Green Shoots

[willair]

Hi, I'd set my sights on 2900 [no particular reason except it seemed a reasonable low] but it never came. At one point, it really looked possible.


KY

Hard to say,the ASX/200 was very close to those numbers a while back there may be a very low probability that in this market it will return to those levels,some in this site think they will when external events outside our control come into play,in the trading game it's not how many times you are right,but how large your cumulative mistakes "$$$$" are..
Just wanted to ask why do you think 2900 will come into play?,Oil is about to rise again,most top 50 asx listed companies are in very good shape,even the "banks",people often accept that a financial strategy with a small chance of success is not necessarily a bad one,as long as the success is large enough to justify it,once that mindset comes back into the equities markets,the 7000 mark will be broken very quickly,..imho willair..
imho willair..

 

[chilliaa]

Hi, I'd set my sights on 2900 [no particular reason except it seemed a reasonable low] but it never came. At one point, it really looked possible.

Now, surely it looks rather improbable?

I actually tested the waters at just under 3200.

Will be interested if other people think sub 3000 is probable.

KY

i suggest stop worrying (or gambling/speculating) where you think the index will go in the short term, and start concentrating on researching individual stocks.

As many of the experienced property investors in this forum have shown, there is still money to be made in property regardless of the 'indexes' of property if you know the right angle.
Well the same applies to shares if you know what you are doing.

 

[Rob Williams]

As many of the experienced property investors in this forum have shown, there is still money to be made in property regardless of the 'indexes' of property if you know the right angle.
Well the same applies to shares if you know what you are doing.

So true. There really isn't any such thing as "the market". There are many markets and markets within those markets.

 

[boz]

Hi, I'd set my sights on 2900 [no particular reason except it seemed a reasonable low] but it never came. At one point, it really looked possible.

Now, surely it looks rather improbable?

I actually tested the waters at just under 3200.

Will be interested if other people think sub 3000 is probable.

KY

I think 2200-2300 is a good support area for the ASX200.
You have to watch the S&P500, if it clear the previous march low all speculator/traders will turn bear and send markets to very low level like the 2200 on the ASX.
Today the S&P500 turned down big time and sunk under 900. The ASX could lose 100 points just today (copper is also down 5% and oil 4%)

 

[evand]

That's sort of true but not often. Its like one of those peddled out myths with no basis in fact, only anecdotes.

If the overall market(s) is heading down the chance of finding a 'sub market' or single property that is rising is low.

Just like the stock market. You want the overall index (eg: ASX200) to be rising, the sector your share is in (eg: energy) to be rising. This will massively increase the chance that the individual share you are buying will be rising in price.

So true. There really isn't any such thing as "the market". There are many markets and markets within those markets.

 

[boz]

That's sort of true but not often. Its like one of those peddled out myths with no basis in fact, only anecdotes.

If the overall market(s) is heading down the chance of finding a 'sub market' or single property that is rising is low.

Just like the stock market. You want the overall index (eg: ASX200) to be rising, the sector your share is in (eg: energy) to be rising. This will massively increase the chance that the individual share you are buying will be rising in price.

that is correct, there is a important say trader have always in mind:
"the market can be irrational longer then you can be solvent"

 

[chilliaa]

That's sort of true but not often. Its like one of those peddled out myths with no basis in fact, only anecdotes.

If the overall market(s) is heading down the chance of finding a 'sub market' or single property that is rising is low.

Just like the stock market. You want the overall index (eg: ASX200) to be rising, the sector your share is in (eg: energy) to be rising. This will massively increase the chance that the individual share you are buying will be rising in price.

quite possibly if you are a trader,
quite possibly not if you are an investor.

If you only invest when the index is rising and more specifically when the sector is rising, then you also run the risk of entering a crowded position. If the position becomes crowded, then any change of sentiment will have a magnified effect on the stock price.

 

[evand]

A 'crowded position' means increase volume. I'd rather sell in a high volume market than a low one. Even at the modest amounts i play with (eg: $100k per position) its sometimes difficult to get in or out.

So, i'd rather good volume than a crap market. In fact if there was no decent volume in the market i stay out as its a pre requisite to purchase. As any decent trader/investor knows. That includes property or shares.

quite possibly if you are a trader,
quite possibly not if you are an investor.

If you only invest when the index is rising and more specifically when the sector is rising, then you also run the risk of entering a crowded position. If the position becomes crowded, then any change of sentiment will have a magnified effect on the stock price.