Hotspotting or Timing the Market

Don't be too hard on yourself. Obviously if you gear to the hilt and prices keep going up, you will look like a genius.

The problem is that they don't.

Over the long term it's hard to make money with Low Doc loans - the additional interest margin doesn't make it worthwhile.

Thanks Paul for the considered words. I am not frustated by my inaction - it is what it is. :D The market will go up and down as do all investment asset classes. I try to be a long term investor (buy and hold), so my aim is not to speculate and time the market as the sole drivier of my property investment. (However, I do participate in the discussion for fun). Although my serviceability is limited by the bank's standard, I am not financially stressed - I have a sufficent contingency fund for the odd occassions.

The issue for me is that I have planned for myself to be further along than I currently am (one property behind). I have the financial pre-approval ready, and I have been looking at my targetted areas pretty much every week, but I refused to pay for something that is not value for money by my calculations. There lies my challenge. (it was difficult as you can imagine in the last 12 months of seller's market in Melbourne).

I agree with you that loc doc loans (with higher interest rates) can certainly make it less profitable/feasible, so I really have to do my own analysis. But it is definitely a viable option worth considering. From what I have seen, the difference is not that substantial and with a decent mortgage broker, I can probably achieve a sufficient return.
 
hi bigtone,I dont know if your familiar with the greensquare to mascot region in the inner east of syd .Anyway iam and I reckon there is plenty of scope. I secured an apartment last november for $531k off plan , old stock adjacent is going for 550-600k south facing . My buy is north facing on level 9/city veiws, completion mid 2011,mind you it is sold out. Could be an indicator of existing stock. good luck
 
G'day Kennyjaiz,

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, just got off the plane from Vegas, my god what an awesome place to spend a week (but probably not much longer) wish I went there when I was single. It is amazing a place that appears lawless has no visible signs of trouble. So many drunk people and you can drink anywhere and carry drinks from one place to another, on the street, anywhere basically but I didn't see anything that came near a fight, what are we doing wrong in Melbourne?

Well, it kicked my back side - up, down and all around - seriously considering legal action for assault charges :p

I think I've worked out why you have been so successful in such a short period of time. You were responding to my post at 2.40am. So I gather you are an android that does not require sleep? :D

Yeah Bon Jovi were onto it in the 80's " i'll sleep when I'm dead"


Do you use a business structure (not necessarily a company)? or as an individual?
With the credit policy tightening, it may be a bit difficult to load up properties on low doc, but I will definitely investigate. Thanks.

Individual name, it was just easier that way

I have 4 lenders for my 6 properties in order to minimize my LMI. (The major financial providers only use 2-3 major underwriters, which makes it difficult to fully diversify the cost of LMI). But having multiple lenders limits my ability to pool my LOC. How do you manage to have 10 diff lenders and still run your properties through the same LOC. (I guess that's more of a question for a mortgage broker)

Basically I get second loans against the properties and place the surplus funds into the one LOC which runs nearly all my properties, the second loans are fully drawn and just become another repayment each month.

Certainly don't mind risk-free money investments ;)

Yep I will put that in the prospectus "risk-free" quoting KennyJaiz next page a picture of a bloke on a big boat on a deckchair with a hot chick in bikini on either side and on the other page a guy teeing off on a oceanfront golf course, they will be queuing up to invest.

I used a mortgage broker for the first 2 properties, but haven't since. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find a competent one that I can trust. I have a tax accounting and financial planning background (It was short-lived and I no longer practice in those fields). While they may be well-intentioned, I have found that mortgage broker are only too keen to give financial advice. And the mortgage brokers I have experienced so far, lacks the attention to detail I require (besides the rate, the lender, the LMI, the functions/features, I need them to be aware of the exit fee, on-going maintenance fee, the ability port the loan to another property and advise accordingly, etc). I have managed to out-do a mortgage broker for all of the remaining properties, but I agree with you. I need to find a competent mortgage broker who knows their stuff and assist me through my challenges. Do you have any mortgage broker you would recommend in Melbourne? Long term u need one as an outsider very hard to keep up with the ins and outs, policy changes etc and of course the little tricks that get picked up, my broker is a gun ;) but he doesn't take new clients at this stage, I am sure some people on this forum could recommend a good one. PTBear and Rolf and others seem to know their stuff very well from my readings here but I have never met them and don't know who they are so current clients probably best to advise on that.

I tend to agree with you with regards to cash flow positive properties. It will have negligible impact but limits the capital growth component. But I do think it is well suited to investors starting out with limited budget and income.

Are you working on Properties full time these days? Or do you still have another full time job on top of your property investments?

I work full time, i don't really spend much time on my properties, my bookeeper in my business manages my properties for me as part of her job, she has full authority to deal with the agents and make decisions, i just don't want to know or be bothered with any of that stuff. She is 27 and has 6 Ip's of her own and I trust her completely. She has access to my bank accounts and she pays all the rates, body corp etc so I can do as little as possible


Yes, I think I've missed the opportunity in Melbourne and Sydney already. Brisbane is probably a good idea. Where would you recommend? (I will of course do my own due diligence). I tend to look at houses with high land content (>600 sqm) within 15km of the CBD and high capital growth in the short term (rental is secondary). Budget is under 400K. My existing brisbane property is in Zillmere (north).

Can't go wrong with that criteria, I also like old units in Brissy but if that is not your thing stick with the houses.

Thanks BT. I have been lucky. Most of my properties are in Melbourne within 15km of the CBD and they have demonstrated extra-ordinary growth in the past 12 months. While I do not count on this continuing, as you said - it is sweet. I hope to maximise my opportunities and be a little bit more agressive.

Someone had a go at me about saying i was lucky so I will do same with you, you made informed decisions and acted on them, in effect made your own luck so well done.

One thing I can't agree with is the low doc loan comments, if i didn't go low doc i would have no investment properties so to say over the long term it is hard to make money doesn't wash with me. They have been a god send to me. If an investment property is not a good investment based on a 1%-2% rate differential then it is not a good investment in the first place. By that logic a property bought a year ago on a rate of 5.5% is now not a good investment because rates are now 6.5%, i would have been happy to be paying 25% interest rate to buy half of Melb 18 months ago and could refinance them all over to low doc 60%'s now at normal rates, it is a deal by deal decision and the cost of money is just one factor to consider in the big picture. If your cost is a bit higher than someone else's you just make up the ground in another area and there are plenty of ways to do that.

Again, thanks for your invaluable wisdom and generosity.

Pleasure

K.
 
Hi lisap, I believe the Greensqure precinct holds great potential going forward, due to massive urban renewal. Ive lived in the area since 2003 and have seen its popularity grow, particularly in the last year or so. Current rental yields are between 6% and 6.5% and looks like growing due to lack of supply. Once construction starts on the gstc and the media gets on it ,it will take off, if it hasnt started already
 
G'day Kennyjaiz,

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, just got off the plane from Vegas, my god what an awesome place to spend a week (but probably not much longer) wish I went there when I was single. It is amazing a place that appears lawless has no visible signs of trouble. So many drunk people and you can drink anywhere and carry drinks from one place to another, on the street, anywhere basically but I didn't see anything that came near a fight, what are we doing wrong in Melbourne?

I go to vegas most years to play the world series of poker, and the above is what i've thought for a long time. In vegas you can walk from casino to casino to shopping mall all whilst drinking unlimited amounts. I have spent alot of time there and never seen one fight except the ufc lol. It just shows that the australian police have no idea how to maintain order.

Sorry to derail the thread.
 
G'day Kennyjaiz,

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you, just got off the plane from Vegas, my god what an awesome place to spend a week (but probably not much longer) wish I went there when I was single. It is amazing a place that appears lawless has no visible signs of trouble. So many drunk people and you can drink anywhere and carry drinks from one place to another, on the street, anywhere basically but I didn't see anything that came near a fight, what are we doing wrong in Melbourne?
No need to apologise, we all have lives outside of this forum!! Some more so than the others. :) I still haven't been to Vegas, sounds like I'm missing out, but I'm still waiting for one of my ex-es to come knocking on my door demanding for a shotgun wedding. :p
I'm on a business trip in Perth... Melbourne has done a lot of things right in comparison, IMHO.

Yeah Bon Jovi were onto it in the 80's " i'll sleep when I'm dead"
I agree, but I get cranky when I'm fatigued - not so good for everyone around me.

Individual name, it was just easier that way
I agree to a certain extent. Being a former tax accountant, I'm also aware of the tax implication when we eventually sell the properties. I will need to look at another structure in the near future (most likely discretionary trust with company trustee) for tax minimisation and asset protection.


Basically I get second loans against the properties and place the surplus funds into the one LOC which runs nearly all my properties, the second loans are fully drawn and just become another repayment each month.
That is what I have been doing as well. But keeping track of what loan is drawn as deposit for which property, and what loan is drawn for what property's mortgage interest is becoming quite complicated and time consuming. I guess that's why you have a book keeper/property manager to look after it for you! Otherwise, it can be a nightmare when it comes to determining the cost base when it is time to dispose the capital asset.

Yep I will put that in the prospectus "risk-free" quoting KennyJaiz next page a picture of a bloke on a big boat on a deckchair with a hot chick in bikini on either side and on the other page a guy teeing off on a oceanfront golf course, they will be queuing up to invest.
So you've seen my facebook profile. :p


Long term u need one as an outsider very hard to keep up with the ins and outs, policy changes etc and of course the little tricks that get picked up, my broker is a gun but he doesn't take new clients at this stage, I am sure some people on this forum could recommend a good one. PTBear and Rolf and others seem to know their stuff very well from my readings here but I have never met them and don't know who they are so current clients probably best to advise on that.
Thanks, I'll look into that!

I work full time, i don't really spend much time on my properties, my bookeeper in my business manages my properties for me as part of her job, she has full authority to deal with the agents and make decisions, i just don't want to know or be bothered with any of that stuff. She is 27 and has 6 Ip's of her own and I trust her completely. She has access to my bank accounts and she pays all the rates, body corp etc so I can do as little as possible
Sounds like you have a league of extraordinary entourage, which says a lot about you as an individual. I'm an impressed not only because you are successful, but more so, why you are successful. That I can certainly learn from.

Can't go wrong with that criteria, I also like old units in Brissy but if that is not your thing stick with the houses.
I'm a bit more hands on, so I do renovate and subdivide. I find large land (esp corner block) allows me to maximise my opportunities by adding value to the props. I intent to retire from my professional work and do full time development within the next 10 years.

Someone had a go at me about saying i was lucky so I will do same with you, you made informed decisions and acted on them, in effect made your own luck so well done.
Thanks for the kind words.
I believe in the fact that luck is simply preparedness meets opportunity. The harder/smarter I work, the luckier I get. I'm sure that's true for most.

One thing I can't agree with is the low doc loan comments, if i didn't go low doc i would have no investment properties so to say over the long term it is hard to make money doesn't wash with me. They have been a god send to me. If an investment property is not a good investment based on a 1%-2% rate differential then it is not a good investment in the first place. By that logic a property bought a year ago on a rate of 5.5% is now not a good investment because rates are now 6.5%, i would have been happy to be paying 25% interest rate to buy half of Melb 18 months ago and could refinance them all over to low doc 60%'s now at normal rates, it is a deal by deal decision and the cost of money is just one factor to consider in the big picture. If your cost is a bit higher than someone else's you just make up the ground in another area and there are plenty of ways to do that.

Ultimately, it is the results that are important to me, not the means. I assume Paul Do was trying to be the devil's advocate and be conservative for us. I appreciate his point of view. However, I think we can all agree that low doc loan has been an invaluable funding mechanism for responsible individuals. Each individual will have their own risk appetite. Some are willing to be a bit more risky than the other and demand for additional return to compensate for that extra risk. We will all need to make our own assessment of what level we are comfortable with and what opportunity cost we're putting on the line. Understand the consequences and manage it. I'm under 30 with a stable income. This is the time to take risk, so I am with you on this one.

Thank you for your contribution - enlightening as always.
 
I assume Paul Do was trying to be the devil's advocate and be conservative for us. I appreciate his point of view.

I'm not having a go at anyone or being conservative, just realistic.

Think of it this way. Say the total gross return on real estate over the long term is 11% p.a. and 9% p.a. net (after property manager's fee, rates, maintenance, insurance, etc).

Your profit is the gap between the return on assets and return on total funds employed.

If the long term interest rate is 8% p.a., then if you're paying 2% over this, you won't make any money.

Obviously you can be better than average, say make 13% p.a., but not everyone is better than average.

Also, I am talking about the long term. If you happen to get in at the bottom of a cycle, your returns over the next couple of years will be higher than the long term average, but then it will level out.

Obviously I try to achieve better than average returns - my strategy is about timing the market, but I plan for average returns and don't over extend myself.
 
I'm not having a go at anyone or being conservative, just realistic.

Think of it this way. Say the total gross return on real estate over the long term is 11% p.a. and 9% p.a. net (after property manager's fee, rates, maintenance, insurance, etc).

Your profit is the gap between the return on assets and return on total funds employed.

If the long term interest rate is 8% p.a., then if you're paying 2% over this, you won't make any money.

Obviously you can be better than average, say make 13% p.a., but not everyone is better than average.

Also, I am talking about the long term. If you happen to get in at the bottom of a cycle, your returns over the next couple of years will be higher than the long term average, but then it will level out.

Obviously I try to achieve better than average returns - my strategy is about timing the market, but I plan for average returns and don't over extend myself.

I understand where you are coming from, and your concerns are quite valid. Every individual will have to do their own cost and benefit analysis to determine if loc doc loan rate will provide a decent return. There are businesses willing to use credit at 18% p.a., or credit card at >20% p.a. As long as the ROI is sufficient, I don't think taking on the debt is an issue. I personally think your assumptions are a little bit too general and simplistic.
1, As you mentioned, not everyone expects market return (11% total gross return – I assume you mean ~7% capital + ~4% rental). I certainly don’t, neither do typical share investors expect normal market return. If they share investors simply want market return, then they can invest in index fund – there is no need to have their own portfolio. Property investors can also invest in property funds, you have the added liquidity with that!
2, Not everyone interested in property investment has a hands off approach. I like to add value to my properties via renovation, subdivision and development. That would give me beyond market rate return. How would I otherwise fund this?
3, +2% standard variable interest rate for low doc rate seems like an overstatement:
http://www.canstar.com.au/interest-rate-comparison/compare-low-doc-home-loan-rates.html

If you are talking about long term, then why does it matter if you buy at the bottom of the cycle or the top of the cycle? It will average out in the long term over a number of business cycles? I personally don’t like to speculate the market (mainly because I’m not very good at it). At different phase of the property clock (as the other members refer to), there are different characteristics and different sets of opportunity! Hot market will mean the capital gain will increase quickly over the short term, but competition is fierce, interest rate is higher and credit is tighter. At the top of the market, there little competition, interest rate is lower and credit is easier to obtain. (generally speaking).

You are absolutely right about not over-extending ourselves to get into the market. That is true for every type of investment. But there is no harm in extending ourselves to achieve goals that we are passionate about. It’s a fine balance, but I am the type who would rather die trying, especially early on in our lives.

Low doc will work for some, and won’t for other. It obviously worked wonders for Bigtone – don’t you agree?
 
2. Long term returns includes average gains from value add activities.

Obviously we all want to do things that will give us above average returns, including buying near the bottom of a cycle, positively add value, but by definition, half of us will achieve above average returns, and the other half below average returns.
 
2. Long term returns includes average gains from value add activities.

Obviously we all want to do things that will give us above average returns, including buying near the bottom of a cycle, positively add value, but by definition, half of us will achieve above average returns, and the other half below average returns.

If renovating, subdividing land and building a house will only achieve a 11% p.a. long term return (i.e. 7% capital growth and 4% rental return), then I must not be doing it right. Australian residiential properties have been doubling (on average) every 10 years (or 7.2% p.a.) for the last 60 years. While historical trend is not necessarily an accurate predictor, it is a fair indication. If we extrapolate that into the future, I would probably be better off not value adding...

Property investors is roughly around 1/3 of the property market. Majority of the home buyers are looking for a place to live, not for investment. Their decision making process is different, and profit making is not necessarily their main driver (e.g. lifestyle choices may have been a priority). In addition, only 1 out of 200 (or 0.5%) property investors have 5 investment properties or more (which is the catetory Bigtone and I belong to). I would like to think that is more attributed to our efforts as opposed to luck.

But anyway, that is not to take anything from what you mentioned. It's a personal preference, and it has proven to work for some (and obviously not for others).
 
Say you buy 100 of real estate. It generates 4 income, which is approximately 2 net, and 7 capital gains each year.

You fund this through equity and debt at a cost of say 8 a year.

Your profit is 1 a year. If your cost of funds is lower or your returns higher, this gap will be higher, but over the long term, it's much narrower than most people think.

Obviously over the short term this gap can be a big positive or a big negative in a given year, but over the long term, it's a small number. To improve your chances of success, you want to minimize your borrowing costs. On average, someone new to the property market (given current valuation levels, and hence future expected returns) who can't get a standard loan should seriously consider renting than buying.
 
my bookeeper in my business manages my properties for me as part of her job, she has full authority to deal with the agents and make decisions, i just don't want to know or be bothered with any of that stuff. She is 27 and has 6 Ip's of her own and I trust her completely.

Got her number handy? :p
 
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