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% credit growth maybe ?
ta
rof
good to see that someone sees the obvious
Whats does it actually represent in real dollars ?
The scale suggests a HUGE swing in prices.........which we know to not be correct.
On medians, anyone know the redn in house prices between Jan 07 and sep 08 ?
ta
rolf
ABS loans data is up to April, whereas that index is only showing to March.
Will house prices follow the trend?
It's represents the growth in the quarterly ABS housing index.what does the scale on the right indicate? if we move to -2 what happens? (or has happened)
is this weighted australia wide or just sydney?
No doubt, there will be some fools that say it wasn't possible to predict, probably they will come up with lame analogies like the following:And people will turn around and say that they didn't see it coming.
It doesn't represent a huge swing in prices, it represents a large swing in high positive growth to low negative growth. House price index (ABS, weighted average, national) peaked at 131.0 (March 08), bottom was 123.8 (March 2009), which is around a 5.5% fall. In my opinion unless we have government intervention (which saved us from a larger fall last time) then the coming fall will be greater and much longer in duration.The scale suggests a HUGE swing in prices.........which we know to not be correct.
On medians, anyone know the redn in house prices between Jan 07 and sep 08 ?
It doesn't represent a huge swing in prices, it represents a large swing in high positive growth to low negative growth. House price index (ABS, weighted average, national) peaked at 131.0 (March 08), bottom was 123.8 (March 2009), which is around a 5.5% fall. In my opinion unless we have government intervention (which saved us from a larger fall last time) then the coming fall will be greater and much longer in duration.
This should provide a link to the spreadsheet with figures.interesting those national numbers
The markets I am most familiar, being Sydney and Melbourne have shown at least moderate price growth in that time, with Brisbane maybe softening a little.
Assuming that those individual numbers are correct, what has tanked so "big" time to affect the index in such a way. Remembering that the majority of data would be coming out of the above 3 cities.
For those not away if you google the title "Housing nears the precipice" and follow that link you can get to the full article (without registering).Here's what Steve has to say:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ecipice-pd20100610-69RPH?OpenDocument&src=amm
Hi, at last, a sensible assessment, Neophyte!!
KY
There is certainly a lot more factors than these two (loans/prices), but fewer loans = fewer sales and in an environment where sellers need to get rid of property then it can most definitely lead to lower prices.If I read those charts correctly then most of you seem to be assuming causality between two things that are only co-incidentally correlated.
Number of loans should relate to number of properties transacted. This is completely independent of what the price is.
Buyers returned to the market mainly due to the introduction of the FHOG boost which allowed FHBs to leverage higher with up to an additional $140,000 purchasing power at a 95% lend (see my thread on the subject here).During the down-turn of mid-08 prices dropped, but also there was much lower volume to the market.
When prices rose again due to buyers returning to the market all of the sellers who had held off during the down-turn came back. We had high numbers of transactions.
http://blog.rpdata.com/?p=185Now that the extra sellers and buyers have worked through the system there is both less stock on the market and less buyers. This is only weakly related to prices. In fact the price rises still seen and drop in loans can be explained by decreased stock coming onto the market and there still be enough buyers to keep prices rising gradually.
Can you please point out the non-sensible posts in this thread and explain the reasons that they are not sensible?Hi, at last, a sensible assessment, Neophyte!!