Denial/Fear - Property Market Rising

[MTR]

What is it that makes the human psyche reject/ignore something as simple as a property market rising. Worst case scenario, you can make money, wow that is a tough one.

I am very curious, in today's property market we have plenty of evidence that various markets around Australia are moving, not just in the media, stats by reputable Australia wide BA, researchers, banks, auction clearances, sales evidence of movement as much as 20%+ in various capital cities.

Yet, I notice some very negative reactions when there is mention of a property boom/rising market.

So why do some people actually reject this on this forum, I don't understand this mentality, its almost bloody mindedness, "I am right you are wrong... so there", or is it denial or fear??

A very deep and meaningful question

 

[jackbak]

When you're talking very large sums of money the emotions that you mentioned are always going to come up because money is so important in society.

As for differing opinion on rising house prices I think that's got a lot to do with what's happening in a persons local area, if prices are stagnating in the suburb they live or invest in then they would be much less likely to believe the evidence produced by others.

 

[MTR]

Yes, good points.

I don't just invest in my own backyard and am perhaps assuming others are doing the same, which is not necessarily the case. This of course would not be for everyone.

 

[SWS]

Fear of debt and indecision for others ... should I / shouldn't I - what if this, what if that.

It's a bit like going on a diet - unless you really want to do it for yourself there is no point in someone trying to force the idea of it.

 

[MTR]

SWS

Not sure if anyone is really forcing the idea?

I think perhaps insecurities come into play, when someone (guilty of this) is not comfortable or fearful of a particular situation it is sometimes far easier to reject it outright, a way out.

 

[roe]

So why do some people actually reject this on this forum, I don't understand this mentality, its almost bloody mindedness, "I am right you are wrong... so there", or is it denial or fear??

A very deep and meaningful question

That what makes the market, different ideas of values, opinions

If you got strong foundation and know your stuff and make solid decision
That can withstand the test of time then

What everyone else think doesn't matter, it matters what you think and how you execute your plan and decision.

 

[MTR]

That what makes the market, different ideas of values, opinions

If you got strong foundation and know your stuff and make solid decision
That can withstand the test of time then

What everyone else think doesn't matter, it matters what you think and how you execute your plan and decision.

But its not about my ideas, this is irrelevant, its the concept that some investors are not researching the data and working it out for themselves, they are just simply rejecting the information for whatever reason and obviously not looking at evidence available. Its not necessarily anything to do with my posts whatsoever.

 

[SWS]

Apologies MTR ... wasn't referring to anyone in particular "forcing" the idea. Broad example only.

I guess for some people it is that little bit more out of their reach now ... great for some not so great for others. The thought of possibly saving for another year or two to get that deposit together just doesn't excite them.

 

[MTR]

SWS
No need to apologise.

I guess if you are a newbie and working through the process still trying to build equity, not as easy to just jump in.

 

[EN710]

Yet, I notice some very negative reactions when there is mention of a property boom/rising market.

So why do some people actually reject this on this forum, I don't understand this mentality, its almost bloody mindedness, "I am right you are wrong... so there", or is it denial or fear??

A very deep and meaningful question

Not sure about people in forum, but from peers around, those who had negative reaction to the boom market (in Sydney specifically) are those who want the price to go down so they can afford one. For them the boom is not great as they feel left behind.

Heck I feel left behind... I want to be able to buy another 2-3 properties before Sydney boom like crazy.

 

[willair]

.

I am very curious, in today's property market we have plenty of evidence that various markets around Australia are moving, not just in the media, stats by reputable Australia wide BA, researchers, banks, auction clearances, sales evidence of movement as much as 20%+ in various capital cities.

I was sitting in the :AGM: of a well know QLD Bank,a few hours ago prior too the start,sat by myself in right hand corner like always so I can watch everything 2 gentlemen on the board came and sat down next too me had a quick talk about property and by what they said QLD is not doing too well,one gentleman told me Qld in general across the total state has only gone up less then 2% in the last 12 months,the other said some people treat it like a Monopoly Game but they have the advantage of the information in front of their eyes everyday,as they said it's different down south in NSW-VIC,it never pays ignoring some information that some can not see..imho..

 

[HiEquity]

MTR

The evidence cuts both ways - some properties are rising, others are falling. I can definitely see this with my own eyes. Just as during a general downturn there are plenty of properties that grow well then also during a general upturn there are plenty of properties that do poorly.

In my view, we should always be focussed next on what specific property will do well, rather than the general state of the market, because choosing the right property is always the name of the game, regardless of what the market is doing. Unless you get lucky for whatever reason, just buying any old property is always a recipe for mediocre results and nobody wants that.

For example, development sites have been where the action has been in Perth lately and it looks toppy so buying them now seems dangerous, given how much they have already grown. What's the next product that will grow?

And many long term investors exposed to devvy sites on this forum are just getting back to the position they were in 5 years ago...

 

[underdev]

But its not about my ideas, this is irrelevant, its the concept that some investors are not researching the data and working it out for themselves, they are just simply rejecting the information for whatever reason and obviously not looking at evidence available. Its not necessarily anything to do with my posts whatsoever.

Where are you getting your data from? Are you sure the sources that produce this data are reliable and free from vested interests?

Be careful when analysing data, statistics can be used to prove anything the manipulator so desires.

Maybe small parts of Sydney are booming it sure aint booming here in SA

 

[MTR]

Hi HE
I am sure there is some truth in this, investors who have been in the game/developing for a while are now just getting back to the position they were in 5 years ago. Fortunately, I have diversified Australia wide this pretty much saved my bacon, one market down/one market up, reducing risk and helping with cashflow.

However, I have just offloaded one of my properties I built 7 years ago, paid around $300,000 to build on completion 2006 it would have easily sold for $500,000, I was building 4 pa, the market turned very quickly a matter of months. I just sold and settled this week on this property at $435,000. Now I preach to investors, take some money off the table as markets do go from boom/bust and no fun waiting for another cycle.

 

[jackbak]

Yes, good points.

I don't just invest in my own backyard and am perhaps assuming others are doing the same, which is not necessarily the case. This of course would not be for everyone.

I do but it's just worked out that way because my only IP is my previous PPOR which is close to my current PPOR, so both my properties are within 10-15 minute drive. I heard a stat once, it was something like: 85% of people invest within 15 minutes of their home.

 

[MTR]

Where are you getting your data from? Are you sure the sources that produce this data are reliable and free from vested interests?

Be careful when analysing data, statistics can be used to prove anything the manipulator so desires.

Maybe small parts of Sydney are booming it sure aint booming here in SA

I know its not booming in SA, that's why I would not be jumping into this market atm.

I am a simple person, in other words not good with charts, I don't rely on stats completely, I look at what is happening on the ground, and talk to the real people who sell/buy/live and breath it, I talk to people who also deal with investors on a daily basis, get tips, where are they buying, what's happening, keep asking lots of questions. I look at supply/demand, and its really not rocket science, its as simple at getting on the net and checking out how many properties on the market, how quickly are they selling in your identified area, how many on the market pa in the identified area, 7 offers on the table for one property, I think that could be a BOOM.

 

[Tano]

Hi Marisa
So you talk to local real estate agents and property managers? How do you get them to share info if they are busy or suspect you are not going to use their services? What would you angle be?

 

[MTR]

Hi Marisa
So you talk to local real estate agents and property managers? How do you get them to share info if they are busy or suspect you are not going to use their services? What would you angle be?

I don't talk to property managers they would generally not have much of a clue, talk to real estate agents, mortgage brokers, builders, my conveyancer who have been dealing with for 12 years.... "where are your clients buying", these sorts of questions, get some leads.

Why would they suspect I would not use their service? I may use them, depends? I network with as many as I need, and then work out the ones I want to work with and continue a relationship. I have agents that text me prior to a listing now and also phone calls. Have also had agents prioritise, builders first, I have missed out on deals so it does not always go my way.

Melb years ago in a booming market competing with the locals also worked with one re agent who secured all my properties.

Syd property I purchased 2-3 years ago, contracts are different to WA, once deposit taken by a buyer they have first option to secure property, I ended up phoning the agent wanting this particular property as it had g/flat, offered full price, other offer was torn up.

It can get dirty, I had one agent ready to cancel a contract in Perth, it was a development site as the buyer was technically late with finance clause a couple of days I think?? and prepared to offer the property to me if I wanted it. Lots of stuff happens, some good some not so good.

 

[Tonibell]

I think people are generally cautious because of all the vested interest in property. There are always calls of boom, get in quick, don't miss out etc.

Most of the commentators have an interest one way or another - so I think it pays to be skeptical and conservative. At some point things become undeniable but until then there are lots of views.

 

[MTR]

I think people are generally cautious because of all the vested interest in property. There are always calls of boom, get in quick, don't miss out etc.

Most of the commentators have an interest one way or another - so I think it pays to be skeptical and conservative. At some point things become undeniable but until then there are lots of views.

Syd (West), Perth been rising for around 2 years, that is the point, now the boat has sailed for these areas. I find it interesting how many jump in when they feel comfortable, however its when the market peaks, where risk of losing money is very high, see it happen all the time.