Economics debate Keen vs Shadow

Been a while since I posted anything (read from time to time), but now things have died down a bit on what seemed to be everlasting debate on crash vs boom. I have to ask the question to SS users: does Shadow now reign supreme as the debate king after all this current growth, or do we need to wait for 10 years of stagnation as suggested by Keen (since his previous time estimate didnt go according to plan) :eek:

just a bit of fun in the question, but interesting to hear people thoughts also, if any ?
 
It is I think. Just remember people saying, if Shadow is wrong he will be mocked for eternity and if he is right well he'll be hailed as a god (or something along those lines) and pretty much the same thing for Keen.

I know a lot of people would have an opinion on this, or would prefer to forget that time maybe
 
Well, I did get one thing wrong... I didn't call 2008 as a 'Bear Trap' year and expected prices to rise in 2008 as well. Still, 2009 more than made up for that!
 
hes actually a smart bloke. Very smart. But this one time he was wrong. Big time. This is the sole reason politicians are weasels. If you attach your name firmly to any idea wrong or right...the results just arent worth it. Vindication aint worth as much as it use to be.

The guy never called anyone an idiot etc. Yet he has legions of "fans" willing to call him some very personal things. Seems strange to me.

Then again influence does come with certain resposibilities. And for a while he had some. And now he has none
 
If property prices hang up in there without falling for another couple of years then both Shadow and keen will be right with Shadow claiming it will be the slump from construction boom supply and keen from credit crunch
 
Shouldn't we at least wait until the effects of Rudds attempts to keep the boom afloat wear off before we make a decision on who wa right.

As far as I can see, Keen called it correctly with the information and situation at the time. If the the goal posts are shifted mid-kick, can he be blamed for missing.
 
Shouldn't we at least wait until the effects of Rudds attempts to keep the boom afloat wear off before we make a decision on who wa right.

As far as I can see, Keen called it correctly with the information and situation at the time. If the the goal posts are shifted mid-kick, can he be blamed for missing.

Everyone expected the Government to move the goal post as it reqiuired to stimulate the economy, Everyone except Keen it would seem and thats where he went wrong. Incorrect is incorrect whichever way you look at it.

If prices stagnate for some time then everyone that sold or didnt buy during this period will still be behind.
 
whatever123,
I'll hazard a guess you aren't one of those with a sizeable portfolio & net worth in the 7 figures.

Reason not many people respond to this thread is it's old & tired. We've all beaten that argument to death already.

You said given the info & etc at the time, Keen was right. I'll inform you now that with the SAME info, a lot of equally savvy and smart people called the opposite view. A number on this forum too.

The DIFFERENCE is that they didn't set themselves up to be 'experts'.

When you say Keen got it right, you are arguing against AN ESTABLISHED FACT.

I leave it to you to decide if you wish to continue to do so.

KY
 
One thing not many people realise is that Keen has been a major contributor to current house price rise and reduced affordability. Partly because of Keen's end of the world predictions, the government overreacted and pushed prices right up instead of stabilising the market.

Had he been less militant and extreme, we probably would only have the IR cuts and stimulus but no tripling of FHB grant, which IMO would have been a more adequate response.

I think Keen's downfall was not that he was wrong about debt levels in general but because he was blinded by ideology. His mountain hike was turned into a march against injustice in home ownership, which IMO is a show of bias and possibly a gross conflict of interest with his job as an economist.

Truong
 
As far as I can see, Keen called it correctly with the information and situation at the time. If the the goal posts are shifted mid-kick, can he be blamed for missing.

The government stimulus had already been announced when Keen made his bet with Rory. Keen also expected even greater monetary stimulus - he expected ZIRP. So Keen had all the information at the time, and the goal posts were not shifted mid kick. Keen knew about the fiscal and monetary stimulus, but he expected house prices to crash regardless. He also expected double digit unemployment, a severe recession, and he expected the RBA to cut rates to zero. Based on these beliefs he sold his own home just before house prices started to surge again.
 
The government stimulus had already been announced when Keen made his bet with Rory. Keen also expected even greater monetary stimulus - he expected ZIRP. So Keen had all the information at the time, and the goal posts were not shifted mid kick. Keen knew about the fiscal and monetary stimulus, but he expected house prices to crash regardless. He also expected double digit unemployment, a severe recession, and he expected the RBA to cut rates to zero. Based on these beliefs he sold his own home just before house prices started to surge again.

The goal posts have been shifted by huge amount since SK had is bet.
The main shift was in commodity prices and demand that more then double since then. The AU$ did double as a consequence as well.
Without that shift unemployment now would be double digit and retail sales would have crippled with a small car costing over 20K$ and a washing machine 1000$ etc. budget deficit would have been massively higher as well
 
One thing not many people realize is that Keen has been a major contributor to current house price rise and reduced afford ability. Partly because of Keen's end of the world predictions, the government overreacted and pushed prices right up instead of stabilizing the market.

Had he been less militant and extreme, we probably would only have the IR cuts and stimulus but no tripling of FHA grant, which IMO would have been a more adequate response.

I think Keen's downfall was not that he was wrong about debt levels in general but because he was blinded by ideology. His mountain hike was turned into a march against injustice in home ownership, which IMO is a show of bias and possibly a gross conflict of interest with his job as an economist.

Truong

Never thought of it like that, I have changed my mind on the bloke.

He helped people panic and sell so I got bargains :D

He helped the govt overreact with stimulus package, fhog boost and that helped the market recover a lot quicker so places just bought went through the roof.:D

So basically wealth has been transferred from the people who took his advice to those who did the complete opposite. All this time thinking he was an idiot and in reality I should be extremely grateful. :)
 
The goal posts have been shifted by huge amount since SK had is bet.
The main shift was in commodity prices and demand that more then double since then. The AU$ did double as a consequence as well.
Without that shift unemployment now would be double digit and retail sales would have crippled with a small car costing over 20K$ and a washing machine 1000$ etc. budget deficit would have been massively higher as well

Boz. What is your point? You are talking about if's and but's. Even I can predict, "IF" there was no GFC prices of commodity, AU$, property, interest rates etc would have kept rising. Eveyone with some sort of assets would be richer!

Nobody can predict the future with 100% certainty. The best you can do is have a long term view and react accordingly. If you can't have a long term view atleast have a plan B. And I think Keen missed on both those points.

Cheers,
Oracle.
 
The goal posts have been shifted by huge amount since SK had is bet.
The main shift was in commodity prices and demand that more then double since then. The AU$ did double as a consequence as well.

and, as such, they shifted on shadow as well. what's thats got to do with this discussion?

all hail the new shadow god.
 
I think you're wrong here. Can you prove this statement?

I think your missing the point here. Keen made his predictions assuming the government would not get involved to the level they did. That assumption was wrong.And that is where he made his mistake.
 
No. Shadow is saying the Keen made his predictions with full knowledge of the massive govt. stimulus and i'm saying i think that's incorrect.

Not sure what you're saying.

I think your missing the point here. Keen made his predictions assuming the government would not get involved to the level they did. That assumption was wrong.And that is where he made his mistake.
 
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