Conflicting informatiom....

I have bought both the decemeber issue of API and Your investment property and was wondering does anyone else find the property price guide so conflicting between the two magazines?
Usually do, that's why you don't base investments, or anything for that matter from a third party.

Trust your own judgement and what's actually going on.
I have bought both the decemeber issue of API and Your investment property and was wondering does anyone else find the property price guide so conflicting between the two magazines?

I did some investigating on another thread for CG of Pymble units in 2009.
RP Data has them falling 6.8%
APM has them falling 12%
PDS Live has them falling 16.9%
ABS will be different too.
I don't know about Residex but whatever it is it will be a different number also.

The discrepancies come from how they measure changes.
RP Data uses a hedonic index.
Residex measures resales of the same property over time.
etc etc. - so until we get some consistency in how the measurements are made and then adjusted, there will always be this issue.
Residex wins then

-1 %

I love black box data and have been using it for 10 years.

BUT, you cant beat on the ground knowledge...........thats why buyers agents are doing so well, they truly add value to most buying decisions.

caught the opinions of two economists on sydney growth for 2010 ... one said growth by 9%, the other said decline by -7%.

BUT sydney is a huge market ... some area may grow by more than 9% and other areas may decline by more than -7%. it is up to you to know your areas, the demand for such and potential value increase.
It is confusing isn't it?

Prop is right when he refers to different methodologies- I like Residex and have been referring to their growth figures for over 10 yrs now myself. Residex actually won an international actuarial award for their "Dwelling Price Trading Index" method, which they currently use in their quarterly reports- quite different from the simpler methods used by others to generate data.

However every method is flawed and statistics can be skewed by such factors such as new developments (creating a "false" impression of improved growth or median values) lack of sufficient sales to generate a reliable median, high amounts of renovated properties in one suburb compared to another etc. There's lots of variables, hence the need to not solely rely on growth figures (and, in particular, rental yields) when making a decision on where and what to buy. Obviously local knowledge is paramount (down to street level in some suburbs/towns) as is current activity. I also like the Reno Kings philosophy of "following the infrastructure"- even in an established area new projects such as transport links, increased parking stations, schools, community spaces etc can add value to property.
Following the median methodology is flawed in so many ways for sale price and rental movements. Much better to track individual resales and rents and build data like that from the ground up, compensating for issues such as unimproved resales and the like. This is pretty much known intuitively by a person with a lot of local micro knowledge, though for a larger area over many suburbs or even an entire city you will need someone with serious number crunching time on their side. Matusik insights are one group that do this type of research for the Brisbane market.

I too like the reno kings infrastructure idea, which is one of the known and largely predictable drivers of price with real estate, also their buying on the 'ways' (busy and main roads) and looking for the opportunities in the overgrown front lawns and 'problem' properties are fantastic ideas. Also they mention the tender section of the local paper as a great way to source ideas, eg: a tender for a police station to be built in Morningside was an indication for them that the low values in that suburb relative to surrounding areas (crime problems) might just vanish :)

Info on Residex indices and the actual free data at a city level which I refer to as a decent general guide for the total property market in Australia.