How much puff does Sydney have left?

How much growth does Sydney have left this cycle?


  • Total voters
    77
  • Poll closed .
While I stopped buying in Sydney more than a year ago, I still reckon it's got some steam left in this cycle and am curious to hear what others think.

This is part of a learning process for me; a combination of analysing data and trends (local, national and international), observing investor and general public sentiment, media discussion etc and ultimately comparing my predictions--and those of others--with reality down the track.

I'm going to boldly suggest another 15% left before things flatten off around mid/end 2016.

Naturally, this will be dependent on rate movements and APRA/legislative changes.

Votes on this poll are public and voting closes in 30 days.
 
The APRA will take some time to flow through. I bet some investors aren't even aware of it and will only find out when they've handed a new contract to their brokers. If we imagine a 6 month lead time that puts us around Xmas. I think Xmas will be the last hurrah.
 
I think there is still a room to go up in syd. market always keep going up when majority think its going to drop.

it crashes when everyone thinks its going to go up. (eg goldcoast) it only crashed when nobody see it happening

also weaker Australian dollars increase in foreign investment.

in say all that above Sydney is not a market that I will invest in at the moment due to the low yield and high entry cost.
 
In my view, the frenzy will cool in Sydney by Christmas this year, giving us another 5% at least.
I think there'll be slow and steady growth after that.
I don't think the growth will stop or plateau yet. Our economy will be perceived to be strong and stable again by this time next year with education, tourism and hospitality etc. all back on board and thriving again, bringing unemployment rates down. The APRA changes will have become apparent. These 2 factors combined will give FHB and other modest types a chance to look around in a calmer atmosphere.
The most affordable properties will continue to grow but at a steadier pace than they are now. These gains will flow up to the medium priced properties. I suspect that the top-end will keep being bought and sold as well.
 
While I stopped buying in Sydney more than a year ago, I still reckon it's got some steam left in this cycle and am curious to hear what others think.

This is part of a learning process for me; a combination of analysing data and trends (local, national and international), observing investor and general public sentiment, media discussion etc and ultimately comparing my predictions--and those of others--with reality down the track.

I'm going to boldly suggest another 15% left before things flatten off around mid/end 2016.

Naturally, this will be dependent on rate movements and APRA/legislative changes.

Votes on this poll are public and voting closes in 30 days.

I'd say it's got another 10% in the tank in this cycle.
One if the keys will be jobs. It will start to really slow when jobs growth happens more in other places Rather than in Sydney. Hasn't really happened yet hence healthy demand with low supply resulting in strong appreciation of prices.
 
I'm in the 25% plus camp but circa 25% only now not 30% as I was predicting 3 months ago and 40% I was predicting 6 to 9 months ago. My feelings are circa end of 2016 as believe we need three interest rate rises to kill the market dead as in the 2003/2004 boom.
 
My feelings are circa end of 2016 as believe we need three interest rate rises to kill the market dead as in the 2003/2004 boom.

Given the intensity of the boom this time around, overall indebtedness, and APRA crackdowns, I feel that the first hint of a rate rise will kill the market dead.

I'm thinking mid 2016.
 
Not sure, but plenty of puff on SS on this topic, I reckon another 6 months, just change the wording, we just keep regurgitating it:p

Mtr
 
My crystal ball isn't working, but at a guess, I think we might see another 6 months. What percentage that turns out to be is anyone's guess.
 
Absolutely know idea to be honest, I'm happy for all the SSers who have made great gains but from a self interest point of view I wish it would slow down a little. Without it slowing regulators will have to act more assertively which will hurt everyone including those markets on life support. For good or bad the anti NG brigade is growing
 
I'd suggest ~8-10% more growth, to occur across the next twelve months or so. By December 2016, I'd imagine we'd see a flattening. Curious timing if I'm right; because right about the same time Dec 2016 rolls around, so too does a glut of OTP pop on to the market. I wonder what things will look like if those two events occur at the same nexus...
 
I'd suggest ~8-10% more growth, to occur across the next twelve months or so. By December 2016, I'd imagine we'd see a flattening. Curious timing if I'm right; because right about the same time Dec 2016 rolls around, so too does a glut of OTP pop on to the market. I wonder what things will look like if those two events occur at the same nexus...

I think a few years from now you may be able to snag a bargain.
 
it's pretty difficult to be neg geared in this environment! and get's better every time rates are cut

That's true, my concern is that any further rate cuts will over stimulate new developments everywhere and too many people will be looking to buy leading to decreasing rents. Probably not a problem in Sydney where the barriers to entry are much higher though
 
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