Does Brisbane still stack up?

[Azazel]

I do think you are correct regarding population growth, it has slowed significantly over the last 4-5 years and will need to pick up for a genuine price spike to occur.
Whether this can happen in the current economic environment remains to be seen. The substantial price difference between Brisbane and Sydney will draw people north as it always has when the opportunity to live debt free with cash in the bank is a reality. Population migration is an employment multiplier provided the new comers are skilled and are cashed up, jobs are created in many areas by the migration of people, this is despite unemployment being above 6%, it also was in 2003. I am not suggesting thats whats about to happen but the price differental has reached a point where something must give IMO.

Yeah, I'm not sure what will do it, but it will turn the corner eventually. You could be right, interstate migration could help increase jobs too.
If the lending restrictions (current or potentially added restrictions if they don't see the result they're looking for) slow markets in Sydney, it will probably do the same in other areas. The dollar going down could help QLD in general. If the price/demand of some resources went up at the same time, I guess all of the tax $$$ tend to funnel back to the SE for most of the infrastructure spending. Mining, tourism, infrastructure, government jobs, retail. Maybe in that order.

"While the fall in resources sector capital expenditure is a big drag on the State economy, Queensland has benefited from a surge in residential dwelling investment, a good rate of consumption growth, and a big increase in investment by the State and local governments in March quarter."
Residential investment is good, but it should be the other way around.

 

[Azazel]

Yes , isn't it great . And it's only just beginning
Cliff

I think it's great if you have properties in areas that have gone up.
Just beginning - where were you at the end of 2013?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...s-housing-market/story-fnihsrf2-1226762129823
And did you sleep through 2014?

 

[Rixter]

Yes , isn't it great . And it's only just beginning

Cliff

Only just beginning.... again.
I knew we bought there, the cycle before last, for a reason.

 

[see_change]

I think it's great if you have properties in areas that have gone up.
Just beginning - where were you at the end of 2013?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...s-housing-market/story-fnihsrf2-1226762129823
And did you sleep through 2014?

We bought in Tenerife , manly and Wynnum ( one on the water and one 50 m back ) in late 2013 . Up around 8-10 % . Not spectacular , but we knew it was early and we could take our time to find nice properties in good locations .

2014 .... Sleep ... Maybe but it was a nice day dream in 2014 as we watched our Sydney properties go up .

The last one we bought ( at the same time as the Brisbane ones) has gone up around 50 % in the same time .

The 2770 brigade did even better over the same time frame .

Cliff

 

[Azazel]

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[Angel]

I got a newsletter today from my Union informing us that the State Govt has reversed Newman's IR laws, so job security for at least the Public Sector is back. That will ease some concerns about employment and may well have a flow on effect into the supporting services such as hospitality and of course lending.

The state economy has been bad for ages and then ground to a thud when the entire PS was afraid to borrow $$$ for anything (housing) lest we all lose our jobs.

 

[see_change]

I got a newsletter today from my Union informing us that the State Govt has reversed Newman's IR laws, so job security for at least the Public Sector is back. That will ease some concerns about employment and may well have a flow on effect into the supporting services such as hospitality and of course lending.

The state economy has been bad for ages and then ground to a thud when the entire PS was afraid to borrow $$$ for anything (housing) lest we all lose our jobs.

Ok angel . Time to rush out and buy a few IP's before all us evil southerners buy up your homes .

We may not be able to beat you at origin , well not often , but we can sure buy up the damn state and then incorporate it in to NSW ....



Cliff

 

[jerrybee]

I got a newsletter today from my Union informing us that the State Govt has reversed Newman's IR laws, so job security for at least the Public Sector is back. That will ease some concerns about employment and may well have a flow on effect into the supporting services such as hospitality and of course lending.

The state economy has been bad for ages and then ground to a thud when the entire PS was afraid to borrow $$$ for anything (housing) lest we all lose our jobs.

Excellent news.

 

[Bran]

I got a newsletter today from my Union informing us that the State Govt has reversed Newman's IR laws, so job security for at least the Public Sector is back. That will ease some concerns about employment and may well have a flow on effect into the supporting services such as hospitality and of course lending.

The state economy has been bad for ages and then ground to a thud when the entire PS was afraid to borrow $$$ for anything (housing) lest we all lose our jobs.

I got a letter saying essentially, "we overpaid you about 1000 dollars n 2012 according to our calculations. And we want you to pay it back, next pay".

I'll pay, but then I'll claim the $1000 a week overtime I don't currently claim out of good will to the government.

Stupid way to run any sort of enterprise.

 

[Coxy89]

Since you had 3 posts, I assumed the reason you missed that link from 2 pages ago was because you are a new SS member.



As above, for the populations, you don't think 175 for current Brisbane compares with 445 for Sydney in 2010?

Fair enough.

Where I'm coming from is that auction clearance rates aren't a very good indicator of the market in Brisbane because of how few auction listings there are in Brisbane compared to the amount of listings.

Using some figures from

http://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/0...but-new-listings-remain-lower-than-last-year/

http://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/0...rthday-weekend-pushes-auction-volumes-higher/

Sydney Auctions - 1087 Sydney Listings - 7280 - Percentage Auctions - 14.9%
Melbourn Auctions - 1149 Melbourne Listings - 7931 - Percentage Auctions - 14.4%
Brisbane Auctions - 137 Brisbane Listings - 4153 - Percentage Auctions - 3.2%

For Sydney and Melbourne the amount of auctions is much more representative of the market with nearly 15% of listings going to auction. Compare that to just over 3% in Brisbane its hard to see how any reliable information can be drawn from that statistic.

There has been growth in a lot of the inner city suburbs, we've just upgraded our PPOR to get in closer to the CBD and it has been an absolute battle. 10-15 groups through each open home and getting into multiple offer situations extremely common. Compared to when we bought our IP in 2012, 5 groups through across 3 open homes and ours being the only offer on the table. The feel on the ground hasn't been that anything is slowing down.

The construction company I work for is bringing a lot of people in from interstate to make up resource shortages on jobs. In the last year we've gone from a workbook of $300m to now just over $1b, the majority of it is residential construction and they're forcasting to tender close to another $1b worth of work in the next 6 months. I think we will see a lot more jobs created in the sector because of the volume of work coming up in Brisbane. Some of these will be taken up by the people coming off of the mines as they move into their production phase rather than construction but I still think there will be a shortage a skilled workers in the area. This combined with the lifestyle and cheaper housing will make QLD attractive to people shut out of the Sydney/Melbourne markets.

Thats my reason for being optimistic towards Brisbane anyway.

 

[Andrew_A]

Interesting thread

Just because I can add some value without too much opinion. Likely there are some pretty graphs to back up a bit of this anecdotal reporting.

> Upswing started from January 2013 in Brisbane, not much % wise in some areas and quite large in others. Been a challenge to buy well since that time due to multiple offers and less quality etc, however rarely if ever Sydney like, which is something to be grateful for.

> Sydney v Brisbane ratio surely has to narrow, been discussed on this thread, most likely held in check to some extent by..

> QLD economy is blah.. ex finance and related sectors, you might be able to buy half a Brisbane suburb when you sell in Sydney but might not move to Brisbane if you don't have a job ready for you.

> Mining and related services have been crushed, can note this more so in WA which is more leveraged to this consideration, really translating to less demand for housing from this sector.. however compensating for this

> Expats earning foreign currency are loving the lower AUD, though are getting nervous about recent credit tightening focusing on them

> Also seems to be a good time to be looking for commercial in terms of ability to bargain and pick and choose, perhaps this is related to the mining point.

> Rental market the slowest it's been in a while, tough finding quality tenants and rents are stable to down on 12 months ago.

> On average we are buying housing at 4.5 and strata at 5% gr yields, adding 0.5%-1% on that for outside of Brisbane City Council (Logan and Western Sydney equivalents etc)

Mostly for Brisbane City Council, market within markets as always but just some general reporting.

 

[JDP1]

Interesting thread
...

> Upswing started from January 2013 in Brisbane, not much % wise in some areas and quite large in others. Been a challenge to buy well since that time due to multiple offers and less quality etc, however rarely if ever Sydney like, which is something to be grateful for.

....

Not according to the abbot-hockey show...
According to them, you should be grateful to be in Sydney and the poor buggers elsewhere are just that..

 

[ZOMG]

Not according to the abbot-hockey show...
According to them, you should be grateful to be in Sydney and the poor buggers elsewhere are just that..

According to Hockey all you need is a well paying job. Easy

http://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...buyers-get-a-job/story-fnu2pwk8-1227389574292

 

[Angel]

I got a letter saying essentially, "we overpaid you about 1000 dollars n 2012 according to our calculations. And we want you to pay it back, next pay".

I'll pay, but then I'll claim the $1000 a week overtime I don't currently claim out of good will to the government.

Stupid way to run any sort of enterprise.

You're in Health, right?

 

[C-mac]

I saw that piece from Hockey, I dont like the man at all but I dont think that was a gaffe as such, unlike his 'poor people dont drive cars' gaffe.

I think by 'good' job/income he was just meaning within the context of the target price range someone wants to buy at. I.e. buy at a range you can afford, based on your income level. Sure, in places like Sydney this is hard to do, as EVERYONE wants to live in a nice/affluent postcode. But like anywhere and anything, you have to start small and work your way up. FHB's in their 20's buying a $1million sydney apartment and then complaining about affordability; such an instance would strike me as a bit dumb!

 

[Angel]

Ok angel . Time to rush out and buy a few IP's before all us evil southerners buy up your homes .

We may not be able to beat you at origin , well not often , but we can sure buy up the damn state and then incorporate it in to NSW ....



Cliff

Come on up.
Could your state govts be any worse than ours? Every other time Mr and Ms Average were priced out of Sydney, my home doubled in value within two years. Now I've got three of the little darlings - and no more equity to spend - I'm hanging out for that glorious day when Mr Angel and I tell our respective bosses where they can shove all their psycho expectations they keep heaping on us every time someone in Canberra or George St goes on the telly.

 

[see_change]

Come on up.
Could your state govts be any worse than ours? Every other time Mr and Ms Average were priced out of Sydney, my home doubled in value within two years. Now I've got three of the little darlings - and no more equity to spend - I'm hanging out for that glorious day when Mr Angel and I tell our respective bosses where they can shove all their psycho expectations they keep heaping on us every time someone in Canberra or George St goes on the telly.

We've already been though SWMBO is coming up again this weekend along with DOSC to check out some more .

We currently have a decent State Government after over a decade of Carr and Co who have to have been one of the worst Labor Government's going around for a while.

Cliff

 

[see_change]

Had an interesting discussion with a fellow worker who is a Chinese born Australian .

He has many friends still in China , some of whom have invested in Australia .

One is coming over to look at places to buy .

Guess where ?

Brisbane

Cliff

 

[jerrybee]

Had an interesting discussion with a fellow worker who is a Chinese born Australian .

He has many friends still in China , some of whom have invested in Australia .

One is coming over to look at places to buy .

Guess where ?

Brisbane

Cliff

Can you create a hype thread? I think it's time

 

[see_change]

Can you create a hype thread? I think it's time

I haven't finished buying yet

Cliff