Glenn Stephen's comments this week
- Thread starter SYDB
- Start date
Hi WW,
2012, December quarter.
Didn't you see the movie??
bye
yeah saw the movie on the advice of a Buddhist Monk. maybe I should ask him for some stock tips.
"WELL WHAT ABOUT WARREN BUFFETT."
Intrinsic_Value, you're barking up my tree.
Here's a chart of Warren Buffets company Berkshire Hathaway. The shares went from 140k to 80k and now 120k over the last two years. He lost money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Check out the Scoreboard on GuruFocus.com.
http://www.gurufocus.com/score_board.php
Look at the 5year return column (it takes in the start of the GFC), not every guru has figures but plenty do, and they aren't that great.
As for George Soros, the man is a genius, which I am not. Yet he's still blown up a few times trying to predict when the market will change.
Why is it so difficult to predict the markets, and how do the gurus do it...? Gurus use the Gordon Gekko strategy. If you remember the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gekko doesn't guess, he only bets on a sure thing.
Most gurus dont pick markets very well (Soros is one exception), what they do is pick stocks. The reason Warren Buffet is so good is not just smarts, he has direct access to every CEO, anywhere. Several studies have shown that the share portfolios of company directors are excellent performers, they know whether their companies will perform well, but they wont tell just anyone. Gurus share portfolios perform a little better because they have access to ALL company directors. But the best share portfolios of any study I have seen is U.S. senators (who have access to insights about government decissions). The word is not not insight, it's insider.
Other than insider information the markets are 99% random. They are designed that way, if you and I both have the same idea about buying a stock which is offered at $10.50, and you buy all those offered at that price, then I will have to buy at 10.51 or more. If we were both buying on inside information then we just removed two opportunities to profit from the market, so that market has become a degree more random because of our actions. If insiders keep buying that stock up, eventually the price will be so high that it no longer presents a profit potential. At that point you would have to be Nostradamous to guranatee you'll make a profit, it's pure chance. Until new insider insight comes along.
There are thousands of very smart people vying for that last 1% of non randomness in the markets. A few of them have been called the Smartest People In The Room
Intrinsic_Value, you're barking up my tree.
Here's a chart of Warren Buffets company Berkshire Hathaway. The shares went from 140k to 80k and now 120k over the last two years. He lost money.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Check out the Scoreboard on GuruFocus.com.
http://www.gurufocus.com/score_board.php
Look at the 5year return column (it takes in the start of the GFC), not every guru has figures but plenty do, and they aren't that great.
As for George Soros, the man is a genius, which I am not. Yet he's still blown up a few times trying to predict when the market will change.
Why is it so difficult to predict the markets, and how do the gurus do it...? Gurus use the Gordon Gekko strategy. If you remember the movie Wall Street, Gordon Gekko doesn't guess, he only bets on a sure thing.
Most gurus dont pick markets very well (Soros is one exception), what they do is pick stocks. The reason Warren Buffet is so good is not just smarts, he has direct access to every CEO, anywhere. Several studies have shown that the share portfolios of company directors are excellent performers, they know whether their companies will perform well, but they wont tell just anyone. Gurus share portfolios perform a little better because they have access to ALL company directors. But the best share portfolios of any study I have seen is U.S. senators (who have access to insights about government decissions). The word is not not insight, it's insider.
Other than insider information the markets are 99% random. They are designed that way, if you and I both have the same idea about buying a stock which is offered at $10.50, and you buy all those offered at that price, then I will have to buy at 10.51 or more. If we were both buying on inside information then we just removed two opportunities to profit from the market, so that market has become a degree more random because of our actions. If insiders keep buying that stock up, eventually the price will be so high that it no longer presents a profit potential. At that point you would have to be Nostradamous to guranatee you'll make a profit, it's pure chance. Until new insider insight comes along.
There are thousands of very smart people vying for that last 1% of non randomness in the markets. A few of them have been called the Smartest People In The Room
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Here's a piece from Glenn STEVENS Clicky Link Australia and Canada – comparing notes on recent experiences
Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce, Canada-Australia Breakfast, Sydney, 19 May 2009.
It includes a number of charts including one comparing loan delinquency data for the USofA, UK, Canada and Australia.
Remarks by Mr Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce, Canada-Australia Breakfast, Sydney, 19 May 2009.
It includes a number of charts including one comparing loan delinquency data for the USofA, UK, Canada and Australia.
But, but .... You make it sound as if he did well during the GFC but he didn't. Mr Amadio has a lot of his retirement savings in BRK-B. It went nowhere for years, then did a speccie runner upwards, then collapsed dramatically in the GFC along with most managed funds. It's only recently that it's gone upwards again. It hasn't been worth the sleepless nights.
http://quote.morningstar.com/Stock/s.aspx?t=BRK.B#
Click on 10 yr graph to see what a rollercoaster it's been.
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if you are interested in buffet here is something that may be of interest
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=806246
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=806246
REVIEW FOR HOUSE MARKET
http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/review-for-house-market-20100421-szzf.html
http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/review-for-house-market-20100421-szzf.html
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