Developing At The Anchorage Estate, Rockingham

Dear All,

1. While I believe that the Rockingham and Shoalwater suburbs will continue to do well over the next few years, I find that adopting the same "Buy-and-Build" property development/investing at the Anchorage Estate, ( which actually cover parts of both the the Rockingham and Shoalwater Suburbs), after its recent Stage 15 Land Release, is no longer as profitable as it used to be, as compared to 2 years ago.

2. This is due to the fast-growing land price in the Anchorage Estate and recent building costs increases,

3. Personally, I have decided to stop buying more vacant lands directly from Australand to build houses for sale at the Anchorage Estate wef from May 2005 onwards, having invested in properties there.

4. I will however, continue to still stay invested in both the Anchorage Estate and in the Rockingham suburb till Jan 2007, by holding on to some of my existing properties or/and trading in the rehouses houses in the secondary market there.

5. I wonder whether ehat the other Perth members will say regarding my present thinking. This is for the purpose of public discussion investing in the Anchorage Estate, covering the Rockingham and Shoalwater suburbs?


regards
Kenneth KOH
 
Hi Kenneth,

surprised to hear your change of heart here. Myself, friends and family bought up in the last stage and it still looks to me like one of the better buy and build options along that coastal strip. It's hard to go wrong with anywhere from Baldivis to Mandurah but The Anchorage seems to get that extra $40k or so in the resale value. Given that the estate is only 1 or 2 small stages from completion I expect the scarcity value to take it higher.

I see some of the blocks being on sold at about $180k which seems a bit full on though.
 
Dear Ausprop,

1. There is no change of heart on my part with respect to investing in the Anchorage Estate in Rockingham. Beside owning 2 properties there since 2003, I am presently still building 2 more houses there this year.

2. However, when I start to work out the figures to further develop more new houses in the Anchorage Estate with the Stage 15 land prices and the prevailing house building costs, the returns are no longer as good as before.

3. The real costs of developing a house in the Anchorage Estate is likely to amount to about A$332,000 while the newly completed properties are presently realistically selling at A$355,000-A$365,000 price range in today's market conditions.

4. Thus, to achieve the usual 20% developer's profit margin, the new houses to be developed, will need to be sold at about A$400,000 in 2006.

5. While this targetted sale price for newly completed houses may still be achieveable towards the end of 2006 in Rockingham, there are now more options for potential buyers paying such house price range, like buying into other suburbs closer to the Perth CBD, like Hamilton Hill Spearwood etc or at the Secret Harbour coastal suburb, with golf club and new marina facilities to be built there in the near future.

6. We will also need to monitor and know how exactly the new highrise apartments at the Rockingham Beach area will perform in the near future when they are fully completed before we can know for sure whether the new houses in the Anchorage Estate will sell as fast and as well as before at the A$400,000 price range in 2006.


regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
As has been hinted at by reiwa and some of the bigger builders, you are now starting to approach affordability limits with these prices.
Wages are not climbing and with construction costs rising monthly as well as land prices increasing, its getting to the point where prospective purchasers are getting priced out of the market.
They will have to stay on the rental roundabout.

Building tradesmen are having a field day, charging what they like and holding builders to ransom, turning up when they feel like it and doing shoddy work ( and then not coming back to rectify the second rate work )

I have just recently completed building with the same builder I used 2 yrs ago, and the difference in construction time and quality of workmanship was staggering !

I had to deal with three construction supervisors during the construction saga ( not sure if they had nervous breakdowns, died, or were poached by another builder ) and I have concluded from this, that now is not the time to be building, not till the market cools down a little.

kp
 
KPH,

I certainly agree with you with respect to the Perth property market, given last Saturday's news headlines in the West Australian Newspapers.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
I have heard that the next release of land in a few weeks time will be from $155k and the final one at the end of the year will be $200k plus. Anyone who bought land or houses back when the land was sold for $70k or so has done very nicely!
 
Member

Hi there

Given that the next releases of the Anchorage are to be in that $155,000 to $175,000 price range does anyone think it is still worth the investment? My understanding is that at least 250 people are chasing the last 60 blocks (not counting the release of number 18 which will be packaged) so surely by the end of the year they would still be a good buy? Clearly for anyone that got in early they are streets ahead but given that already the few 4 bedroom homes for sale on the estate appear to be around $360,000 maybe those homes could be worth as much as $400,000 early 2006 - is that pheasible?
 
Dear All,

1. At the Australand's Property Luanches Exposition held in Singapore today, the Stage 16 Land Realease which will be officially released tommorrow morning in Perth, the available price list shows that the better located standard 500/522 m2 or larger size are being priced from A$158,000 to A$178,000 per lot while the cottage size land blocks of about 446/464 m2 are being priced at A$135,000-A$140,000 per lot.

2. The land prices are much more expensive than Stage 15 Land Release and all its preceding Land Release Stages.

3. Consequently, with local house construction and building costs still on the increase at a rate of about 1% per month, buying a vacant land and building a house on it is no longer as profitable as before. This only serve to confirm my earlier assessment.

4. For your kind update, please

5. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
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sparky23 said:
Hi there

Clearly for anyone that got in early they are streets ahead but given that already the few 4 bedroom homes for sale on the estate appear to be around $360,000 maybe those homes could be worth as much as $400,000 early 2006 - is that pheasible?
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Dear Sparky23,

1. Personally, I have no doubt that the quality 4-bedroom house sitting on a standard size land plot, is likely to reach the $400,000 sale price range in 2006-2007 time frame, given Australians' present love with beachfront houses/coastal suburbs investments and "scarcity" of available vacant lands in the Anchorage Estate.

2. However, at this A$400,000 thereabout purchase price range, the buyers would then have many other competing options to consider, beside this option of investing to purchase a second-hand 4-bedroom house at the Anchorage Estate at this high price range.

3. Hence, my concerns about the continued feasibility about developing at the Anchorage Estate.

4. For your kind update, please

5. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
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Member

Hi Kenneth

Thank you for your response. I am just wondering given that the difference in price of the blocks could be as much as $40,000 would it be as well to purchase the lower priced blocks as down the track would there really be as much as $40,000 difference in the value of the same 4 bed house on a more expensive block? Also with the land values I live in NSW near the Shell Cove estate where 450m blocks range fron $250,000 to $300,000 so there could still be a fair amount of room for the land prices to grow - would $200,00 be realistic by December 2006 for this release of Anchorage blocks?

I am also wondering which builders offer the best value for money & can offer the shortest building times. I understand Metrostyle offer a 4 bed home completely finished at around $160,000 is that a good price or can we do better? Also would you recommend buying & holding land until December 2006 or would it be more profitable to build on it before seling?

Also I have heard that there are great prospects over the next 5years for Port Kennedy would you agree?

Sparky
 
sparky23 said:
Hi Kenneth

Thank you for your response.

I am just wondering given that the difference in price of the blocks could be as much as $40,000 would it be as well to purchase the lower priced blocks as down the track would there really be as much as $40,000 difference in the value of the same 4 bed house on a more expensive block?

Also with the land values I live in NSW near the Shell Cove estate where 450m blocks range fron $250,000 to $300,000 so there could still be a fair amount of room for the land prices to grow - would $200,00 be realistic by December 2006 for this release of Anchorage blocks?

I am also wondering which builders offer the best value for money & can offer the shortest building times. I understand Metrostyle offer a 4 bed home completely finished at around $160,000 is that a good price or can we do better? Also would you recommend buying & holding land until December 2006 or would it be more profitable to build on it before seling?

Sparky
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Dear Sparky23,

1. In a certain way I can agree with your line of thinking as my second vacant land plot (496m2) which costs me only A$72,000 in April 2003, was given the same valuation land price at A$150,000 during its last bank valuation exercise conducted in Feb 2005 period, as my first vacant land plot, which was bigger in size (525 m2) and which costs me slightly more at A$75,500, way back in April 2003.

2. Having said this, there was however some variation in the initial land value/prices given by the valuers in Janaury 2004, of about A$5,000 difference between the smaller and bigger land lots, though the difference in their initial purchase price varies by only some A$3,500.

3. I do not think that we can effectively draw any valid conclusion by comparing the present land prices with that of your Shell Cove Estate in NSW. They are, in fact very different markets, at different stages and levels of development and with different market conditions prevailing presently.

4. Will the land prices in the Anchorage Estate reach A$200,000 in December 2006? I think it is likely to do so. From what I know, the present asking price for a standard size with non-lakefront view vacant land lot on resale in the Anchorage Estate is between A$175,000 -A$185,000 price range already, though the market value is about A$150,000-A$155,000 as shown in some bank valuation exercise. I also know that under the land and house package marketed by Australand under Stage 18, the small cottage land lots with lake front view has an in-built price of about A$185,000-A$210,000 price range, based on today's townhouse construction building costs estimates. Consequently, I think that Australand may further increase its land selling price under its last Stage 17 Land Release exercise further towards the end of this year by another A$10,000-A$15,000 per standard land lot, as a result of "scarcity" factor i.e as there is no more vacant land left available in its Anchorage Estate for sale in the near future.

5. As to the builder, provided you have negotiated well on the building contract with Metrostyle, I think its pricing and quality of work are highly competitive, as I am presently using them to build my third and fourth houses at the Anchorage Estate. My first house was built by Don Russell Homes Pty Ltd and my second house was built by Dale Alcock Homes Pty Ltd.

6. Work quality wise, all these 3 builders are good and highly reputable in the local Perth market;- between Don Russell Homes and Dale Alcock Homes builders, I have better value and returns for my monies, when building with Dale Alcock Homes Pty Ltd, all other things being equal, having built with these 2 builders myself in the past.

7. Between Dale Alcock Homes and Metrostyle Homes Builders, because I now have a private consultant to design my own houses first and then negotiate with Metrostyles builders for a better and cost-effective building contract for its house construction, I cannot say for sure if we were to compare on a "apple-to-apple" basis, though at the same time, I have no hesitation to continue using Metrostyle Builders again if it is so recommended to me by my private consultant.

8. Beside work quality and price-compeittiveness, we also take into considerations the existing workloads of the various builders and decide who is likely to give us the shortest building time to complete the house construction, cost-effectively to our own satisfaction and expectations.

9. You will need to work our your own figures and desired profit margins as well as tp consider the prevailing market conditions and risks involved and then decide for yourself whether you are going to on-sell the house under construction or to sell the house only upon its completion.

10. To me, it is simply a risk vis-a-vis-the level of profit margin that you want to make from your own investment, depending on your present circumstances, holding power and personality. Only you will know and can decide for yourself.

11. These are some of my own personal thoughts which I will like to share with you, for your own considerations,please.

12. Please do your own due diligence and research on the prevailing market conditions before making your onw investment decision.

13. Wishing you a "Happy and a Profitable" Investing Experience at the Anchorage Estate, should you choose to invest there in the immediate future.

14. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
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Member

Hi Kenneth

I just wanted to say thank you for taking the trouble to provide such an excellent response to my questions. This forum is such a great place to look for guidance from people such as yourself. I realise that Shell Cove is a different market but it does demonstrate that as values increase in Western Australia land could easily reach $250,000 & more for an average size block as in Shell Cove. People will still pay these prices in 'exclusive' estates near the beaches. I undertand the official release of stage 16 will be on Saturday but hopefully on Thursday I should find out whether I have been successful.

If anyone attends the Anchorage sale on Saturday at Australand I would love to hear how it all goes.

Sparky
 
sparky23 said:
... I realise that Shell Cove is a different market but it does demonstrate that as values increase in Western Australia land could easily reach $250,000 & more for an average size block as in Shell Cove. People will still pay these prices in 'exclusive' estates near the beaches. I undertand the official release of stage 16 will be on Saturday but hopefully on Thursday I should find out whether I have been successful.

Sparky
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Dear Sparky23,

1. What you said above is true. Just look at what is happening at Mindarie coastal suburb now, whereby its beachfront land are even more expensive than at A$250,000 as you quoted for Shell Cove.

2. Does land price in Rockingham has the potential to rise to A$250,000 in the near future? I should think so once the WA govt has completed developing its South-Western Growth Corridor, south of Perth... Just look at Joondalup City in the Northern Growth Corridor and I guess you can imagine what the future Rockingham City can be like, if not better then.

3. The beachfront land to the south of Rockingham at the coastal suburb of Secret Harbour ( as well as Mandurah regional) is already beginning to command such a premium price.

4. So, I am quite optmistic the land prices in Rockingham will do in the near future, though it may take slightly more time than the Secret Habour and the Mandurah regional coastal suburbs, as they are located not directly at the beachfront area.

5. For your kind update,please.

6. Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
Having already invested in the Anchorage myself I would not do so again for 2 reasons.

Firstly the cost of land is a little high for my liking and secondly because I want the live-in factor to take precedence over any further investing.

What I mean by that is simply that with the much higher land prices it is more likely you will see them sold to people actually wanting to use the land to build their PPOR.

There is already a very high proportion of investor ownership and I would hate the new jewel suburb of rockingham to become known as the rental capital of the south-west.

If the last 2 stages sold out to famiies wanting to live there I would be over the moon.

This would help maintain property values, rental yields etc etc.

<KS>
 
I think $200,000 is a given considering the developer has already said there will be no lots available under that price in the final release. If you can pick something up in the next release for around the $150k it should prove to be a good investment.

the release date is confuing - I am now told it will be the 6th August.

as far as considering building one, if you take $155k for the land, say $160k for building and $10k for interest = $325k. current replacement value is say $360k, so you arent making the 20% that is typical along the coast.... but you do know that you will pick up at least $45k on the land, the building inflation will be around $10k by the time it is built (even more when the new environemtn laws apply), plus cap growth of say 15% = $360+$45+$10+say $50 = approx $450k. $125k would be a reasonable return for a low risk no headache deal, even if it only eventuated at say $80k it would still be alright.

having said that, I share KS's philosophy.... I always like to see decent owner occupier element.
 
I am sorry I have little different opinion. If the money is so easy to make (as you claim - $125k for one year on your $325k investment), it would be much easiler for people stop working to do this. The way you calcuated I think is based on previous situation where land was very cheap and building cost was lower. However, you got to understand now the land cost is about 3 times as in 2003, building cost is about 50% higher than it was in 2003. You simply add all together and then PLUS 20% --- I do not think it is the case. You did not take into account any affordability and market conditions into account. You may just refer to some of the house sold locally. The price could vary significantly in one area. I met an investsor who bought, built and sold in Anchroage, he did not make as much as you assumed. He told me why he left that area --- simply too dear for land.
 
I have to agree with you ibeginner

You would be looking at much more than $10,000 in interest alone when it is currently taking 18 months to build.


Boo
 
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Ausprop said:
I see some of the blocks being on sold at about $180k which seems a bit full on though.
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Dear Ausprop,

1. I am certainly interested in knowing the exact details for these A$180K land sale transactions, specifically. Can you please provide us, the specific details as to the land lot number, land size, transaction price and transaction date etc.

2. Hopefully, I can use your data to input to the bank valuers so that a higher land value can be achieved, on the basis of these comparable sale date provided.

3. Presently, my land are being bank-valued for about A$150K- A$155K price range only;- though I know that the present asking price in the resale market is about A$175K-A$185K.

4. Looking forward to your data contributions soon,please.

5.Thank you.

regards,
Kenneth KOH
 
Hi Kenneth - from a valuers view point and recorded transactions I would concur with around $155k to $160k. the most recent data I have is

17 OSPREY VSTA ROCKINGHAM ROCK 153,000 17/05/05 511 M
9 CORVUS PL ROCKINGHAM ROCKING 150,000 18/01/05 424 M
12 APACHE BVD ROCKINGHAM ROCKI 150,000 15/03/05 462 M

$180k was possibly on the upside and based on the loose assumption that a block I saw for around $189k had sold reasonably quickly... time will tell what it's actual sale price was.

As for everyone doing it - well you can only do so many projects. 10% is certainly a minimum at current prices. Building time frames comes down to selection of builder. If you signed up with virtually any of the major builders you could be in for an up to 2 year wait I agree, so it is not for everybody... then again what is? Note that my calculations were based on todays land value of $155k, todays building price and todays end price.

Doing house and land virtually anywhere along the coastal strip will show 10% to 20%. Healthy profits can be seen anywhere from Meadow Springs to Baldivis; I dont think that is any great surprise for anyone that has been looking there. I have shown friends these opportunities and you can always find a reason to justify not doing it. One guy I was encouraging to look at it said "if that house there sold for more than $320k I will sign up now" So we called the agent - "yes we just sold it for $335k". Think he signed up??... no.
 
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