Definition of 'Sleeper Suburb

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From: Adam Weisser


Hi all.

I was intrigued about what the wife had to say about buying in "sleeper suburbs". So I went to looking for them.

I cut and paste all the median price info that I could find on the web. This consists of the last two years from REIV (sorry those unlucky enough not to live in Vic).

Attached is my one hour analysis of the data.

I guess a sleeper suburb wouldn't be one with a growth of 20%+ over the last two years. Or is it?
 
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Reply: 1
From: Robert Forward


Well that is a bit of a masterpiece of work.

Thanks

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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Reply: 2
From: Glenn S


one awesome spreadsheet!.

can you do one for NSW...(-:
 
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Reply: 2.1
From: Sergey Golovin


Wow,

Property in Toorak rose by $334,750 in March 2000 in one year and then fell by $305,000 in September of same year.

What a fluctuation. What a Rolla coaster.

Serge.
 
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Reply: 2.2
From: Steve Richards


Excellent work
Thanx.
 
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Reply: 3
From: Jakk Bass - The SLUM LORD


Adam,

You have 'Excel'd yourself, great piece of work.

regards
Jakk
 
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Reply: 3.1
From: Glenn M


Maybe my PC is acting up, but I can't seem to open the file Adam has posted (in Excel). It says that the file is unrecognizable. Can someone help me?



GlennM.
 
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Reply: 3.1.1
From: Robert Forward


Hi Glenn

It's actually Winzip'd. So you'll need Winzip to be able to open it firstly.

Cheers
Robert

The Sydney "Freestylers" Group Leader.
 
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Reply: 2.1.1
From: Anonymous


Serge,

A word of caution about the fall in median prices for suburbs.

You need to know the suburb for it to have any relevance. eg. Did Toorak have a large number of units come on line and sell during the period, thus lowering the median as a whole? It may be that house prices and units went up in price but because the balance of the suburb shifted the median price fell.

Case in point near where I sometimes live; average house price $450k and unit price $180k. In the last 6 months prices have risen 10% for both but the median has fallen $45k due to the large number of units in the figures.

Some statistics separate units/townhouses verus houses, but even then can you compare a townhouse 2/4/6/8 plex to a high rise block?

This is not a criticism of the spread sheet, well done Adam.
 
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Reply: 4
From: The Wife


Adam,

WOW! Great spreadsheet! My husband commented how good it was as well, he said "finally, somebody who can see whats going on in your head".

Adam, which ones do you think are sleeper suburbs from your spreadsheet?

Are people focusing on the ones that have taken massive losses, or the ones that have had massive gains?

Can any locals in the areas of the losses tell us why they think the loss happened?

I was pleased to see that my thoughts of ALL areas having gains and losses, and then again, gains and losses, are true according to Adams spreadsheet.

What did everyone else 'read' from the numbers?

Thanks Adam, well done.

TW
~Life is a daring adventure, or nothing at all~
 
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Reply: 4.1
From: Adam Weisser


I don't think you can look at the spreadsheet and say: "That's a sleeper suburb. That one! There!", but to me it gives an indication which areas have done the bolt and which ones haven't.

I reckon the ones to look at at the ones between 10%-15% to see if their comparatively modest rises are well deserved or not. If they are, then they may stay asleep a while longer.

But maybe there's a gem in there somewhere...

Does anyone happen to know of a handy-dandy resource to give a distance from the CBD of a suburb (in Melbourne, obviously)?

Adam

P.S. thanks for the +ve feedback on the spreadsheet. You should see my budget!
 
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Reply: 4.1.1
From: Juzz O'K


Adam

Are these median prices of houses or
units, and are the prices council vals
from the Land Data database or Sales data.

Justin
 
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Reply: 4.1.1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


Anon,

Yes I do perfectly understand that $350K up or down it is an extreme and very general.
I just was surprised how dramatic some of those figures are. I can accept some fluctuations, but that much in such steady market...Is it coincidence or someone dirty tricks?
Obviously some one paid and lost and someone gained.


Adam,

About distances from the suburb to suburb - any transport co. will have them, specially delivery and taxi once. How can you approach them? I do not know. Maybe ask delivery co. to deliver a parcel for you and ask for a catalogue/tables of distances.
They might give it to you or might not. If it did not help then try contact street directory people and ask them very same question (tables) or ask to refer you to other source.
Or you can use public organizations such as Tourist Commission/Bureau or Local Government of that city (what you call them - office of Mayor of City or something?).

You are very determined man Adam; looks like your budget will increase again, just slightly.

Serge.
 
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Reply: 4.1.1.1.1
From: Anonymous


Hi Serge,

I am guessing here but in Toorak the market is probably very diverse and a significant sale may distort the market in that quarter.

eg. 200 to 400 units come on line and sell quickly, say 6 weeks. This would drag the overall market down if they were 1 and 2 bedders. Particularly if in the previous quarter the sales were dominated by million dollar plus mansions.

I know its not about to happen but imagine a block of 200 one bedders and bedsits landing in Balmoral! Average sale price $400K in suburb with a median price of over $1M.
 
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Reply: 4.1.1.1.1.1
From: Sergey Golovin


Aaah!

Thanks, small "hint" but I understood.
Sometime it takes while to get to the bottom of the issue.
Yes of course, you are right, silly of me.
Oh well...

Thanks again.

Serge.
 
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Reply: 4.1.1.2
From: Adam Weisser


On 9/11/01 1:47:00 PM, Juzz O'K wrote:
>Are these median prices of
>houses or
>units, and are the prices
>council vals
>from the Land Data database or
>Sales data.

I got this data from the REIV Web Site (http://www.reiv.com.au/pg_medianprices.htm).

Follow the House Prices links.
 
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Reply: 4.1.1.2.1
From: Anne-Marie H


Adam,

Excellent spreadsheet, thanks.

Melway's puts out a dinner table sized Melbourne map with 5km radius circles from CBD.

Anne-Marie
 
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Reply: 2.1.1.1
From: Dave :)


Great work Adam,

Definately makes for some interesting reading.

Out of curiosity, I looked at the Delta % in the suburb of Footscray - it was 25% according to your spreadsheet. 5 months back, I asked for feedback from people about what they thought of this suburb. Most of the feedback was quite negative. "No strong history of capital growth" was the message. I went with my gut feel. Bought OTP, in a market which was already hot, for $200K. Last week, nothing has been started yet, I had the property valued at $270K. I guess my instinct on Footscray being a 'sleeper suburb' was right.

Great work Adam.

Cheers,

Dave
:)

{Life's short...play hard}
 
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