Housing recovery hopes dashed

[MichaelW]

Yep. No worries.

At least I did say I know nothing about the market then. So the low was an intraday one? Silly me for not getting in in that one hour then?

See ya's.

Mate,

I might be suffering early dementia. Thought I better check my facts and the best I could turn up was a reference to an intra-day low of 3073 for the ASX200. Well above the 2700 I thought I remembered. Maybe that was an SPI level and not an XJO XAO level.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/is-the-bear-market-over-20090721-dr38.html

The ASX-200 hit an intraday low of 3073.10 on March 9.

Seems your memory is better than mine...

Cheers,
Michael

 

[ToDo]

To close this meaningless debate -

a. Yesterdays AFR front page: $42bn lost in earnings, EPS is down 21%. Very good reason to buy shares.

b.No sharemarket crash is over until investors develop disguist to shares. In that case any bears growing horns - is just another reason to worry.

c.And you are absolutely right Michael - All Ords are pegged much less to our economy than to Dow. What happens in US is much more important for ASX.

d. No share ever can provide a ROI of very average property on a long run. For that reason propaganda of inferior investments as shares on this forum is grossly inappropriate. There is no shortage of share investment forums where you can share your fantasies with more understanding audience.

 

[topcropper]

b.No sharemarket crash is over until investors develop disgust to shares. In that case any bears growing horns - is just another reason to worry.

.

So how much disgust do you need?



Lets look at two big ones.


CBA, got to $25 in March. This with earnings this year of $3.09 [during a recession] and a dividend of $2.28. CBA floated at $5.40 for flip sake. So anyone still holding from the float is getting about 40% fully franked dividend.

My oldies hold a heap from the float and I got some for $39 not that long ago.

I'd say investors were showing a fair amount of disgust in March 09.



BHP got to $20 in November. This when paying $1.01 FF dividend this year. Buying BHP at $20 would have made it positively geared, and I'm not sure if that has ever happened before.

BHP has turned a 10 k investment into 2.5 million in 42 years.

http://business.smh.com.au/business...good-thing-and-stick-to-it-20090828-f2gh.html

I got some for $24.88 on the 28th oct 2008 to add to all the $8 bhp's I have.

I'd say investors were showing a fair amount of disgust in Nov 08.


See ya's.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Why would I need to waste money on such a rubbish as shares?

dingdingding - the beast is exposed.

it's indifference? ignorance? misunderstanding? fear and loathing?

your opinionated pieces on the benefits of property over the sharemarket are now very moot. if you have a blind dislike for one and a strong like for the other then your are not arguing a point, you're just arguing until someone agrees with you to justify your (lack of) reasoning behind NOT buying in at 2700, 3200, 3500, 3750, 4000, 4200, 4450 ......

it's no different to me asking why on earth you would bother buying something, hassles with tenants and market swings, paying all that stamp duty, renovating, scheduling trades etc when i culd have taken the money you spent on renos and stamp duty alone, portfolio margined the SP500 with 24m puts and lived off the call income until it came time to roll up...?

why would i need to waste money on rubbish like buying and reno'ing ....?

 

[ToDo]

To have a valid argument you need three things:

1. Show me how you can beat ROI exceeding 370% in a less than a year.

2. Explain why every book or seminar on trading options always have section on stress management

3. Explain what you are doing on property investment forum if you can not be bothered investing in property

I given you an example of a house not because it is best property in a portfolio, simply because it has had recent comparable sale. Between October and December last year I have bought 54 properties with average return somewhat greater than in given example.

dingdingding - the beast is exposed.

it's indifference? ignorance? misunderstanding? fear and loathing?

your opinionated pieces on the benefits of property over the sharemarket are now very moot. if you have a blind dislike for one and a strong like for the other then your are not arguing a point, you're just arguing until someone agrees with you to justify your (lack of) reasoning behind NOT buying in at 2700, 3200, 3500, 3750, 4000, 4200, 4450 ......

it's no different to me asking why on earth you would bother buying something, hassles with tenants and market swings, paying all that stamp duty, renovating, scheduling trades etc when i culd have taken the money you spent on renos and stamp duty alone, portfolio margined the SP500 with 24m puts and lived off the call income until it came time to roll up...?

why would i need to waste money on rubbish like buying and reno'ing ....?

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi ToDo, can you find me a property 370% ROI within less than a year please? If you check back on the threads in March, you'd find that a few people, myself included saw better value in stocks then.

Not forgetting that these people are successful property investors, myself included, if I may be so lacking in humility to say so.

We can invest in both classes of assets and do well.

If you make a denigrating opinion and show very clearly that that opinion was formed from a position of total ignorance, then other people are going flay that position.

It was exactly the same as my sister warning me I was headed for financial disaster with my Adelaide properties [this was Nov 07]

KY

 

[ToDo]

Sorry, I am not a medical doctor I do not know how to treat share investment urges, especially if they appear on the second day after it is announced that earnings are down 21%. I also do not know how to treat the urge to argue with the investor who made more than 5 million while you were "seeing the value in share market", i.e. were buing into the sucker's rally. Normal people usually shut up and attempt to learn something.

Even in Adelaide you can get decent returns, but be careful investing into anything other than waterfront. With rail extending past Noarlunga even blind Freddy can see where the next hot spot is going to be.

Hi ToDo, can you find me a property 370% ROI within less than a year please? If you check back on the threads in March, you'd find that a few people, myself included saw better value in stocks then.

Not forgetting that these people are successful property investors, myself included, if I may be so lacking in humility to say so.

We can invest in both classes of assets and do well.

If you make a denigrating opinion and show very clearly that that opinion was formed from a position of total ignorance, then other people are going flay that position.

It was exactly the same as my sister warning me I was headed for financial disaster with my Adelaide properties [this was Nov 07]

KY

 

[topcropper]

Sorry, I am not a medical doctor I do not know how to treat share investment urges, especially if they appear on the second day after it is announced that earnings are down 21%. I also do not know how to treat the urge to argue with the investor who made more than 5 million while you were "seeing the value in share market", i.e. were buing into the sucker's rally. Normal people usually shut up and attempt to learn something.

.

So what's all this about ToDo..?? You made 5 million since the share rout and financial crisis..??

Great stuff then. I'm on this property forum to learn about resi property investing from all the experts. About all I know about is agriculture and not much else.

What about you tell us about how you made all this money then? Your just the person I'm on this forum to learn from.


See ya's.

 

[ToDo]

I already told you how - just in couple of previous posts.
It was not hard to figure it out unless you have troubles reading or using a calculator. I was buying properties when you were preaching property crash on this forum.

So what's all this about ToDo..?? You made 5 million since the share rout and financial crisis..??

Great stuff then. I'm on this property forum to learn about resi property investing from all the experts. About all I know about is agriculture and not much else.

What about you tell us about how you made all this money? Your just the person I'm on this forum to learn from.


See ya's.

 

[topcropper]

I already told you how - just in couple of previous posts.
It was not hard to figure it out unless you have troubles reading or using a calculator. I was buying properties when you were preaching property crash on this forum.

Did you post on here briefly as 'essence'.? You sound similar to him/her?



See ya's.

 

[jaimeandrenee]

i love this thread

 

[sash]

Do tell in detail please....you have my interest up!

Let me tell you I have properties in the double digits....and I thought I was experienced...but it seems like you can teach me a thing or two...

For the record my largest gain over a 3 year period to date has been about 55%...

I already told you how - just in couple of previous posts.
It was not hard to figure it out unless you have troubles reading or using a calculator. I was buying properties when you were preaching property crash on this forum.

 

[ToDo]

Do tell in detail please....you have my interest up!

Let me tell you I have properties in the double digits....and I thought I was experienced...but it seems like you can teach me a thing or two...

For the record my largest gain over a 3 year period to date has been about 55%...

Thanks,

I guess your 55% gain was on value/price. Please count your gain on your investment (like sahre investors do). What you actually spent out of your pocket - deposit, duties, legals, renos - you did not pay the full price for your property, did you? I think it takes extreme bad luck to get less than 80% ROI pa from property.

 

[sash]

If you put it that way.....

I spent 170K in 2006 for the property 12K costs plus 17K deposit for a total of 29k.

The property is now worth about 260K.

SO the ROI is about 46%......80% is way to high!

As I am curious about your 80% deals...can you please give examples of your deals...or this the one you reported just a once off??

So minus the

Thanks,

I guess your 55% gain was on value/price. Please count your gain on your investment (like sahre investors do). What you actually spent out of your pocket - deposit, duties, legals, renos - you did not pay the full price for your property, did you? I think it takes extreme bad luck to get less than 80% ROI pa from property.

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, like Sash, I'm curious not to say sceptical as well. We can report good returns ROI or otherwise.

I'll add my numbers to the mix. 3 years total cost $980000. Total value realised & not = $1300000 total gain = $320000 before tax = 32.6%

Loan = $890000 my contribution = 90000 ROI = 350%

ToDo is right about the ROI but that particular property was bought in 05.

The 06 one is probably about 400% ROI

But in 07 and 08 I couldn't find such honeys.

Ergo, in the stock mkt from March to August, $24000 off $106000 = 23.58% x 3.5 = 82.5% ROI

ToDo, I've to withdraw my scepticism about the ROI numbers you referred to. Explains why we're property afficionados.

But you might want to reconsider your stance re shares. It's a more flexible asset to use especially for people with little capital.

KY

 

[steveadl]

I like property and equities Todo. Not sure why you think good returns can't be made in shares, especially over the last few months when we've been seeing the bluest of bluechips being smacked down by market sentiment allowing brilliant yields and (what may now seem obvious after the fact, but people were too scared) great growth potential.

I loaded up heavily into these, and if you want an example of shares to compare to your house purchase last year:

Invested some $k's of my own cash (the rest borrowed) over the last 9-10 months into the market. Have since paid myself some $k's of that back through cash dividends (circa 12%), reinvested some more $k's through DRP's, and am still sitting on cap gain of 200% of my original cash investment as of values 10mins ago. And these shares cost me pretty much nothing to hold after dividends and tax deduction.

Not sure why you think property is better than shares? Depends on way too many variables to make sweeping statements.

 

[ToDo]

Let me guess - Adelaide - Davoren Park? Followed steps of Margaret Lomas?
Or even unit in Liverpool?

Sorry, this type of things is not what I would ever consider buying. I ran away in disguist after being in Davoren Park for about 5 minutes. But the next day I have bought 2 storey house on the Esplanade in Seaford for $290K. Valued $950K today.

If you put it that way.....

I spent 170K in 2006 for the property 12K costs plus 17K deposit for a total of 29k.

The property is now worth about 260K.

SO the ROI is about 46%......80% is way to high!

As I am curious about your 80% deals...can you please give examples of your deals...or this the one you reported just a once off??

So minus the

 

[kum yin lau]

Hi, it's not very nice to denigrate what other people do, or buy.

I'll hazard 2 guesses. 1) You'll not get 950 thousand if you put your Seaford Esplanade house on the market tomorrow. 2) That you didn't buy it last year nor the year before last.

KY

 

[ToDo]

Hi, it's not very nice to denigrate what other people do, or buy.

I'll hazard 2 guesses. 1) You'll not get 950 thousand if you put your Seaford Esplanade house on the market tomorrow. 2) That you didn't buy it last year nor the year before last.

KY

I thought we were talking 2006. And I am not aiming to offend anyone. I am just being concise due to lack of time.

 

[sash]

Errr...wrong!

I will be concise...I evaluated these areas....and did not run in disgust. Instead I like you formed the opinion the properties in Davoren Park were not for me...though there are other people who made a killing. So unless you have a portfolio and business assets like Margaret Lomas....criticism would be premature.

Let me know the year you bought in Seaford and I will look on RP data to see if a sale was made for 290K...somehow...I don't think that was possible in the last 3-4 years.

Also.....your lack of time ...reading between the lines ....somehow tells me I smell cow manure! Usually someone how has established what you claim to have achieved will go to details as this sort of deal would be their pride and joy!

All the best......in your future endeavours. You look like you will need it!

Let me guess - Adelaide - Davoren Park? Followed steps of Margaret Lomas?
Or even unit in Liverpool?

Sorry, this type of things is not what I would ever consider buying. I ran away in disguist after being in Davoren Park for about 5 minutes. But the next day I have bought 2 storey house on the Esplanade in Seaford for $290K. Valued $950K today.