cup day rate cut

With low CPI out today, most economist expect a 25pt rate cut on cup day.

I am thinking that the RBA may hold and cut in Dec instead.

Thoughts?
 
the threat of an economic break out from a resources boom is more real than the nervousness in europe. to drop rates now could be petrol on the fire. personally I think they should drop them a little now then whack them up hard mid next year, but stunned mullet seems to be the approach at the moment.
 
Is 0.6% for an annualised 3.6% low inflation? I doubt the RBA would think so.

They'll hold is my GUESS!
3.6% for the past year, but I think they've said a few times that they're not paying too much attention to the figures from the start of the year.. this past quarter is 33% less than the previous - trending down a fair bit.

I seem to remember electricity, water/sewerage and rates going up heaps last quarter too.. Come to think if it, since we're billed seperately for rates/water in Brisbane, the two combined are about double what I was paying 4yrs ago.
 
In my the opinion this "Born Again Christian" Governor of the RBA and his mates on the board from "Hillsong" are waiting for devine intervention!

This dill is seriously about to stuff up the economy as he can't see pay the 2-3% inflation target. The numbers all indicate that the economy is slowing and now even mining - well Iron prices are falling which is a sign that China is slowing.

Glenn Stevens in my opinion is the most incompetent Governor we have had...bring back Bernie Fraser or Ian MacFarlane!

I hope there is a cut in November as it takes sometime for it to affect confidence...which is the key here!

If Stevens want to make an impact cut rates by 25 basis points in Nov and then another 25 basis points in Dec. Then he has till Easter to sit on his hands.

Do nothing now and wait till Feb!....and he is going to have to cut deep next year....blind freddie can see this coming! This option is not good because we will back to a boom bust cycle!

MacFarlane kept it the economy stready...now we are about to go back to the 80s where we had massive booms and busts!
 
In my the opinion this "Born Again Christian" Governor of the RBA and his mates on the board from "Hillsong" are waiting for devine intervention!

I dont see how his religious beliefs have any relevance to his performance... and even less how Hillsong is relevant.
I would suggest you keep on the topic of his performance, rather than religion. Otherwise, this discussion will very quickly deteriorate.
 
Could not agree more...unfortunately what I say is true.

Suggest you research the background of the RBA Gov and some on the board.....reminds of George Bush and the Republicans.

As for Hillsong.....suggest you do some reading there also!



I dont see how his religious beliefs have any relevance to his performance... and even less how Hillsong is relevant.
I would suggest you keep on the topic of his performance, rather than religion. Otherwise, this discussion will very quickly deteriorate.
 
3.6% for the past year, but I think they've said a few times that they're not paying too much attention to the figures from the start of the year.. this past quarter is 33% less than the previous - trending down a fair bit.

I seem to remember electricity, water/sewerage and rates going up heaps last quarter too.. Come to think if it, since we're billed seperately for rates/water in Brisbane, the two combined are about double what I was paying 4yrs ago.

Yeah. They are now talking about underlying inflation and that is more modest. The markets are pricing in a cut, and who am I to argue?
 
Could not agree more...unfortunately what I say is true.

Suggest you research the background of the RBA Gov and some on the board.....reminds of George Bush and the Republicans.

As for Hillsong.....suggest you do some reading there also!

what you say is no doubt based on some beat up newspaper article by someone who has a personal grudge against Christians/ Hillsong.....
and as I said, we should judge people by their work performance, not by their faith. The fact that members of the RBA go to a church, or a mosque or a "athiests anonymous" meeting should make no difference... they either do a good job or a bad job, and they should be judged on that.
 
I think the reserve bank like to keep everyone guessing... so if people are expecting a cut, they'll hold off.
But I would like them to cut the rates... I think it will bring a few buyers out of the woodwork and we are selling our PPOR.. first open home is the first Saturday in November, just after the announcement.
If it happened, I'd be beginning to think we had "gold thumbs". We sold an IP a number of years ago, and everyone told us we were crazy. Just after we exchanged contracts, and before settlement, they put the interest rates up.. it was the first interest rate rise in ages, and the market got spooked. The prices in our complex dropped by about $30 000 within 2-3months.
So, we'll see if we can time it so well in the opposite direction.
 
trimmed inflation sitting in the middle of their range (2.3%) and weighted at 2.5 does not mean they need to cut based on that number alone to rein in deflation. If these measures were less than 2%, then there would be a case for a quick cut on numbers alone.

Few other reasons why I think RBA will keep rates on hold

* Banks have already dropped their rates recently, therefore reducing cash rate will have miminal impact given banks have stated they will not pass on the full cut. If RBA needed to stimulate the ecomony, they would need a 50pct cut - but this is unlikely given where inflation sits.

* G20 meeting to finalise Greece bailout is due 3 Nov onwards hence RBA will prefer to wait for the final take on the EU bailout before jumping the gun

* If markets crash after the bailout, they can always do an emergency rate cut of say 50pct

* Given the unexpected and sudden drop in inflation, they would like to see the next CPI to see if theres a trend or this is an anormaly.


* Share market has rallied from the lows (more strong gains today) - sentiment is up.

In summary, RBA does not have enough information to cut based on one set of figures. They will keep rates on hold and potentially cut in dec if need IMO

Sportsbet odds earlier today was.. $3 stay the same and $1.20 increase by 25pct.. you can guess which way I placed my bets :D
 
I dont see how his religious beliefs have any relevance to his performance... and even less how Hillsong is relevant.
I would suggest you keep on the topic of his performance, rather than religion. Otherwise, this discussion will very quickly deteriorate.

Totally agree with you pennyk. Our leaders come from all backgrounds. What they choose to believe in is their business. Glenn Stevens hasn't done that badly - I'm sure that there would be plenty of Central Bank governors throughout the world who would love to be in his situation.

I'd love a rate cut on Melbourne Cup day but don't think that it would happen especially after the "good" news on Europe today.
 
With the sudden upswing of the stockmarket today and the OZ dollar then I doubt rates will be cut now unfortunately. Although yesterday some economists were even predicting a .50 cut so who knows.... it will depend a lot on what happens in stocks and AU dollar in the week of the meeting.... the problem is this treasurer and his mates have their own huge fortunes so they are much more in favour of putting rates up for their own personal interests.
 
But I would like them to cut the rates... I think it will bring a few buyers out of the woodwork and we are selling our PPOR.. first open home is the first Saturday in November, just after the announcement.
If it happened, I'd be beginning to think we had "gold thumbs". We sold an IP a number of years ago, and everyone told us we were crazy. Just after we exchanged contracts, and before settlement, they put the interest rates up.. it was the first interest rate rise in ages, and the market got spooked. The prices in our complex dropped by about $30 000 within 2-3months.
So, we'll see if we can time it so well in the opposite direction.

:confused:

The opposite direction. So you sell your PPOR, rates drop and prices are stimulated so the new owner makes $30,000 within 2 - 3 months :D

Sorry, had to say it
 
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