How much puff does Sydney have left?

How much growth does Sydney have left this cycle?


  • Total voters
    77
  • Poll closed .
Yes, I think that's possible. It was already at $946K in April, and probably $960K now. It will be over a million by the end of 2015. Then I think another 20% over 2016 and early 2017 is quite likely, or more if the RBA cuts rates again. So far this boom hasn't even been as big as the late 90s - early 2000s boom, when prices more than doubled in six years. During that boom, the strongest growth came at the end.

Isn't the sydney dwelling median still 800k or so? Only house median is 950k isn't it?

Not quite accurate to quote the house figure instead of overall dwelling when that's what everyone else uses
 
Isn't the sydney dwelling median still 800k or so? Only house median is 950k isn't it?

Not quite accurate to quote the house figure instead of overall dwelling when that's what everyone else uses
Yes, I was referring to the median house price.
 
I'm revising my 10% forecast to about 12-15% for sydney as the us posted stronger than expected job growth overnight, sending the local dollar down and further pressure on the federal reserve to hike, which will send the aussie further down.
 
That's cherry picking imo, some people reading your post might think you're referring to overall sydney dwelling pricss

I doubt it.

I said... 'I voted for another 25%'

Then MTR said 'So where do you see median for Syd in 2017..?. 1.2m'

Clearly MTR was referring to house prices, since those are the type of dwellings that would be on track to hit $1.2m after another 25% increase (current median house price is ($946K).

Another 25% increase would not bring unit prices to $1.2M.

So my response was not 'cherry picked' - it was simply a response to MTR who clearly understood that the Sydney median house price is currently around $946K and a 25% increase to bring it close to $1.2M.

But if there was any ambiguity among people with less knowledge of the Sydney property market, then it has been cleared up now. Thanks.
 
I doubt it.

I said... 'I voted for another 25%'

Then MTR said 'So where do you see median for Syd in 2017..?. 1.2m'

Clearly MTR was referring to house prices, since those are the type of dwellings that would be on track to hit $1.2m after another 25% increase (current median house price is ($946K).

Another 25% increase would not bring unit prices to $1.2M.

So my response was not 'cherry picked' - it was simply a response to MTR who clearly understood that the Sydney median house price is currently around $946K and a 25% increase to bring it close to $1.2M.

But if there was any ambiguity among people with less knowledge of the Sydney property market, then it has been cleared up now. Thanks.

I'm with Shadow and going for a circa 1.3 million house median although this figure is based on the 'Lets Hype the Sydney Market' thread which is circa about $100k ahead of where ever this median (946k) is coming from.

I'm more confident of this happening as the NSW Government is kicking so many goals and turning Sydney back into a great joint again. So much stuff happening and in the pipeline. Remember Sydney is landlocked so anyone with some dirt in Sydney now are going to benefit humungusly. So many things lined up for this boom in Sydney.

Am of the belief that the median will move back 10 to 15% after the boom though so will settle at circa $1,150,000.
 
I'm revising my 10% forecast to about 12-15% for sydney as the us posted stronger than expected job growth overnight, sending the local dollar down and further pressure on the federal reserve to hike, which will send the aussie further down.

If the US hikes, the RBA won't hike any more.

If you want property to go up, you would actually hope the US doesn't hike.
 
oh I thought we were talking about median dwelling, not median house. But I don't obsess over these numbers too much anyway as I find them completely detached from reality
 
For my records, as it stands:

-26% to 0% has 21.4% of votes
1% to 14% has 62.9% of votes*
15% or more has 15.7% of votes

I look forward to seeing what eventuates.

* 54% of votes are between 2-10%
 
If the US hikes, the RBA won't hike any more.

If you want property to go up, you would actually hope the US doesn't hike.



The net effects of the A$ dropping as a result of US raise [ assuming RBA does nothing] will result in less $ going into shares [ including ASX 200] and more into property, thereby raising prices.
 
Shares become equally cheaper in US dollar terms. Why would someone buy properties over shares if all you're talking about is currency? Not to mention foreigners can't buy properties.
 
Shares become equally cheaper in US dollar terms. Why would someone buy properties over shares if all you're talking about is currency? Not to mention foreigners can't buy properties.

ASX200 has a very strong correlation with US indicies.

An increase in US rates results in US indicies decreasing, which results in the ASX 200 decreasing. This lower trend on the ASX200 will discourage investors from investing in the share market. Assuming that the RBA will not raise, may even decrease, investors have not many good alternatives [ not the bank, not gold, etc]- A good bet would be the property market. Im talking about local investors predominantly.
 
Here are my thoughts:

We have hit the peak in Sydney....

Why???....

1. The banks will tighten the reins on the investors...and this will cut supply in Sydney in particular. However, this will pose a new found benefit Melbourne Outer suburbs, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide...as investors find they can borrow less and move to these markets. This will cut demand dramatically...and supply will increase as a result....

2. Interest rates will probably rise from Q2 2016.

3. The Chinese govt is tightening the money supply coming out of China....they have caught on that some of the money is laundered. Not all but quite a bit has not had tax paid.

4. Rental yields in Sydney are dismall.

5. The share market will start looking more attractive again...look at the number of companies with 5% yields.
 
Here are my thoughts:

We have hit the peak in Sydney....

Why???....

1. The banks will tighten the reins on the investors...and this will cut supply in Sydney in particular. However, this will pose a new found benefit Melbourne Outer suburbs, Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide...as investors find they can borrow less and move to these markets. This will cut demand dramatically...and supply will increase as a result....

2. Interest rates will probably rise from Q2 2016.

3. The Chinese govt is tightening the money supply coming out of China....they have caught on that some of the money is laundered. Not all but quite a bit has not had tax paid.

4. Rental yields in Sydney are dismall.

5. The share market will start looking more attractive again...look at the number of companies with 5% yields.

1. Hasn't stopped owner occupiers going in and buying up :). Other than Bankwest, the brokers i've been speaking to have pretty much said it's been lip service from banks to APRA and there's barely been a change in lending...

2. So interest rate rises in a years time will stop a market now? Since when? And if it rises it takes us back to the rates we were at earlier this year unless you expect a huge rise, which I can't see happening with this economy...

3. Chinese buyers have increased and will continue to increase with our dollar softening. They're buying more and more. If they stop buying in Sydney they stop everywhere. There's actually been a massive increase in chinese buyers in NW growth centre in Sydney

4. Depends where. There's a specific region still yielding 5.5-6%.

5. I've got no clue about the share market haha
 
Last edited:
Hmmmm....based on your handle.....you are 26 years old correct?

Next question...how many down turns in the Sydney market have you seen play out?

In relation to the posts:

1. Really....you are listening to brokers about banks and APRA...lets say that I have senior level contacts within the banks and they are concerned about a contagion and asset quality....you will see this play it initially in the Big 4 and associated entities (i.e. BW, BoM, BoSA, STG) and then move down to the smaller lenders.

2. Never said the market will stop now. But ask the question....the market is based on psychology...what will happen when the news papers report someone paid 800k for a 2brm apartment based on a IR of 4.5% with a settlement date of say 2017-2018. Repayments on 4.5% will be 40k pa...repayments on 7.5% will be 65k....and then god forbid always what happens if the valuation comes in at 650k for the apartment?? Bankruptcy?...a few stories like this will panic the natives.

3. Yep....lambs to a slaughter....they have no idea of the Australian market fundamentals. Happened with the Japanese in the 80s...sadly looks like it will happen again. The party never goes for ever. The NW is severely over valued...look at what happened to Kellyville in the 2004-2007 down turn.

4. Yes some regions of NSW are okay just now Sydney. Newcastle is ok..so is places like Albury...Wagga Wagga...etc.

5. Pay attention to share market...some opportunities opening up....

1. Hasn't stopped owner occupiers going in and buying up :). Other than Bankwest, the brokers i've been speaking to have pretty much said it's been lip service from banks to APRA and there's barely been a change in lending...

2. So interest rate rises in a years time will stop a market now? Since when? And if it rises it takes us back to the rates we were at earlier this year unless you expect a huge rise, which I can't see happening with this economy...

3. Chinese buyers have increased and will continue to increase with our dollar softening. They're buying more and more. If they stop buying in Sydney they stop everywhere. There's actually been a massive increase in chinese buyers in NW growth centre in Sydney

4. Depends where. There's a specific region still yielding 5.5-6%.



5. I've got no clue about the share market haha
 
If it were to play out as you say, it seems to me that new OTP apartments may be the ones to keep an eye on. That may be where you may see some of the most aggressive discounting.

Unfortunately for me I hate new modern skyscrapers. They are small, build quality is generally rubbish and the sheer volume detracts from any sense of community. I'd take a solid / old red brick over one any day of the week. Bigger proportions, better build quality...can't go wrong.
 
You hit the nail on the head...this is how most of the Australian population thinks....most of the skyscrapers go to overseas buyers....they are buying what they see as ideal in their homeland.

Whereas here...the value is in low rise units, houses, villas and townhouses.

If it were to play out as you say, it seems to me that new OTP apartments may be the ones to keep an eye on. That may be where you may see some of the most aggressive discounting.

Unfortunately for me I hate new modern skyscrapers. They are small, build quality is generally rubbish and the sheer volume detracts from any sense of community. I'd take a solid / old red brick over one any day of the week. Bigger proportions, better build quality...can't go wrong.
 
That being said, there are a few that I'll be keeping an eye on as they are in areas I really like. I'm willing to compromise if the discount is big enough:)

But I think I would only consider something relatively small, like 10-15 stories. Those 30-80 level behemoths are just terrible. Yuck.
 
Back
Top