumer force on this planet. living standards in the US have a LONG way to fall. the UK is facing up to reality sooner than later though
 
Exactly where I have been saying all along, TIME.
I can see where you're coming from Bill L, from but I cannot share your "dark intervening period" outlook. The human species can be very innovative and very productive under the "right" circumstances/pressure. Just witness e.g. how rapidly nations geared up to produce weapons/boats/planes etc for the wars. ( I know, a sad reference, but relevant IMO.) If things really get bad we are capable of almost anything. And if there's huge profits as well , stand back, because it will happen:).
LL
 
LL,

Just witness e.g. how rapidly nations geared up to produce weapons/boats/planes etc for the wars. ( I know, a sad reference, but relevant IMO.)

And you don't think such an event will have an impact on property??

Plus, wars end, life goes back to normal. Peak oil doesn't end, there is a change in thinking in terms of energy and transport.

bye
 
Not really. But we differ in our opinions. I think we'll see a gradual transition with many different energy sources ( some hyrocarbon, some hybrid, some electric, some human ( bicycles)) and new materials and technologies. If they build a battery plant e.g. in China and 20% of cars become electric, why would that impact on property prices? If they then build a new power station e.g. ( somewhere) ditto? There could be a (positive) regional effect on property in the vicinity of the power station, but that kind of issue is part of our market already( e.g. mining towns).

I think your POV is that this "peak oil" will come upon us "out of the blue" and catch us un-prepared. I just can't see it. But my point about the "war effort" was, if there is some urgency to the matter, mankind will handle it.

I just wish I'd bought all those V8s in the 70s :(when this "scare" was around the first time! Now it's a bit "boy who cried wolf" to me.
LL
 
LL,

I think your POV is that this "peak oil" will come upon us "out of the blue" and catch us un-prepared.

I just can't see it.

Ummm, I think you are 100% right here. It has crept up on us and is going to catch us (the general us) unprepared.

If you could see it, then there is much less likelyhood of being unprepared, again a general you, for the population as a whole.

Here is a few snippets from Obamas speech this morning....

After all, oil is a finite resource.

For decades, we have known the days of cheap and easily accessible oil were numbered.

And for decades, we have failed to act with the sense of urgency that this challenge requires.

The consequences of our inaction are now in plain sight.

This is not some distant vision for America. The transition away from fossil fuels will take some time

there are costs associated with this transition. And some believe we can't afford those costs right now. I say we can't afford not to change how we produce and use energy

I am happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either party - as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil fuels.

The one answer I will not settle for is the idea that this challenge is too big and too difficult to meet.

Even if we don't yet know precisely how to get there

LL, how much more clearly could a politician say it other than that?? Or is Obama also lying or just does not know what he is talking about??

I contend that you cannot see it only because you don't want to look.

Sometimes the truth is hidden in plain sight.

bye
 
.....being in the oil industry for over 20 years, this conversion is definitely one to avoid for me. Way too high level. Global flows, political forces, raw prices of crude with it's 400 factors influencing prices.


One thing I do agree, and relish, is seeing the Americans be forced to back off from their consumerism, that rides on the back of cheap oil. Pull the plug and watch the prized spoilt princesses - especially the young who've never done tough....oh the joy. A room full of plastic, not a thing that doesn't require power, a car by 16, and automatic everything. Noice.


Hey - how small are those nuclear reactors on submarines ?? They can't be too big can they ?? Why aren't we using those for producing buku cheap clean electricity. Just pave the waste material on the streets of Hollywood - no harm there. Bwahahahaha.
 
Bill, I can but say you have infinitely more faith in politicians than I. (Now I know that's a "tough, difficult decision" for "Autralian working families", but that's how I am ..."fair shake of the sauce bottle now cobber, mate etc.")

Especially American politicians . Doubly, triple especially American presidents looking for a second term, and facing a huge oil spill. I could go on. I think I've heard this "We (the US) have to give up cheap oil" speech from every American politician of note over the last 20 years. But it NEVER goes any further. So, let's see how fair-dinkum he is. If he's true-blue he should IMMEDIATELY raise the US taxes on petrol (gas) big-time. Let's see if he does it.

You are probably aware Aussie petrol is (roughly) double USA, and Europe is (roughly) double Aussie. IOW Europe pays about quadruple the US pump prices. And Europe keeps going.. So Obama-rama has a LOT of lee-way to play with.

Has he got the guts as he ( the first "tan" American president) goes for a 2nd term. Hmmm . What do you reckon ?
LL
 
.... Americans be forced to back off from their consumerism, that rides on the back of cheap oil.
All good points Dazz, but it's a democracy. And right now it's a democracy with lot's of problems on lot's of fronts. The pollies do what will get them re-elected.
LL
 
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