How low will the ASX go?
- Thread starter bene313
- Start date
will be good buying if so, hopefully have enuff $$$$ to get some good buys.
Regards,
RH
Just had a look @ The chart it went to 41XX is May then bounced back
Regards,
RH
Just had a look @ The chart it went to 41XX is May then bounced back
I would not just make the call just yet,some day traders i talk too think prior too the lead up too the "RED-HEADS" re election this market will drop into the 3400-3700 levels,unless the deal is done with several high end miners,if you have the cash backup short all the banks a 3 miners,"IMHO"on the ASX 80%OF THE MONEY MADE IS MADE BY 20%
THE REST WILL GET BLOWN OUT THE BACK DOOR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS..""IMHO"..WILLAIR..
BTW 48%OF ALL TOTAL ASX HOLDINGS ARE HELD BY SUPER FUNDS
5
I would not just make the call just yet,some day traders i talk too think prior too the lead up too the "RED-HEADS" re election this market will drop into the 3400-3700 levels,unless the deal is done with several high end miners,if you have the cash backup short all the banks a 3 miners,"IMHO"on the ASX 80%OF THE MONEY MADE IS MADE BY 20%
THE REST WILL GET BLOWN OUT THE BACK DOOR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS..""IMHO"..WILLAIR..
BTW 48%OF ALL TOTAL ASX HOLDINGS ARE HELD BY SUPER FUNDS
5
That's worse than a Grossreal reply
Can you say again in plain english?
Not sure how low it will go. S&P 500 has closed at 1031 below it's 200 day moving average of 1040. Most technical analysts are predicting if S&P500 stays below 1040 for another session or two we could see it drop few more % for sure until the next support is reached. From memory it was around 980-985???
The general consensus is volatility to continue with more downside risk for next two months (till August). And the next bull run to commence from Sept. once the corporate earning season is in full swing. The main risk is if a lot of companies start issuing profit downgrades between now and time they officially report.
Yesterday, I heard in news that the chance of a double dip recession is pretty slim for US. Looking back at previous 50 recessions US had only 1 turned into a double dip recession and that too was in the late 1800s.
So yes you can argue that it is a good time to be buying good solid companies with sound fundamentals. I am doing it myself
Cheers,
Oracle.
The general consensus is volatility to continue with more downside risk for next two months (till August). And the next bull run to commence from Sept. once the corporate earning season is in full swing. The main risk is if a lot of companies start issuing profit downgrades between now and time they officially report.
Yesterday, I heard in news that the chance of a double dip recession is pretty slim for US. Looking back at previous 50 recessions US had only 1 turned into a double dip recession and that too was in the late 1800s.
So yes you can argue that it is a good time to be buying good solid companies with sound fundamentals. I am doing it myself
Cheers,
Oracle.
Nothing wrong with the way Grossreal posts i can understand his post 100% and it pays to read everyone because i learn something ever time "GR"POSTS,myself i only went to grade 10 in a public school and English is not my best,but in simple terms the average difference between soap box forecasters with an interest to helping you invest yours or "OPM" is thisThat's worse than a Grossreal reply
Can you say again in plain english?
a stand-alone day trader will have significantly less errors over a 12week span,or a soap box guru tells the 500 people in front of them to find 750k,spread it over several units holding like bhp-cba-highend volume equities and milk the div's cv and franking and hope in five years time the company is not belly-up ,if that's a plan good luck,imho we are in for a "ASX" freefall and my entry levels are set in the mid 3600's..imho..willair..
i said if it dropped past 4200 i'd short.
and i'm glad i'm sitting - itchy trigger finger now. looks bloody dismal.
and i'm glad i'm sitting - itchy trigger finger now. looks bloody dismal.
Nothing wrong with the way Grossreal posts i can understand his post 100% and it pays to read everyone because i learn something ever time "GR"POSTS,myself i only went to grade 10 in a public school and English is not my best,but in simple terms the average difference between soap box forecasters with an interest to helping you invest yours or "OPM" is this
find 750k,spread it over several units holding like bhp-cba-highend volume equities and milk the div's cv and franking and hope in five years time the company is not belly-up ,if that's a plan good luck,imho we are in for a "ASX" freefall and my entry levels are set in the mid 3600's..imho..willair..
Actually their is a problem with the way GR posts, its terribly hard to understand. You won't actually get smarter by trying to structure your posts like his.
Now in saying that i think he is very smart, just the delivery of his posts is really hard to understand
But yeah the soap box guru you refer to is like the agents trying to flogg of the plan residential property. I am hoping the companys i have shares in don't go belly up lol
Quite a few calling a head and shoulders on the S&P with the 1040 mark broken a move to 865 is likely...they could be right, but I particularly like the signals that this blog shows which indicates we are probably in oversold territory and due for a bounce (at least the US is):
http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2010/06/market-too-oversold-to-press-short-side.html
What effect will this have on property. Not sure how many people can stomach another big fall in the share portfolios or super.
Just make sure you don't wait too long before you jump in (If that is your intention).
Remember, when everyone is making money in the stock market and everything is being painted rosy and start hearing that things are different this time around, you know that we are in a bubble.
So IMHO, the best time to get into the stock market is not when the majority of the ppl think it is because they have seen stocks going up and up and seem to think it can only go in one direction.
Cheers,
Oracle.
Make up your mind. We "definitely will" or we "could". "Could definitely" is a contradiction in terms.
I would jump in now as I consider it more safer compared to jumping in when the ASX was at 6800.
Just like property I am in the share market for the long term, letting dividends compound over time. Fortunately, I am still relatively young and can afford to start again if I had to. But I am making every effort to not have to start all over again
Cheers,
Oracle.
Guys let me just state for the record, that i have NEVER seen a more dangerous time in the sharemarket (and this is with more than 15 years of investment experience in equity markets).
Why do i say this?
(a) the degree of shock to the traditional share holder as been huge. They have been shaken to the core, all the 'traditional beliefs' that have been fed to them is disolving in front of their eyes.
(b) the traditional funds management industry, and superannuation industry are now under pressure to find 'alternative means of achieving performance'.
Now what do these two factors mean?
There is less weight of stable money in the market. Stable money is very important. It provides the foundation. Its all very well and good for traders/hedge funds etc to provide 'efficiency and depth' to the market, so long as they are only peripheral players (ie the weight of their money is very small compared to the weight of the stable money).
But the relative weight of these components is altering towards the unstable components (trading/hedge funds), i dont mean 50/50 or anything like that, just the weight is moving from the historical norm.
the result of this is increased market chaos, and increased removal of share prices from their fundamentals.
Some of the traders on this forum have identified that a 'share price' doesnt reflect a company, there are too many other factors. In the short term i have partially agreed with this, i am moving towards a 'heavier' agreement of this in the current environment.
There is DEFINATELY money to be made in this environment.
The old market phrase: in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine, has never been more true.
The way to play this market is to take a longer term view.
However anyone in this market is going to need balls of steel.
This market is quite capable of dropping 20%(or more) from current levels, not because of fundamentals, but because of the effect of hot money moving around (and in todays term hot money is not long only money, it can also be shorting money).
So how can a 'retail investor' take advantage of this situation:
(a) DO NOT USE ANY FORM OF DEBT (i will talk about this in another post)
(b) i suggest either a constant month to month direct investment into index funds (but only during times of market uncertainty, in otherwords, when there is fear in the market, activate the monthly contribution, when markets trend up, cease that contribution), or alternatively into some traditional active funds management companies (but only large)
(c) i am not sure how to give an opinion on direct share exposure in the current environment. I have tried to highlight how i invest, but my method takes time (and also some experience in analysing company accounts, this is not for everyone).
I will try to type more later, but i have alot of work at the moment.
Why do i say this?
(a) the degree of shock to the traditional share holder as been huge. They have been shaken to the core, all the 'traditional beliefs' that have been fed to them is disolving in front of their eyes.
(b) the traditional funds management industry, and superannuation industry are now under pressure to find 'alternative means of achieving performance'.
Now what do these two factors mean?
There is less weight of stable money in the market. Stable money is very important. It provides the foundation. Its all very well and good for traders/hedge funds etc to provide 'efficiency and depth' to the market, so long as they are only peripheral players (ie the weight of their money is very small compared to the weight of the stable money).
But the relative weight of these components is altering towards the unstable components (trading/hedge funds), i dont mean 50/50 or anything like that, just the weight is moving from the historical norm.
the result of this is increased market chaos, and increased removal of share prices from their fundamentals.
Some of the traders on this forum have identified that a 'share price' doesnt reflect a company, there are too many other factors. In the short term i have partially agreed with this, i am moving towards a 'heavier' agreement of this in the current environment.
There is DEFINATELY money to be made in this environment.
The old market phrase: in the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long term a weighing machine, has never been more true.
The way to play this market is to take a longer term view.
However anyone in this market is going to need balls of steel.
This market is quite capable of dropping 20%(or more) from current levels, not because of fundamentals, but because of the effect of hot money moving around (and in todays term hot money is not long only money, it can also be shorting money).
So how can a 'retail investor' take advantage of this situation:
(a) DO NOT USE ANY FORM OF DEBT (i will talk about this in another post)
(b) i suggest either a constant month to month direct investment into index funds (but only during times of market uncertainty, in otherwords, when there is fear in the market, activate the monthly contribution, when markets trend up, cease that contribution), or alternatively into some traditional active funds management companies (but only large)
(c) i am not sure how to give an opinion on direct share exposure in the current environment. I have tried to highlight how i invest, but my method takes time (and also some experience in analysing company accounts, this is not for everyone).
I will try to type more later, but i have alot of work at the moment.
THE PROBLEMS WITH USING DEBT FINANCE
Today i offloaded $100k of stocks, stocks that i had researched and was confident of my valuations (but the least confident out of the portfolio).
This has cost me around $5k in realised losses
Why?
because i have a margin loan, now i am a long way from having any headaches about getting a margin call.
However as i have said, if you use debt in the stock market you cannot be an ostrich, just because i think something is 'value' doesnt mean that i am protected from the market in the short term.
The S&P has just broken to the downside, one of its key supports (1045 or 1035) both have relevance. The next key downside support is not for another 10%+ downside.
Hang on a moment i hear you say, isnt intrinsic value a fundamental investor? why is he worrying about these things?
because i use margin debt, i am VERY confident, in my company selection (so far with the number of profit warnings comming out, i am not exposed to a single one of them)
The point is that although this market may be 'cheap' it doesnt mean it cant get cheaper.
So basically i am being proactive here, my number one priority is to live and fight another day.
Today i offloaded $100k of stocks, stocks that i had researched and was confident of my valuations (but the least confident out of the portfolio).
This has cost me around $5k in realised losses
Why?
because i have a margin loan, now i am a long way from having any headaches about getting a margin call.
However as i have said, if you use debt in the stock market you cannot be an ostrich, just because i think something is 'value' doesnt mean that i am protected from the market in the short term.
The S&P has just broken to the downside, one of its key supports (1045 or 1035) both have relevance. The next key downside support is not for another 10%+ downside.
Hang on a moment i hear you say, isnt intrinsic value a fundamental investor? why is he worrying about these things?
because i use margin debt, i am VERY confident, in my company selection (so far with the number of profit warnings comming out, i am not exposed to a single one of them)
The point is that although this market may be 'cheap' it doesnt mean it cant get cheaper.
So basically i am being proactive here, my number one priority is to live and fight another day.
