So for your first point, do you agree with these reasons, and can you list them?
Does Brisbane still stack up?
- Thread starter Green Grass
- Start date
So for your first point, do you agree with these reasons, and can you list them?
Do you have the 'numbers' for the 2 or 3 years prior to the last boom in Bris ? (the one that finished in 2003/4). Are there are any similarities or differences between then & now ?
Do you feel the numbers will preempt the upswing ? or are the numbers always going to be a lagging indicator ?
Are there any leading indicators that you're aware of ?
Have been trying to buy into this area - what in your opinion do you think they'll take vs your opinion on value. originally from brissie, but Living in Sydney currently and finding it hard to secure a place as they are going before we can get up to see them. Cant fly up for them all obviously
would appreciate your feedback/help
thanks
I guess I would have the same access to them as anyone from free resources, unless someone has it from a more reliable paid resource?
Moving to Brisbane in 2004, don't have anecdotal from before this time.
Same situation here, IP is a bit easier if you're flexible on suburb, but difficult when you're trying to get a potential PPOR in a particular suburb.
Actually , not interested in getting into a debate over underlying reasons why I think an area will move , outside Brisbane follows Sydney ( it does ) and I can buy what I think are very well priced IP's in Brisbane .
We have a difference in approach . You are looking for fundamental reasons why an area will move . What I'm doing is looking at how the crowd react to their perception of the fundamentals and how their behaviour changes .
For me ther are three crowds .
Somersoft - leading indicator
The " investment community ' reflected by industry publications , API , Michael Yardley , John Lindemann and all the other experts ( when they start talking up an area , it's not to late to buy
And The mass media . Do your DD carefully to make sure the horse hasn't bolted
Cliff
It's not a debate, you said "First . there are reasons why so many people are saying it ."
You can either list them or not, pretty black and white.
When we made our first Brisbane purchase about 18 months ago, we explained it in the quote below. There has been reasonable growth in the last 18 months on that property - but the rationale seems even greater today.
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=94336&highlight=Brisbane+North+Purchase
In terms of the search it came down to the differential costs beween Brisbane and the other capital cities. Where it "should" be about 10-15% behind Sydney (based on salaries, history etc) it seems to be about 40% behind for both buying and renting. The cost difference between inner and outer suburbs also does not seem to be as great in Brisbane - so that steered us towards the inner suburbs.
Give me a call if you like Snoopy. Happy to help out if I can, as I work in this area/market
Gus
Probably perfect timing for that area 18 months ago, well done.
There has been significant growth in most inner North/Northwest suburbs.
Still some good buys if you know what you're looking for.
This is my thinking too. So to me, the real question is "Will capital city differentials remain roughy the same for the foreseeable future?", which I questioned in this thread:
http://somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=108888
I don't know if it should be that close to Sydney, but it's not going to close the gap more until there are more jobs and population growth.
Or those crazy , unrealistic southern investors drive prices beyond what they should be .
Reminds me of tassie in 2002 / 3 . Why buy in tassie when it's shrinking ? Didn't stop prices doubling , the same as everywhere else .
Cliff
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I do think you are correct regarding population growth, it has slowed significantly over the last 4-5 years and will need to pick up for a genuine price spike to occur.
Whether this can happen in the current economic environment remains to be seen. The substantial price difference between Brisbane and Sydney will draw people north as it always has when the opportunity to live debt free with cash in the bank is a reality. Population migration is an employment multiplier provided the new comers are skilled and are cashed up, jobs are created in many areas by the migration of people, this is despite unemployment being above 6%, it also was in 2003. I am not suggesting thats whats about to happen but the price differental has reached a point where something must give IMO.
I can see where you are coming from regarding auction rates but I think you are not appreciating the local psyche that auctions are something to be cautious of and only for expensive properties etc. I could be wrong but bet many of the people choosing to sell by this method are owners previously from Melbourne, or Sydney.
Agree. And maybe it's not Brisbane that "gives". Perhaps it's Sydney that crashes to bring the differential back to where it was. But IMO it's more likely Brisbane goes up to close the gap. Or maybe it's a bit of both, who knows? But I agree...something has to give.
That's already happened in some areas.
