How is it going to end ?

From: See Change


My personal thoughts, along with many people in the forum is that the sydney market is going through a high point of the property cycle at the moment , with properties going for well over reserves etc ( similar to a share market "blow off top " )

My question, for those who have been around longer than me , is How is it going to end ?

In previous reversals did the market gradually die down or did it stop suddenly due to a single ( or several ) bits of bad news ?

happy investing see change
 
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Reply: 1
From: H T


in tears...

HT
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: See Change


hehe

there's one in every crowd

Happy investing see change
 
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Reply: 1.1.1
From: Robert Forward


And once that hits then the new government will say "due to the real situation we were unaware of we will have to brake election promises..."

Well it may not happen but who wants to take a bet on it....

Cheers
Robert
 
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Reply: 1.1.2
From: JustAMum B


Isn't it interesting that your worst case scenario is 'just stop' (not fall).

I think you are right, it will, at some point stop (only the tip of the market will get the fall). Then, - no - , AS interest rates rise those too highly geared are going to feel the squeeze. Hang on tight to your flying ropes, steady as she goes, the cycle will go round. A property wisely brought now, and with the appropriate gearing to your income (or the properties income) will be an investment you will be happy with. But then - am I qualified to be listened to?
Just A Mum
 
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Reply: 1.1.2.1
From: Sergey Golovin



They are saying that Australian economy will hold for another year or two, but the other once specially Japanese and American might pull it down with'm.

They had problem with Thailand economy couple of years ago and Wall Street Market stoped for while. Japanese economy is 42 times large then Thailand's.

Who knows?
Keep look out, I guess.

Serge.
 
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Reply: 1.1.2.1.1
From: H T


Yep I've been doing some research on Japan, and not so long ago - a few years, they had building assets depreciate by 90%, yep 90%.
The banks are stuffed 'cause they cant foreclose on poor liu whoo whose 1mill aus "house" is now worth 100k. Imagine doing that sought of dough.
Japan was the second largest economy and now with its larger proportion than the rest of the worlds baby boomers coming up to retirement, they are in trouble...may hit us too!!!

HT
 
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Reply: 1.1.2.1.1.1
From: Dale Gatherum-Goss


HI

Have you read Harry Dent's books? He goes into quite a bit of detail of what we may expect over the next 10 years as a result of the aging population beginning to retire, amongst other things.

I recommend it to you.

Dale
 
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Reply: 1.1.2.1.1.1.1
From: Terry Avery


Hi Dale,

I have read Harry Dent's books and what he proposes is very interesting. His
prediction of the Japanese economy is spot on and I, for one, will be
looking at investing there in 2010. He did not predict the tech boom and
bust however that was not driven by demographics but by the madness of
crowds. I think there is a lot of value in thinking about the underlying
population trends which seem to have supported the American economy and thus
has flow on effects to ours and look for investment opportunities. I suspect
that those who get set now will do better than those who wait until 2005,
when the first baby boomers hit retirement age.

Cheers

Terry
 
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