Garrett rejects Traveston Dam

A nuclear debate is always an interesting one. I would just like to make the following points to bring the debate back to reality from a commercial perspective:

- If you advocate nuclear, you are saying you don't believe in free markets. The non-government power industry cannot build a nuclear power station without a government guarantee sitting behind it because no-one (investors or banks) is prepared to take the risk. People may like to think "government knows best" and should just build nuclear itself and there are countries where that stance is justified (eg Japan) to maintain their standard of living but in Australia we are so far from needing to do that it's just not funny. Why take the risk? Why not let the free market operate?

- The Australian power market is irrelevant on a global scale for nuclear. The Switkowski report acknowledged that traditional nuclear power stations (circa 5GW) don't have a place in the Australian power market because we don't have either the demand or transmission capacity to accomodate lumps like that. Already Australia is swimming in overnight base load capacity and power stations are having heaps of trouble maintaining operation at their minimum loads. In WA we are seeing negative overnight winter wholesale power prices (think about that for a second...) because there isn't enough load on the system and it's too expensive to switch off coal power stations overnight that haven't been designed for it if you want them to be available in the morning. Nuclear has to be kept on 24/7 - that's its key disadvantage - we need load-coincident (daytime) generation - there is far too much generation at night already. Anybody who knows anything about the Australian power industry would know this.

- Switkowski suggested smaller scale newer technology plants but failed to give any reliable evidence as to the real costs of these things, particularly when the large scale ones are already so expensive for a new build (all that concrete and steel ain't cheap!). At the very least he acknowledged new nuclear build at this scale is likely to be just as expensive as many renewables so what's the point?

There are places where nuclear is inevitable because their governments have just run out of options. We have so many options it's just not funny - Australia is one of the very last countries where nuclear power would make sense - very little load, very little of it centralised, cheap electricity prices and abundant alternative energy sources able to be rolled out in the right scale to meet market demand (and prices).

Having said all that, a philosophical ban on nuclear power and storing nuclear waste when you're exporting uranium is indefensible. It should be removed IMO as it distracts people from the real reasons nuclear can't work in Australia for a very long time... at least without that well intentioned govt intervention that this govt seems to be so fond of!

Anyway, sorry for the diversion - back on topic! Dams...
 
There are places where nuclear is inevitable because their governments have just run out of options. We have so many options it's just not funny - Australia is one of the very last countries where nuclear power would make sense - ...

Thanks. Cheers.


Anyway, sorry for the diversion - back on topic! Dams...


What are you sorry about? It is completely on topic. It is all interrelated.


See ya's.
 
HiEquity, sorry if you've already stated this elsewhere - possibly more than once - but which type of renewable / sustainable energy is most cost-effective / practical in the Australian context, in your humble opinion? Is the answer to this question likely to change within the next few years with technologies ripening?
 
HiEquity, sorry if you've already stated this elsewhere - possibly more than once - but which type of renewable / sustainable energy is most cost-effective / practical in the Australian context, in your humble opinion? Is the answer to this question likely to change within the next few years with technologies ripening?

The answer is really "a mix". In terms of raw cost, large scale wind is the cheapest fully renewable technology available for roll-out on a significant scale at the moment. It will therefore take up a very large portion of the new Federal Renewable Energy Target, notwithstanding efforts by govt to preferentially support Solar PV which, while obviously more popular, is very significantly more expensive...

As the penetration of wind farms into Oz electricity markets grows, they will be forced into less windy sites further away from transmission networks so their cost will rise eventually. They will also be forced to bear the increasing cost of ancillary services, such as balancing voltage and frequency support to accomodate their variability. All the reputable studies I have seen on this indicate these balancing costs are pretty insignificant up to the circa 20-30% penetration levels and we are an awfully long way from there ATM! Perhaps we should worry about that when it happens... :rolleyes:

In that respect, wind works very well with gas turbine plant that can economically run at low output for minimal cost (in the scheme of things), ready for when the wind dies. Less so with thermal (steam) generation like coal (or nuclear!) that typically have minimum loadings around the 60% level (nuclear 100%!). BTW there is technically nothing to stop a steam plant going lower than this on a regular basis if it was designed to do so - trouble is that all the ones we have haven't been designed to do so! Anyway, the reality is that if we want to reduce our greenhouse emissions at all, some of the least efficient brown coal (circa 60% water content! :eek:) plant in the Latrobe valley has to shut down anyway - there is no other way...

There are niche opportunities for biomass, particularly when co-firing with coal, to do it cheaper than wind but supply is of course limited (bagasse, plantation waste, salinity plantings etc).

All forms of solar are more than double (actually at least triple) the cost of wind at the moment. The cheapest form of large scale solar is known as ISCC (integrated solar combined cycle - this is more around the "double" level) - it is solar thermal heat (parabolic troughs have a circa 20year performance record) combined with combined cycle gas turbines (where you capture waste heat from a gas turbine and raise steam -> electricity with it). Adding solar heat into that mix (can be done to a coal station as well) is a more efficient use of the technology rather than building a whole thermal steam power station (turbine, power block etc) that only gets used for 30% of the time (the average availability of the solar resource - 8hours of the day). There is potential in thin film PV (challenging conventional PV at the moment) but a realistic timeframe for getting volumes up and prices down in that industry is at least 20 years, assuming further breakthroughs are made (a bold assumption!).

Wave energy costs are completely unproven at large scale - all wave technologies are at the "pre-commercial" stage unable to get finance at the moment so there are only "demonstration" projects and no good info on their actual record is available in the public domain. IMO it's safe to say that anything built for life in the ocean ain't going to be cheap - only have to know a bit about prices for marine / boating gear to work that out... and if it worked I'm sure we would have been given some evidence!

Hydro would be cheap if it was available but it is already fully utilised for Australia. Tidal would be great if Derby was next to Sydney but there is just no load where the resource is and transmission is not cheap.

Out of left field may come other technologies like geothermal (hot dry rocks) but that just has to be one of the most far fetched ideas around - the resource takes monstrous transmission investment to get to, the rocks just aren't all that hot (thermal generation (carnot cycle) efficiency is dependent on the temperature differential across the steam turbine - the hotter the more efficient) and there is no evidence that it will work at all. Indeed initial results on that front aren't very promising...

Did I miss anything?
 
Why not let the free market operate?
There is no such thing as a free market. Well maybe apart from fruit market.

Nuclear has to be kept on 24/7 - that's its key disadvantage - we need load-coincident (daytime) generation - there is far too much generation at night already.

there are plenty of things to convert to electricity, which can run at night.
desalination plants would be one of them

also nuclear can be used to cover base load, and then other source to cover peak load.

plus some nuclear can follow the load as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABWR
 
There is no such thing as a free market. Well maybe apart from fruit market.

Well the National Electricity Market (NEM) on the east coast of Australia operates as much like a free market as the grocery duopoly we have. Works very well too as it has steadily reduced the massive overhang that existed in baseload capacity when State govts had full control.

there are plenty of things to convert to electricity, which can run at night.
desalination plants would be one of them

Then why don't they do that now? Wholesale electricity is incredibly cheap right NOW overnight and yet this doesn't happen. The cost of water from a desal plant goes up exponentially if it isn't used 100% of the time - once you've built it you want it to run flat out otherwise you have to build one twice as big to get the same output from one running 50% of the time, which would obviously not be cheap... same goes for any industrial electrical load of consequence - you don't build them without running them as much as possible. Electricity is generally still only a small component of the overall cost - despite desal's energy intensity depreciation is the bigger problem.

also nuclear can be used to cover base load, and then other source to cover peak load.

So can every other technology. Everyone wants base load - why install an asset and not want to get revenue from it 100% of the time? And why install more base load power when there is so much of it already with everyone fighting over a tiny load, dropping prices through the floor? Why should nuclear get preferential access to the base load when everyone else wants it as well?

plus some nuclear can follow the load as well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABWR

Which would only increase the expense even more. If you reduce generation from the asset you need to charge a lot more for the reduced electricity you do produce to pay off the interest on the cost of all that concrete and steel...

By the way, there is nothing in that link to suggest load following is a feature of the ABWR on a daily basis of any significance - every nuclear power station is run at base load.
 
it would make sense to me for australia to provide power to the world via full service uranium enrichment. it leaves fully processed and is returned and stored. All at a hefty price of course. we could power the planet, save the environment, take control of safety standards amd have a standard of living that would put a shiekh to shame.

ok so that's the economy and the environment fixed. any other questions?
 
please help me understand , does uranium come from the ground any way, and what do they do with the stuff to make it nucllear, ? spell??
Or is it like this when its mined, obviosly they dont de-nuke the stuff, after its been used or spent!

if its burried could it leach through to the arterial basin, or water line , underground. not that its an issue as i am sure other countries have been dumping the stuff in the ocean for ever, like russia and their subs.
 
if there is nuclear there won't be anything else

Impossible with current technology for Australia's load profile. If it ever became possible it would be hugely expensive in comparison to the status quo.

burning gas/oil/coal just to get electricity is plain stupid

And yet, so cheap by comparison to nuclear! Who do you propose to pay the cost difference?

it would make sense to me for australia to provide power to the world via full service uranium enrichment. it leaves fully processed and is returned and stored. All at a hefty price of course. we could power the planet, save the environment, take control of safety standards amd have a standard of living that would put a shiekh to shame.

ok so that's the economy and the environment fixed. any other questions?

I agree Ausprop that there is an excellent opportunity for Australia to grab more of the nuclear value chain up to a point. There isn't that much we could do to improve safety standards though and while we could undertake uranium enrichment the centrifuges etc already exist overseas so it would be a tough business case... and the intellectual property involved is fairly well protected!

But IMO there is a moral obligation for us to deal with some waste at least if we are going to mine and export the source uranium.

please help me understand , does uranium come from the ground any way, and what do they do with the stuff to make it nucllear, ?

Some suggested reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reprocessing

There are good solutions available for the waste issue but they're not cheap!
 
Chris Uhlmann makes a lot of sense in this blog:

http://blogs.abc.net.au/offair/2009/11/a-big-dry-australia.html

The fact that our Prime Minister sees nothing wrong with a population of 35 million by 2050 causes me particular concern... it's a brave new world!

Economic growth and infrastructure problems are one thing but I really don't think I want to live in an overcrowded country like that. Might have to retreat to the wilds of Tasmania before then for some peace and quiet.

Still, I guess it's all good for property prices though so there is a silver (gold? :p) lining...
 
highequity, thanks for the links , i skiped through the link and i always thought i could understand most scientific stuff, but wow , its a bit to heavy for me , now i am wondering if the fbi are tracking me from pine gap, ?:confused:
 
interesting. This country could accommodate 400 million but I think about 150m would be a good level. 35m is no big deal and could fit in 1 decent sized city. Could build one on the shores of lake argyle.
 
interesting. This country could accommodate 400 million but I think about 150m would be a good level. 35m is no big deal and could fit in 1 decent sized city. Could build one on the shores of lake argyle.


Sure we could. But what levels of wealth are you talking?
We could support 400 million if everyone lived like an Ethiopian.
We could support 150 million if everyone lived like an Indonesian.

If big is great, why do we have a higher standard of living than China, 1.3 billion, India, 1 billion, Indonesia, 240 million, Brazil, 200 million, Pakistan, 180 million, Bangladesh, 155 million.

Or conversly, why is it that the countries with the highest GDP output, and higher than us, are mostly small in population, countries like Norway, the Netherlands, Austria and Canada?



We are a commodity exporting country. We don't have massive manufacturing centres that employs millions of people. The more people we try to stuff into this land, the more our natural wealth get diluted. At 400 million population we will import 75% of our food so there goes part of our export income. At 400 million, without agricultural exports, we would have to export even more rocks and dirt and gas to compensate. The whole place would be one big hole in the ground in short time, and then what happens..?? Once all the farm land is dug up, and the 400 million people are using all the water to drink and water their lawns and golf courses we'd have the great pleasure then in importing 100% of our food. You are completely nuts!

Plus, the north west of this continent will never ever support a large population. The soil is completely rubbish agriculturally, plus its in drought for 8 months of the year and flooding for the other 4 months. The Ord River scheme is a massive disaster despite what some media beat ups say. We were up there recently looking around. Half the place is currently planted to sandlewood trees as part of a tax dodgeing MIS scheme, what a joke?.. The total production to date in 40 years wouldn't have even paid for the cost of the place yet. And that's the best 12,000 hectares anyone could find up there!!



I'm surprised you have said something so ridiculous..??


See ya's.
 
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