Herron Todd White 2008 Forecast

[Bulldog]

Just got this thru on the email from API e-newsletter. Would love to know what the Forum thinks especially about the list of cities/areas already at their peak...???

"Mixed fortunes for Australian markets

Housing markets around Australia finished 2007 at wildly varying stages of the property cycle, according to property advisors Herron Todd White.

Herron Todd White (HTW) research director Rick Carr says parts of the Sydney market saw a dramatic slowdown in 2007.

“However, Sydney has now passed through the bottom of the cycle and some areas, notably the northern and eastern suburbs, are back in rising territory,” Carr says.

Melbourne’s inner-city suburbs showed very strong growth during 2007 while the outer suburbs struggled with stable prices or marginal increases, he adds.

HTW’s Residential Property Clock places locations around the nation on a clock face depending on where they sit in the property cycle.

Among its listings are:

Bottom of market: Bendigo; Newcastle; Sydney west

Starting to rise: Ballarat; Gold Coast; Sydney south; Toowoomba; Warrnambool

Rising market: Adelaide; Brisbane; Bundaberg; Gippsland; Gladstone; NSW north coast; Port Augusta; Sunshine Coast; Sydney east; Sydney north; Townsville; Wagga Wagga.

Approaching peak of market: Cairns; Hervey Bay

Peak of market: Albury/Wodonga; Burnie/Devonport; Busselton; Canberra; Darwin; Geelong; Hobart; Launceston; Mackay; Melbourne; Nowra/Bega; Riverland SA; Rockhampton; Wollongong

Starting to decline: Geraldton; Mandurah; Perth

Declining market: Bunbury

 

[devo76]

NOWRA !!!!! PEAK OF MARKET!!!! That is the stupidest thing i have heard in awhile. I live in nowra. We expierianced the boom of 2001 but by around 2003-4 it had peaked with values stalled or steadily dropping ever since. My property i believe has dropped from say $390,000 at absolute peak in 03 to say around $340,000 now and im in a area that is doing better than surrounding ones.Do they even know where Nowra is.If anything i believed it has bottomed. And that is based on me watching local sales.There are a few more on there that are way of but ill leave them alone. They got the obviose ones right but read a newspaper and they will tell you the same in ten minutes.Thats my rant.

PS Forgot to add i looked at purchasing my first Ip in north nowra in 2003 and i was told you would get nothing under $200,000. There are now plenty of units available between $100,000 and $150,000.And from what i understand wollongong isnt doing much better. I would say the entire south coast and illawarra is at the bottom of its cycle exept for maybe pockets of prime areas. Now im not saying the market is recovering, we may be at the bottom for some time yet but we are far past the peak thats for sure. If prices were to drop more it will be a australia wide thing due to current global climate not local property cycle conditions.

 

[mystery]

NOWRA !!!!! PEAK OF MARKET!!!! That is the stupidest thing i have heard in awhile. I live in nowra. We expierianced the boom of 2001 but by around 2003-4 it had peaked with values stalled or steadily dropping ever since. My property i believe has dropped from say $390,000 at absolute peak in 03 to say around $340,000 now and im in a area that is doing better than surrounding ones.Do they even know where Nowra is.If anything i believed it has bottomed. And that is based on me watching local sales.There are a few more on there that are way of but ill leave them alone. They got the obviose ones right but read a newspaper and they will tell you the same in ten minutes.Thats my rant.

PS Forgot to add i looked at purchasing my first Ip in north nowra in 2003 and i was told you would get nothing under $200,000. There are now plenty of units available between $100,000 and $150,000.And from what i understand wollongong isnt doing much better. I would say the entire south coast and illawarra is at the bottom of its cycle exept for maybe pockets of prime areas. Now im not saying the market is recovering, we may be at the bottom for some time yet but we are far past the peak thats for sure. If prices were to drop more it will be a australia wide thing due to current global climate not local property cycle conditions.

Totally agree devo76, ..... I live near Narooma, further south than you and I have watched it pullback for the past few years. The lower end of the market ($200k - $300k) is now starting to show signs of recovering, but like Nowra and most of the south and far south coast of NSW we are definitely at the bottom of the cycle.

Like you I think HTW should stick to the major cities and forget about regional area predictions as they seem to be crap at it ....

Martin

 

[BayView]

Devo and Mystery;

what do think is/was the cause of the decline in the two housing markets you mentioned?

 

[Nth Brisbanite]

Cannot believe that Brisbane is in a rising market. If 20% increase for the past year is not a boom, I don't know what one is. Other forecasters believe that Brisbane will peak at the end of the March and keep rising at a slower rate for the rest of the year.

According Herrod Todd White, Brisbane has been in a rising market for over a year.

 

[devo76]

Devo and Mystery;

what do think is/was the cause of the decline in the two housing markets you mentioned?

Not sure to be honest. The illawarra and south coast have suffered from the nsw slump like many other places in nsw but i believe if the economy rolls on things should start to improve. Plenty of infrastructure heading our way with link roads to canberra and to the north. Many of the lower price properties could not be replaced for there asking price and are therefore below true value.I am now looking alot closer at properties in NSW. Even if the slump continues for a few more years it will just allow me to purchase more properties before any rise.I know how much properties were going for a few years ago and if they were to return to that in preperation for another boom. Well then there is plenty of money to be made.

 

[devo76]

Just had another look at a 2 story 4 bed house with massive rooftop rumpus and great mountain views.200 meters to shops,200 meters to school and 200 meterts from a natural bush gully and creek with walking trail all in one of nowra's better areas.Asking $280,000 but would sell for $260,000 maybe less.I know for a fact that this same house sold in 2003 for $340,000.A block of land in this areas would sell for around$220,000 if available during 2003 so like i said. We are far past a peak.

 

[asdf]

Just had another look at a 2 story 4 bed house with massive rooftop rumpus and great mountain views.200 meters to shops,200 meters to school and 200 meterts from a natural bush gully and creek with walking trail all in one of nowra's better areas.Asking $280,000 but would sell for $260,000 maybe less.I know for a fact that this same house sold in 2003 for $340,000.A block of land in this areas would sell for around$220,000 if available during 2003 so like i said. We are far past a peak.

Hey Devo76, Sounds disastrous if you bought in 03 and had to off load. I agree all throug the South Coast prices have tapered off with no sign of picking up really... yet. What kind of rent will this place fetch? Agree, you can't replace it for that kind of price anymore.

 

[devo76]

Hey Devo76, Sounds disastrous if you bought in 03 and had to off load. I agree all throug the South Coast prices have tapered off with no sign of picking up really... yet. What kind of rent will this place fetch? Agree, you can't replace it for that kind of price anymore.

Many people are either not selling or there holding on to higher prices which also means not selling.Some like this one are meeting the current market.I believe with a repaint and some carpet you would get around$ 300 to $320.Some houses like this one are i believe below true value so in time the area should see a return to better values.Its not the same all over. Some places are holding value,many dropping.It is worth looking at now as you have already saved a fair bit by not buying in the boom.

 

[Aaron Sice]

some of these reports rely on 9-12 month old data. i take them all with a grain of salt.

 

[julie]

albury plummeting not peaking

Yes, things are different on the ground in the regional towns. Albury is a lovely town but peaked in 2002. A couple of stable years followed and it began to drop two years ago. At the moment prices are down 10 per cent and I am just renting my house out as I couldn't sell it without a big loss. Virgin blue are starting a service next week so I hope they know something i don't. I don't think that report is accurate at all.

 

[Novar]

Peak of market: Albury/Wodonga; Burnie/Devonport; Busselton; Canberra; Darwin; Geelong; Hobart; Launceston; Mackay; Melbourne; Nowra/Bega; Riverland SA; Rockhampton; Wollongong

I think they are spot on here.
I've been thinking this for 6 mths for Mackay, houses are over priced and sitting with little interest. Lots of 'vendor must sell' and 'price reduced advertising' ... sometimes by $40,000 or more.
I know people who had 0ffers over $820,000 on their house and settled for *cough* $700,000

Talking to a friend in Rocky today who has been told by R/agent that nothing is selling!

I'm watching closely and will jump in when I think there's a bargain to be had.

 

[grossreal]

hi all
I have read a few of the herron white reports and not sure how or where they get there information from and have not seen as yet one thats on the ball.
the cbre lady is the same and seen lots of her reports also.
the gold coast if you think is rising get on a plane and see the cranes its along way further then rising.
risen markets
what part of north coast nsw the only part thats moving is being either bought by grey power or is so close to the qld border that the coolangatta people etc are buying.
as for sydney north have a look at hornsby and waitara if its a rising market some one wants to change there glasses its been correcting for about 1.5 yrs and is still correcting anyone that jumps into that rising market working of herron white its a rising market best have a very big bank balance.
as for peak of the market non of the market they look at I have looked at
why

Albury/Wodonga not main stream investment areas; Burnie/Devonport both hard to get to and would not for me have huge growth; Busselton to far from perth and from my understanding has alot of movement up; Canberra lots of development that not been started and lots of site been around to lots of lenders and the margin is not there at this stage; Darwin not sure why this one is in here as alot of people are looking at darwin and I think has a lot more to run; Geelong not sure; Hobart had alot of nsw and melb speculating on its a good place to invest and still has a lot of steam in the market; Launcestonsame as above; Mackay this one is funny why it in here as it aimed as a growth area and I have not seen much movement in its pricing but will have a look; Melbourne probably correctbut would have had it as a already fall; Nowra/Begadon't know; Riverland SA don't know; Rockhampton same as mackay there is alot of investing because of the commodityboom and its going into this area so not sure if its at a peak at this stage; Wollongong unusual market as it rises and falls and is not driven by sydney with the increase of sub division in the shoal haven this is increasing this area and with it increase the size of this city, I think that it is a very dark horsehas it peak not on my crystal ball.
as for that other 5 dazzling is in that market and tell us or auspro.
I think alot of these valuation or what ever are worked out on past data and you really need to understand the market you are investing in so they are for me not that important what is important is what is a market going to do tomorrow.
now if you can tell me that
it would be great