Most property investors & bullish news articles would have you believe that we have a housing shortage in Australia, however some figures that I've put together tonight would indicate that we may actually have an oversupply.
The figures indicate there is an oversupply of 430,000 dwellings (calculated using 20 years data), enough to fit an extra 1.1 million people. Even taking into account the recent 4 year shortage (where demand has outstripped NEW supply) there is no way that I can see we have a shortage of housing in Australia.
The table doesn't take into account everything, like housing that's demolished and not replaced by new and also assumes there wasn't a shortage in 1990, but other than that would love to see you guys challenge the figures with hard evidence (or agree that there is no shortage )!
Note: Apart from dwelling approvals, the numbers represent # of people.
# provided for figure calculated by multiplying approvals by .77 (assuming 15% replacement of old stock, 8% 2nd homes), multiplied by 2.6 (average person per dwelling). Compiled using ABS data. Final half of 2009 (pop growth) calculated by doubling first half as ABS figures not yet available.
The figures indicate there is an oversupply of 430,000 dwellings (calculated using 20 years data), enough to fit an extra 1.1 million people. Even taking into account the recent 4 year shortage (where demand has outstripped NEW supply) there is no way that I can see we have a shortage of housing in Australia.
The table doesn't take into account everything, like housing that's demolished and not replaced by new and also assumes there wasn't a shortage in 1990, but other than that would love to see you guys challenge the figures with hard evidence (or agree that there is no shortage )!
Note: Apart from dwelling approvals, the numbers represent # of people.
# provided for figure calculated by multiplying approvals by .77 (assuming 15% replacement of old stock, 8% 2nd homes), multiplied by 2.6 (average person per dwelling). Compiled using ABS data. Final half of 2009 (pop growth) calculated by doubling first half as ABS figures not yet available.
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