ABC News article,
Economic forecasts no better than a random walk
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-04/economic-forecasts-no-better-than-a-random-walk/4499098
"That paper found that 70 per cent of the RBA's forecasts for underlying inflation for the year ahead were close to the mark, but its predictions of economic growth were less accurate, and its unemployment rate estimates no better than a random walk."
Pretty much says what most of us would know, the forecasts are a bit suspect. Interesting that a couple of blokes took the time to do an internal analysis. Doesn't state how "close to the mark" close is? and wording is vague and wishy washy but still interesting.
Cheers
Graeme
Economic forecasts no better than a random walk
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-02-04/economic-forecasts-no-better-than-a-random-walk/4499098
"That paper found that 70 per cent of the RBA's forecasts for underlying inflation for the year ahead were close to the mark, but its predictions of economic growth were less accurate, and its unemployment rate estimates no better than a random walk."
Pretty much says what most of us would know, the forecasts are a bit suspect. Interesting that a couple of blokes took the time to do an internal analysis. Doesn't state how "close to the mark" close is? and wording is vague and wishy washy but still interesting.
Cheers
Graeme