GFC2 impact of property prices

With the growing problems in the eurozone (with Greece now paying 23% on 2yr bonds, and likely to default in mid May), and the flow on to the other PIIGS, and with world markets becoming more volatile again, what impact do you think the coming second crisis will have on Australian property prices. Bear in mind that there was stimulus money available for GFC1 (but not for GFC2), so we can't spend our way out of what is coming this time.

I expect we'll see the start of GFC2 in May/June, and this will see the property prices fall through to 2012.
 
My crystal ball is very optimistic & I believe those owning property are pretty much always in a better position with those who don't. I do have cash reserves to see me through, but if I didn't, I still wouldn't be that worried by all the naysayers.

Depressions / recessions can bring many opportunites to make money & I intend to be in that category. I believe it depends on your mindset as much as anything. Finding solutions is always easier when you believe they can be found rather than burying your head in your hands lamenting the woes of the world.

I don't believe prices here will fall by much as I believe our housing sector stronger & more balanced than those overseas. If they do, they can only go up again at some point, so it's all good.

Always interested in others' points of view on this...?

Here's to the glass being half full :)
 
With the growing problems in the eurozone (with Greece now paying 23% on 2yr bonds, and likely to default in mid May), and the flow on to the other PIIGS, and with world markets becoming more volatile again, what impact do you think the coming second crisis will have on Australian property prices. Bear in mind that there was stimulus money available for GFC1 (but not for GFC2), so we can't spend our way out of what is coming this time.

I expect we'll see the start of GFC2 in May/June, and this will see the property prices fall through to 2012.
Greece produces 1.5% of europes GDP, so what??
The issue is for any governments or banks actually holding these bonds, but i highly doubt anything to dramatic will come out of this greece thingy.
 
Would you care to explain your rational for reaching this conclusion?

Greece is due to pay a $9Beuro bond on May 19. It's finding it hard to raise money, so unless the eurozone aid comes through, they may default. Greece, Portugal,Italy have all been downgraded. The problems are starting to spread throughout Europe. Any bailout may delay the inevitable for a while.
This time there won't be billions in stimulus to hand out.
 
It's not GFC II; it's just that the first one isn't over yet.

Before congratulating yourself on dodging a bullet, it's always worth considering how many are left in the magazine.
 
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The EU won't allow Greece to falter, else the entire EU will suffer. Accordingly the IMF will undoubtedly play a key role, because the issue is far broader than Europe alone. China's largest market is Europe, so if the Euro devalues significantly against the Yuan, China will feel it hard. This has already started and I believe the IMF will rally to stop the hemorrhage but it will be up to the EU to 'fix' the problem. China simply can't afford to allow this sort of EU disintegration, nor can many other markets around the globe.

I agree that this is not a second GFC, but simply a large aftershock, of which there is sure to be more. Maybe not of the same magnitude, but more none-the-less.
 
With the growing problems in the eurozone (with Greece now paying 23% on 2yr bonds, and likely to default in mid May), and the flow on to the other PIIGS, and with world markets becoming more volatile again, what impact do you think the coming second crisis will have on Australian property prices. Bear in mind that there was stimulus money available for GFC1 (but not for GFC2), so we can't spend our way out of what is coming this time.

I expect we'll see the start of GFC2 in May/June, and this will see the property prices fall through to 2012.

i think this is a non-issue with regards to residential property prices in australia. Its cause-effect is too indirect.
 
We must remember that we are in Australia, our economy is distanced away from these countires. We are relying on China India and other developing economies. We also have a very robust economy here.

Am i worried about these countries?? No, i think September 2008 was alot worse than these issues for Austalians.
 
It's not GFC II; it's just that the first one isn't over yet.

Before congratulating yourself on dodging a bullet, it's always worth considering how many are left in the magazine.

BAH hahahaha! that's funny s*h*i*t !!! :cool:

europe farts and the world has a hissyfit.

greece i believe just got bailed out by the IMF...?
 
I think we will see GFC #2.

When? Not sure, what can we do about it? Dont know! However my take on the property front, and this is my opinion only based on what i see and forcast.

We dodged the GFC bullet via stimulus, and are in a property upswing. RBA is issuing data saying business is booming, which I agree with what I see, however when you look @ small end of the market and talking to smaller businesses they sound tougher then GFC times...

I think the time will come these guys will get pumped and rates will go too high and they will fall again.

So will prices fall? I dont belive so as there is an undersupply and for more building to occour, we will need to see prices increase and finance to ease..

I think RBA will over step the mark, us to self explode and rates to drop to bring housing affordability down to a more reasonable level.

This is an opinion only and everyone should DYOR before taking my predictions too serious.

I dont see it sunshine and lollipops for everyone, however I feel in certain pockets of the market there are some awesome gains to be had.

Along withh bloood on streets as market conditions change and business will be done in different ways and more stimulus needed.
 
Greece is due to pay a $9Beuro bond on May 19. It's finding it hard to raise money, so unless the eurozone aid comes through, they may default. Greece, Portugal,Italy have all been downgraded. The problems are starting to spread throughout Europe. Any bailout may delay the inevitable for a while.
This time there won't be billions in stimulus to hand out.

You guys need to stop just listening to the D&G presented in the media, and think things through.

Alot of recent posturing is actually game strategy on germany's behalf.
Consider:
(1) whats the movement been in the euro? give you a hint, down.
(2) who is the biggest exporter? germany
(3) what happens to exports when a currency depreciates?
(4) who is has the biggest exposure to greek debt? germany.
(5) with the additional austerity requirements what happens to the security over that debt?
(6) with the repacking of the new financing of greek debt that is about to occur, whats the source funding, whats the borrower funding?, who gets this spread? (significant part to germany).

Now im not saying things wont go pear shaped, i am just saying there are positive and negative consequences. You just dont read about the positives in the media.
 
greece will just become a riot zone and a new manufacturing hub for the EU.

mass exodus.

maybe then their sewerage system might cope a little better.
 
Alot of recent posturing is actually game strategy on germany's behalf.

I agree, they could have saved the Greeks earlier but they didn't for political reasons and for some of the other reasons you've mentioned earlier.
A lower Euro is actually good for Germany and for Europe in general because it makes them more competitive at a time when there is trouble all around....
 
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