Home loans slump most in a decade. How can this be?

One month's stats does not make for a wholistic market view.

I feel that number of loans have dropped because there was a real high number approved in Dec/Nov when the first home buyers were in a panic to buy before the grant stopped.

Thus the number of loans would drop dramatically in Jan.

The question will be to see what happens with the Jan-Mar quarter stats...if they continue to rise as I suspect is happening...this will be the telling sign.

The tightening of credit by the banks is quite smart actually because it will match demand and supply in the short term though I suspect rents will rocket. Eventually, the pressure from the pend up demand will catch-up ...I suspect this will be in 2012 onward as credit loosens due to the recovering economies around the world.

Time will tell....but I am putting my money where my mouth is....but I am also being prudent and following my strategy of adding value and increasing yields to neutral or positive within 2-3 years.

It's certainly not happening in Melbourne... I would think that the same is happening elsewhere?

Maybe just another bulldust report by the media? Or maybe because it was January and everybody was on holidays?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-loans-slump-most-in-a-decade-20100310-pxpp.html
 
Conspiracy theory

The RBA wants to lift IRs to halt what it sees as a boom in property prices. This will not begin to have an impact IMO until IRs go up another 1.5+%.

THe RBA cannot do this and also have an economic recovery - it would kill off business investment, employment growth etc.

One would almost be inclined to believe that the RBA / Govt. might have met with the bankers and decided that one way the bankers might help out here was to:
1. Increase IRs to home loan borrowers outside the RBA increases
2. Restrict the supply of credit by lowering LVR's and tightening lending criteria (when the AU economic climate does not warrant such action).

But I've never been a conspiracy theorist up until today, so I guess that must not be right.
 
The figures they are talking about are seasonally adjusted, meaning they are in comparison to the same period as last year.. this is to eliminate the "on holidays, less stock is available in January, January is quieter", etc phenomena.

The RBA wants to lift IRs to halt what it sees as a boom in property prices. This will not begin to have an impact IMO until IRs go up another 1.5+%.

THe RBA cannot do this and also have an economic recovery - it would kill off business investment, employment growth etc.

That's the entertaining thing about the d&g'ers argument.. They somehow believe higher rates will be the death of the housing market and the economy, when in fact they will be in response to a strong economy and healthy housing market! If no healthy economy, the likelihood of further rises is reduced - quite simple.
 
or is this just the litmus test? the true indicator of the state of our economy.

I am baffled as to why melbourne would be going for a run, but the trend is your friend.

there is very strong upfront investment in resources, but at this stage it's all construction camps etc etc - too early to translate into anything tangible unless you are leightons or similar
 
lets see the march figures and then compare.

this is just sensationalist garbage to seel a newspaper or expose you to online advertising.

the minute the FHB is over - of course bluddy mortgage applications slumped.
 
well, its another week of mixed data

ANZ jobs ads survey, 20 % growth, highest ever recorded

Gov states that only 400 job were created last month .......

Lots of noise there



ta
rolf
 
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