Drugs and Prostitution vital to the economy

also what are your thoughts on the growth of the US economy to 2024 vs Australian growth, are we really that economically incompetent? This table doesn't suggest a rosy future for us here
 
Ausprop said:
also what are your thoughts on the growth of the US economy to 2024 vs Australian growth, are we really that economically incompetent? This table doesn't suggest a rosy future for us here
Click to expand...

Good question - very difficult to predict out that far between the US and Aus. Both very mature economies that will need to battle against adverse demographic shifts.

Growth factors for the decade ahead will largely depend on how some challenges are managed: adverse structural shifts, international changes and less 'luck' - we may not have the biggest commodity boom again this decade.

US have their own set of challenges too - you can add fiscal issues to their plate.

What table are you talking about btw? In terms of GDP tables, i think Australia's slowly climbed since 07-08 from about 16th to 13th. Quite an achievement to be that high on the list - especially for a country with a population that pales in comparison the the giants on the list. Hence i'm not so sure about Australia being economically incompetent at all.
 
tropic said:
LOL.

If you include illegal gambling, China growth would be over 10%.
We should include illegal horse bets and two up for our forecast.:p
Click to expand...

Haha i think this would be true! The amount of money that'd churn through their casinos (and ours!) is amazing.
 
Miami's economy was single handedly lifted by the cocaine trade in the 70s and 80s as most of the south american imports to the entire US went through Miami. Prior to the Cocaine influx in the US Miami was just a sleepy small seaside town. So yes illegal activity can massively influence economic growth in a given area, even country
 
=Redom;1256462
What table are you talking about btw? In terms of GDP tables, i think Australia's slowly climbed since 07-08 from about 16th to 13th. Quite an achievement to be that high on the list - especially for a country with a population that pales in comparison the the giants on the list. Hence i'm not so sure about Australia being economically incompetent at all.
Click to expand...

idiot - I searched further to find the table and then made reference to it! sorry I will find it hang on
 
Ausprop said:
ok so here it is - look at GDP billow out for the US in 2024. Is this typical one eyedness from Stateside or are we really losing the race against the US (amongst others)

I agree what we have is a good achievement but there is no need to go backwards.

http://www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-2015/
Click to expand...

Surprised by Korea's growth and acceleration - they are also a developed middle income economy like Australia and have similar performance. I guess their place in the world may see some long run benefits.

I think over time its inevitiable global shifts will happen. As countries with large populations move up the development model and start moving up the value chain, they'll slowly climb the ranks (e.g. India, Indonesia). Australia, with its small population, cant compete with them over a long run.

But that isn't a bad thing - so long as our living standards improve over time, i don't see it as 'us going backwards'.
 
Redom said:
Ps thanks for the link!
Click to expand...

no worries.

the world looks quite different in 15 short years time hey?

also what happens in Brazil between 2019 and 2024? population spike or something?? I note our neighbour Indonesia to be far superior before too long as well. cheap Bali holidays won't endure!
 
Ausprop said:
ok so here it is - look at GDP billow out for the US in 2024. Is this typical one eyedness from Stateside or are we really losing the race against the US (amongst others)

I agree what we have is a good achievement but there is no need to go backwards.

http://www.cebr.com/reports/world-economic-league-table-2015/
Click to expand...

Interesting link, thanks. I can't comment on its accurateness without reading in more detail but since it's done by a UK based company why do you think it would be typical oneeyedness from stateside?
 
sanj said:
Interesting link, thanks. I can't comment on its accurateness without reading in more detail but since it's done by a UK based company why do you think it would be typical oneeyedness from stateside?
Click to expand...

admittedly I didn't bother to read the authors....

I am thinking that US growth is based on - quite deservedly - incredible intellectual property developments. Projecting that forward is a bit of a punt IMO
 
If drugs and prostitution are so critical to our economy, then when the hell will they be legalised and taxed?!
You can't have it both ways.... either these kinds of activities are counted in GDP, and therefore legalised and taxed etc, or you have to write them off in terms of contribution to national income... otherwise they may as well start estimating the contribution of other types of crime to economic growth too.
Sheesh :rolleyes:
 
Ausprop said:
no worries.

the world looks quite different in 15 short years time hey?

also what happens in Brazil between 2019 and 2024? population spike or something?? I note our neighbour Indonesia to be far superior before too long as well. cheap Bali holidays won't endure!
Click to expand...


Indonesia is predicted to have a population of 276 million in 2024! And in 2024 their GDP will still be behind us with 10 times the people. I'm not sure what you're talking about really, but Indonesia's GDP growth is starting from a very low base so you'd expect it to have more growth potential.

Just because they might end up with a GDP greater than ours means nothing as far as I'm concerned. It could still be a third world, poverty ridden, overpopulated place?


See ya's.
 
GDP is important because it funds military projection. If you have a massive military and a poor populace it would be remiss not to spill out onto neighbouring bountiful lands
 
Ausprop said:
GDP is important because it funds military projection. If you have a massive military and a poor populace it would be remiss not to spill out onto neighbouring bountiful lands
Click to expand...
Only to a point. It depends on what proportion of GDP goes to the military. I would expect Indonesia would have a much larger military budget than Australia, simply because it has a much larger population. That doesn't mean that they're ready to take over the world.... it might just mean that military personnel are fed, housed and equipped.
 
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