hmmm dubai

property values drop 47% in the quarter. government owes $800bil on "world" project alone. stocks markets reeling.

any takers? is it the end of the current downturn - or the beginning of the next?
I don't think so not over there,Dubai is only one area in the United Arab Emirates,so money will be not a problem,plus they have till 30 May 2010.” when the big number dirhams bonds will be maturing,just another bump in the road..imho willair..
 
For Dubai to be a bigger credit risk than iceland says something. Dubai is meant to be the new world eldorado.

All that this shows is how tenous most things are. This incident makes a mockery of the idea that anyone of us (economists, traders, the barefoot investor, David Hasselhoff) can predict what will happen to the economy, house prices etc going forward. Too many variables!

Save, invest, save, invest, save, invest....watch your debt.

I don't think it is fair to lump the legendary Hoff with the rest of those no hopers.:D
 
property values drop 47% in the quarter. government owes $800bil on "world" project alone. stocks markets reeling.

any takers? is it the end of the current downturn - or the beginning of the next?

I think as property values have come down by as much as 50% since their peak in 2008, properties will now be seen as good value so other investors will come in and pick them up. The problem though would be to find tenants because the Dubai population is going down as thousands of workers who no longer have work in the construction industry have left.

the guy below must be in a lot of pain.....
The 38-year old British investor, who paid close to $200,000 for an apartment in Nakheel's Discovery Gardens development and $50,000 for a retail outlet at Dubai's International City, said he's losing about $2000 a month as the shop stands empty. "I'm being hit from all sides," he said.
 
Sure am glad I wasn't tempted by one of those lovely apartments...I did make an enquiry about 4 years ago. It seemed too risky. Having spent some time there, one issue I was concerned about was the high turn over in ex-pats in regards to rentals.

Not to mention the risk of investing in such a country.

One of the neighboring Emirate Shaiks will bail it out no doubt. What are they brothers? Cousins?

I cannot see a huge effect on the Aussie Economy. If we were talking about China, that would be another matter.

Might be good for my ANZ shares though...

Regards JO
 
won't impact the australian economy? 50% of the money we borrow here are funded offshore, if overseas banks are affected because of the lost billions, the cost of funds to keep our economy pumping will rocket sky high. We still have room to move with RBA being able to bring rates down however if cost of funds are sky high even the RBA will not be able to keep rates low.
RBA sets the overnight cash rate, LIBOR rates are the ones to watch.
 
One of the neighboring Emirate Shaiks will bail it out no doubt. What are they brothers? Cousins?

Regards JO

They aren't related, they come from totally different families. The only emirate with any money in the UAE is Abu Dhabi. They have the worlds biggest sovereign fund, estimated as high as $600 Billion. They have already bailed out Dubai on a least 2 occasions and are probably this time letting the royal family of Dubai squirm a bit more before they come in and mop up the place. Abu Dhabi will come out of this with a much stronger controlling interest is my guess.
 
hi all
uae has its own problems
and those are not that easy to overcome.
for one state to think te other is going to be able to come in and help needs that state not to have its own problems
if you look at uae it has alot of issue that need to be addressed health, education, aged care, and handycap issue plus transport are all huge for this nation
they have not been doing as the dubai guys have in building a huge shopping center in the desert but they have been trying to solve some of the issue that money brings
to nations that did not have this money to start with.
these nations were desert dewellers and they have a history of this.
and money has brought with it issues they have not had to confront.
but they do now
and thats has and is a big problem.
now can they throw billions into a sand pit to go to westerners that they see as causing this problem.
I think not.
on top of that these loans are sharia loans or sharia bonds
what we see here as no interest and no guarantee loans
I am interested that alot of companies are saying that they did not invest in this or that because they did not take the loan
well not sure how that works with a sharia loan and this will be very interesting in its self.
what will happen
collapse
the loans won't be paid back
they will not be able to chase
and the whole thing will be come a total right down
they will go to hyper inflations and the houses in the sand islands will sell as the price goes thru the floor and the food prices go thru the roof.
invest there
not for me
these people have been horse and animal trading for centries.
its in there blood they are natural traders.
with trading you have to know when to pack up the tent and move on
and they know this.
the banks or funders that have funded them think they will stick around.
tell me why.
most can go to uae tomorrow and no funder can put a finger on them.
they could walk away and leave the buildings to go back to the sand
( maybe the russian could have an issue but thats about it).
will the fall out be huge.
for me yes
as the fastest growing type of funding was sharia funding
and the biggest funders were comming from this area so that is going to have big issues for these funds
and I will keep an eye on this market because I think this will be the biggest hit
 
Ace, I wonder what Abu Dhabi's investments are and
and thanks Nommy, I get the bigger picture now.

Interesting insight grossreal,as usual.

Do I understand correctly that Sharia Loans came with some sort of upfront fee - a rather large one to compensate for lack of Interest?

Regards JO
 
Seems like things have been going downhill for a while.

The following article dates back to Feb documenting the exodus of expats leaving debt liabilities behind. I was actually looking for an article I have read previously where someone lost their job over there and was immediately arrested to stop them leaving the country and their 'debts'.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/the_gulf/article5663618.ece

Not sure whether these people were just abandoning their lives in Dubai due to their inability to budget.

Cheers
 
I don't think Abu Dhabi will be bailing Dubai out this time, My personal opinion is that they will pick up the assets at firesale prices. Time will only tell though
 
hi
a sharia loan is a very differnet type of loan
as you don't own the asset the funder doesso its the same as say westpac owning the house and you are buying back off them bit by bit
now there is also no interest on the loan so you pay a management fee for the funder to run their business
and after the predetermind term you have paid the house off the house is yours
there is no interest on the loan but also if you put your money into a sharia bank you get no interest either.
the issue for western groups that are use to interest that this type of funding is very unusual
but in arb or muslim countries these are the norm type of funding as under there rules you can make money on money
you can make money on business but not the money itself
so its very different.
we have had a couple of groups trying to bring this type of funding in but it has to conform and they have not been able to make that happen
there is no difference with regard to risk as the fudner holds the asset not the client.
the client hold the loan but the asset does not transfer until full payment is finalised.
now before you ask do or can they make a profit
the simplest answer to that
is taht sharia funding is the most popular growing type of funding in the asia rim at the moment I think and read some where and also of all the types of mass banking or funding it is up in the top 5 as being the most profitable.

if the assetts ib dubai are sharia
then the funders that have lent the money have no recoarse.
because until the asset is realised they can't get paid.
no if they have lent money it will be as a form of profit share ( if there is a profit)
now if there is a loss is does not go the other way
as the funder is holding the asset
the problem here is that I think alot of these deal were done with sharia bonds.
now this bond to me is going to be a real problem to the bond holder
because you are makeing a profit on money as you don't have an asset and if they are non conforming and a few people are saying they are.
then the bond is less then toilet paper.
and this will be very interesting to see how they pan out
these bonds have only been in the market for about 12 months that I know of and a few big wigs have been flying with them
and there is millions on them
and lots have said that they do not understand how they work as they are sharia but are aimd at making money on money which I can't see how they comply.
 
Dubai is an amazing place. We were able to spend three days there this June having previously just used the airport for transit.

Always check your taxi driver speaks decent English and knows exactly where they are going!

To me the visit was fascinating, I liken it to a city designed by a teenager with an unlimited expense budget. Would like to say more, but a lot of it wouldn't be that positive, I can't stop thinking of the following prophecy however.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel."
wiki link

Has anybody seen the 3 level aquarium and indoor zoo at the Dubai Mall? Really is an amazing place!
 
Abu Dhabi can easily afford to bail out Dubai if they want to. Now this is the big question, at what price and conditions are they willing to do this at. Thats why I think they will negotiate hard and come away from the whole mess in a strong controlling position. What is that old saying "whoever controls the purse strings controls all".
 
hi

the problem here is that I think alot of these deal were done with sharia bonds.
now this bond to me is going to be a real problem to the bond holder
because you are makeing a profit on money as you don't have an asset and if they are non conforming and a few people are saying they are.
then the bond is less then toilet paper.
and this will be very interesting to see how they pan out
these bonds have only been in the market for about 12 months that I know of and a few big wigs have been flying with them
and there is millions on them
and lots have said that they do not understand how they work as they are sharia but are aimd at making money on money which I can't see how they comply.

If what you are saying here is correct I will be watching the outcome with interest.

Compliance never seems to be an issue if there are enough bigwigs to bend the rules in the short term. Multitudes of money can lead to a multitude of temptation. Creative avenues and creative solutions.

It seems to me the snowball affect is alot worse than I first imagined. Time will tell as always.

Regards JO
 
Abu Dhabi can easily afford to bail out Dubai if they want to. Now this is the big question, at what price and conditions are they willing to do this at. Thats why I think they will negotiate hard and come away from the whole mess in a strong controlling position. What is that old saying "whoever controls the purse strings controls all".

This is what I have thought all along.

Regards JO
 
What worries me is basically the pattern is continuing for whatever reason and it's basically still ending in 40 or 50% property dumps following major booms.

I've decided to edit the rest of what I was going to add.

Cheers
 
Last edited:
Back
Top