Funds & shares - Anyone heading for the exits yet

B

BV

Is anyone worried about the sharemarket atm?
I am and I think after the recent share market appreciation perhaps we should start taking out some of our gains.

A fortnight ago, Pellegrini – who rose to fame as the former Paulson & Co executive who helped the firm make more than $3 billion by masterminding a bet on the US housing crash – announced that he intended to wind down his hedge fund, PSQR Capital, and return money to investors. The fund, which gained 40 per cent in 2008 and 62 per cent last year, fell by almost 11 percent in the first seven months of this year

Anyone reading Paolo Pellegrini's farewell letter to investors hoping to find sweet, soothing words about the challenges of investing will be disappointed. Instead, the high-profile hedge fund manager has issued a grim warning of impending calamity.
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more here
Abandoning a treacherous market | Karen Maley | Commentary | Business Spectator
 
I agree with Pellegrini....the article was posted elsewhere on Friday and I commented

However, the downside he is talking about will be hard to time. It could come within 3 mths or 3 years. Large structural macro effects are very hard to time.

In the short term, China and the US had a little more positive news towards the end of the week. But economists are split fairly evenly in whether there's going to be further downside....and the markets are very jumpy on the economic data.

I sold off long term positions in May and have been trading volatility moreso since.

The market hasn't done anything since Sept last year. Suppose it depends on your time frame and reliance on dividends and use of margin loan.
 
BV said:
Is anyone worried about the sharemarket atm?
I am and I think after the recent share market appreciation perhaps we should start taking out some of our gains.



more here
Abandoning a treacherous market | Karen Maley | Commentary | Business Spectator
Click to expand...
I'm not worried,the Dow is up over night,Gold Oil are staying level,when you talk about appreciation in after tax dollar terms you can look at it both ways prior too the GFC,the ASX was just below the 7000 mark,now we are in the mid 4000 levels big difference in cv terms,but the rules are very simple in trading if you think that the price of any unit is 50%above your entry price after the ATO-Brokers take their slice then sell,i do every day or night..imho..
willair..
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67G1S620100817
 
I wouldn't be in the general market anyway but anyone who is, should be wary. I'm happy to keep my miners though.

For any traders out there: Have a look at silver. It has decoupled from gold this week. Traditionally (when they are considered monetary metals) the gold/silver ratio is <20. Lately it has been >65 but is coming down.

There could be a good reason, because JP Morgan is closing their proprietary trading desk and they are one of the VERY big short-sellers of silver. If they are squaring their positions, there will be the mother of short squeezes.

I think I am reporting fact not rumour, but if true, it is under-reported.

Edit: I just found this on GATA


Goldman said following Morgan in ending proprietary trading
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2010-09-03 19:57. Section: Daily Dispatches
Goldman Sachs Said to Be Disbanding Principal Strategies Unit

By Christine Harper and Saijel Kishan
Bloomberg News
Friday, September 3, 2010

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-03/goldman-said-to-shut-principal-...

NEW YORK -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is shutting its principal-strategies business, a group that makes bets with the firm's own capital, to comply with new U.S. rules aimed at curbing risk, two people with knowledge of the decision said.

Wall Street's most profitable investment bank plans to hold off on announcing the wind-down while the 65 to 70 members of the global unit seek new jobs, the people said, speaking anonymously because the internal discussions about the process are confidential. Some traders and support staff may get roles within the firm, while a team in Asia may raise money for a new hedge fund, the people said.

... Dispatch continues below ...
 
WinstonWolfe said:
I agree with Pellegrini....
However, the downside he is talking about will be hard to time. It could come within 3 mths or 3 years. Large structural macro effects are very hard to time.
Click to expand...

I guess we'll see it when it comes just like we did last time. :eek:

IMO there is no need to panic but we should be prepared because it is an indication that the large players who move the market could be selling large chunks of their portfolio so our market could be pulled down as well.
 
I'm currently extremely busy looking for opportunities. Have my eye on a couple at the moment. Just need to do a bit more research. No, I'm not going to tell you which companies they are.
 
I'm still accumulating, but the well is running dry after recent runs. Got a couple of positions I want to add more too, but now they've gone beyond my buy in level.
 
Worried that CBA just recorded largest profit ever?
Worried that Woolies just had another great result?

I think it should be case by case with each company you hold stocks in, if you think they are over priced maybe consider selling a few. If you think they are undervalued buy a few.

As long as the business is doing well and their isn't a sign things are going to drastically change don't get to caught up in the share price, that will always be changing.

Regards,

RH
 
Sunfish said:
Do you have a rational reason NOT to have been invested in gold, the best performing asset of the last decade?

Yea! I know. It's risky. LOL
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Seems like you guys have had some prior discussion about gold.
I have no idea about it.

To give me abit of an idea Sunfish if you was to use points to sell gold to me now. what would they be?
 
Mark Laszczuk said:
When have I ever, at any point in time, said anything (good or bad) about gold Thommo?
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Overly simplistic statements about the stock market get to me. It isn't simple and it isn't rational but gold is the simplest, most rational investment so I thought it should appeal to you.
 
steveadl said:
I'm still accumulating.
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I'm not.

I think the Oz banks and other blue chip stocks had their run so there is no point buying them now.
I figured I'll now wait till the next storm comes out of the US or the EU and will buy CBA and the others at a discount...:D

I think looking at the US government's erratic behaviour and their continuing appetite for spending its just a matter of time
 
Sunfish said:
Overly simplistic statements about the stock market get to me. It isn't simple and it isn't rational but gold is the simplest, most rational investment so I thought it should appeal to you.
Click to expand...

See what I mean Ridin-High?

Thommo, anytime anyone says anything you don't agree with, it bothers you.
 
Sunfish said:
Overly simplistic statements about the stock market get to me. It isn't simple and it isn't rational but gold is the simplest, most rational investment so I thought it should appeal to you.
Click to expand...

He, he - all this worry over the sharemarket. It is simple, it is rational - just focus on the income. To much focus on capital will send you to an early grave.

Gold, not thanks - where's the income?

As per latest Rudi's View (not because I'm a follower of this guy or any guru for that matter but I'm not good with words so I steal others who can describe my thoughts better than I can)":

"For those investors who don't feel suited to chase this share market up every time it rallies, and back down every time it corrects, this might well serve as a timely reminder of what, through ebb and tide, rain and sunshine, day and night, has proved to be the best long term investment strategy when it comes to the share market: paying attention to both earnings growth and dividends, not just to one of each."

http://www.investsmart.com.au/news/articles.asp?ArticleID=91&s_cid=newsletter:is:1148

And funny with all this doom and gloom, talk of double dip etc around, yet again I'm drowning in dividends this time of year. So boring and predictable is the income it means I have no choice but to look for something outside of the sharemarket, commodities etc to get excitement in life.

Oh well, such is life - until next reporting season and trying to find what the hell to spend the current bounty of dividends on so as to make room in the bank accounts for the next influx of dividends.:D

Have fun
 
BV said:
I'm not.

I think the Oz banks and other blue chip stocks had their run so there is no point buying them now.
I figured I'll now wait till the next storm comes out of the US or the EU and will buy CBA and the others at a discount...:D

I think looking at the US government's erratic behaviour and their continuing appetite for spending its just a matter of time
Click to expand...

their is always opportunity.

In the 2 months since i purchased wesfarmers (they own coles, bunnings) they are up 19.1% for me and have a high 7% yield on purchase price.

The PE ratio for the big 4 is still abit below their long term averages, a week ago was really good buying.

But yeah I'm sure their will be more great buying opportunitys ahead

Regards,

RH
 
austini said:
He, he - all this worry over the sharemarket. It is simple, it is rational - just focus on the income. To much focus on capital will send you to an early grave.

Gold, not thanks - where's the income?

As per latest Rudi's View (not because I'm a follower of this guy or any guru for that matter but I'm not good with words so I steal others who can describe my thoughts better than I can)":

"For those investors who don't feel suited to chase this share market up every time it rallies, and back down every time it corrects, this might well serve as a timely reminder of what, through ebb and tide, rain and sunshine, day and night, has proved to be the best long term investment strategy when it comes to the share market: paying attention to both earnings growth and dividends, not just to one of each."

http://www.investsmart.com.au/news/articles.asp?ArticleID=91&s_cid=newsletter:is:1148

And funny with all this doom and gloom, talk of double dip etc around, yet again I'm drowning in dividends this time of year. So boring and predictable is the income it means I have no choice but to look for something outside of the sharemarket, commodities etc to get excitement in life.

Oh well, such is life - until next reporting season and trying to find what the hell to spend the current bounty of dividends on so as to make room in the bank accounts for the next influx of dividends.:D

Have fun
Click to expand...

Still sniffing around i see austini :) Well done
 
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