Hotspotting or Timing the Market

Hello Skater and Profit,

I will post details once the vendor signs!

It was due to go to auction but we have put in a bid early that has been verbally accepted. I am in Sydney today and tomorrow so am going to go and have a look for myself :D.

Cheers

Bigtone
 
There's a snippet in this month's API on property clocks - would this be similar to the idea behind hotspotting/timing the market?

Basically the author thought that Syd/Melb were at 2 o'clock on the property clock (rising market), Brisbane was at 12 o'clock (about to start a rising market following flow-on effect from Syd/Melb), and Adelaide lagged behind at 10 o'clock.

I think that's what the times were, (I was reading API very late last night, sorry if I misquoted the author).
 
There's a snippet in this month's API on property clocks - would this be similar to the idea behind hotspotting/timing the market?

Basically the author thought that Syd/Melb were at 2 o'clock on the property clock (rising market), Brisbane was at 12 o'clock (about to start a rising market following flow-on effect from Syd/Melb), and Adelaide lagged behind at 10 o'clock.

I think that's what the times were, (I was reading API very late last night, sorry if I misquoted the author).

Hi Tess,

What does each stage of the clock represent? I would have thought Melb was ahead of Syd in the cycle.

BTW for those that were asking the property I was trying to buy has fallen through ( again). It was in Cammeray, BA thought the strata report was unacceptable. Very frustrating process this, in Victoria it would have all been in the section 32 upfront and would have saved a weeks work and $1000 in fees. The vendor after accepting my verbal initial offer then asked for more as another offer came in before they signed the exchange. So I had increased my offer so that combined with an unsatisfactory strata report resulted in me pulling out, anyway still looking:mad:
 
Generally, with a property clock, the top of the market is at 12 o'clock and the bottom at six. here is an example of an article that talks about it.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/australia-leads-property-recovery/story-e6frg2ru-1225854129577

Sorry to hear that the Cammeray place fell through! :(

Thanks Tess,

So API are using a different clock then? You can't be at 2pm on a clock that only goes between 6 -12. Anyway people's thoughts on this would be interesting especially cities like Perth and Darwin, Hobart etc.


I will only rank the cities that I am researching at the moment.

Melb 10.30pm

Sydney 8.45pm

Bri 7.45pm

Perth 6.30pm

Interested to hear other people's thoughts, especially investors on their own cities.


Cheers

Bigtone
 
Wait - now I'm confused- I think API's clock might be the reverse of the one in the article I linked, because Sydney and Brisbane were listed at 2 o'clock (in a rising market already?!). I think I might shut up now before I confuse any more people...... obviously reading my API mag at midnight last night hasn't helped me to remember anything... will dig it out when I get home.
 
In Townsville it is midnight (in Antarctica) Hasn't moved for a few years.

Yes think your right there, any distant prospects of growth?

I have one there which went straight up for 12 months, but has not moved at all since based on valuations.

cheers

BTU
 
Sorry to hear about your deal falling through Bigtone.
How much did they initially accept for it? Also are you only looking at the north shore for your Sydney purchase?
 
Sorry to hear about your deal falling through Bigtone.
How much did they initially accept for it? Also are you only looking at the north shore for your Sydney purchase?

Hi Profit,

The initial offer was $575k and it was accepted, they were offered $580k so I went to $582k which was again accepted but then strata report came in. Issue is the body corp requires a $7k contribution by June from each unit for renos. I like this scenario as you often get the place cheaper because of the required contribution however it was an estimate and the BA thought it was miles under and the cost could end up being a lot higher so due to uncertainties I pulled out. I once got an absolute bargain unit on beach road in Melb because of the body corporate contribution required and then after settlement body corp decided not to proceed, probably bought 20% under market value as a result and has had big growth since.

In terms of Sydney i was looking in inner west but kept losing at auction then this unit on Nth Shore with some harbour views was cheaper than the inner west so had a crack. Basically I will buy anywhere in Sydney if I think the area and property type has growth potential.

Cheers

Bigtone
 
Yes think your right there, any distant prospects of growth?

I have one there which went straight up for 12 months, but has not moved at all since based on valuations.

cheers

BTU
You may have gathered that I don't watch prop prices closely. (Understatement?)

In two days a tenant of mine will vacate and I will have a chance to test the market.

I'm a long time native and I've always called Townsville "pregnant", ie there is always something big going to happen soon. With that in mind, there is a lot "about to happen" here still. And no way will we ever suffer the swings of Cairns. Maybe we are just out of step. :)
 
Thanks Tess,

So API are using a different clock then? You can't be at 2pm on a clock that only goes between 6 -12. Anyway people's thoughts on this would be interesting especially cities like Perth and Darwin, Hobart etc.


I will only rank the cities that I am researching at the moment.

Melb 10.30pm

Sydney 8.45pm

Bri 7.45pm

Perth 6.30pm

Interested to hear other people's thoughts, especially investors on their own cities.


Cheers

Bigtone

So Tone what do 12 o'clock and 6 o'clock mean ?
 
So Tone what do 12 o'clock and 6 o'clock mean ?

Jaycee it refers to the stage in the property cycle of. We had a bit of a discussion on that in some earlier posts, general consensus was 6 o'clock bottom of market 12 o'clock top of market so starting to move so pat 6 but still some room before 12 is the ideal.

Cheers

BT
 
Actually the real investment clock as I remember is more like seasons. As equities become overpriced, property comes into favour which drives up interest which makes fixed interest the way to go and property becomes hard to hold. As interest rates drop punters go back to the equity markets chasing returns.

I guess property mags will have 12 at the peak of the prop cycle while shares mags will have it the peak of shares. But all the seasons have something for someone.
 
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