How much steam does Sydney have left?

How much growth does Sydney have left (as at Feb 2015)

  • QUICK. SELL EVERYTHING! HUGE CORRECT COMING. END OF THE WORLD.

    Votes: 10 12.2%
  • < 5%

    Votes: 9 11.0%
  • 5-7%

    Votes: 8 9.8%
  • 8-10%

    Votes: 25 30.5%
  • 11-13%

    Votes: 7 8.5%
  • 14-16%

    Votes: 6 7.3%
  • 17-19%

    Votes: 5 6.1%
  • 20-22%

    Votes: 3 3.7%
  • 23-25%

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • > 25%

    Votes: 8 9.8%

  • Total voters
    82
  • Poll closed .
I'm curious to see what folks reckon.

How much growth do Sydney dwellings have left in this cycle before things taper off?

Having experienced a pretty flat decade preceding this run, investor loans at all time highs, more and more SMSFs being set up and with a second rate cut (March/April) almost a certainty, things look interesting.

The poll closes in 30 days (to create a snapshot of current sentiment).
 
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How much growth do Sydney dwellings have left in this cycle before things taper off?
I voted first and then had a change of mind.

I guess some suburbs are close to their top for the current cycle.

The median value of a house is now $900,500 ?

I guess the median may touch 1 million since it is a big round number. However it may take few years before the prices stabilise above that number.

Time to pay more attention and listen to real experts with lots of experience.
 
Those poll ranges are pretty tight.
My crystal ball is an old model rounding off in units of 10.
Either way, I'd take a punt on 10%+, up to 20%.
 
we're all going to be rooned.

But seriously, have we peaked or still playing catch up? I reckon it's finished catching up now to see a period of more restrained growth.
 
I'd take a wild guess on up to 10% in some places. I temper this by saying that imo some areas have already started to plateau.
The areas that will do well are the same areas that have already done well.
You're in the best place RF - careful not to gloat. :D
 
I think some areas have already plateau, some will still increase possibly 10% this year and 5% next year.
 
Depends on the area. My view is western Sdyney already peaked while northern beaches will still have 10%+ to go.
 
Interesting poll. In my opinion the results are very conservative. I still believe minimum 25% to go and am hoping for 40%. In fact I'm thinking of buying in Sydney again now with the interest rates and dollar going lower. Will not buy in inner west as believe it is close to its peak but would not hesitate to head towards the beach areas in eastern suburbs again. The rent will pay the mortgage.
 
... In fact I'm thinking of buying in Sydney again now with the interest rates and dollar going lower. ....


This is why Sydney keeps going up: people still keep thinking it has more to go, and can see signs in the entrails to support the view.

Friend had an ip, at one time was paying 18% interest. People were still jumping into the market and locking in rates. Rationale then was the fear the interest would go even higher.
 
My view is western Sdyney already peaked while northern beaches will still have 10%+ to go.
Have you been to Western Sydney lately? Everywhere I've been is still HOT! Went to an open on Saturday, walking distance from out place. Listed as offers over $590k with at least 30 people roaming around it. This home is smaller than ours, but still 4x2, has a single garage, pool, split system air, one living area, but better street presentation than our's.

FWIW we bought for $325k about 6 years ago. 4x2,bath, 2 living areas, pool, ducted aircon, double car port etc. Had a reval a maybe 1.5 years ago for $450k.

We were discussing it with the neighbours. I reckon it will sell for $625-$650k.
 
Only one extreme -ve option ? How about -10%, -20%, etc..
-25% before stabilising would be my guess, whenever Australia starts to lose AAA rating and interest rates surge upwards.
 
Only one extreme -ve option ? How about -10%, -20%, etc..
-25% before stabilising would be my guess, whenever Australia starts to lose AAA rating and interest rates surge upwards.
So million dollar homes will go down to 750? That's great, sign me up for a couple, their yield would turn positive by then as well. Hang on a sec, then they'd become an attractive investment and everyone would be buying them. Oh. No 750 homes left for DT :(
 
then they'd become an attractive investment and everyone would be buying them. Oh. No 750 homes left for DT :(
...except with increased cost and reduced availability of credit not everyone could buy them.. this is why prices go down in the first place. But if you are cashed up sure you might get some bargains.
 
Where's the 5-7 more years of this madness option for See Change? :p

I would suggest a nominal peak is likely this year (2003 like peak for Sydney where price growth won't exceed this high for a number of years).

Price growth is already turning. There may be another 10% or so left in the tank...



http://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/residential-price-growth-slowing/

So million dollar homes will go down to 750? That's great, sign me up for a couple, their yield would turn positive by then as well. Hang on a sec, then they'd become an attractive investment and everyone would be buying them. Oh. No 750 homes left for DT :(
Port Hedland investors probably had the same line of thinking before rents fell with prices...
 
An agent friend of mine asked me to help him to do some paper work in his office.

I spent whole last Saturday help him sort out paperwork, filing, and some back office admin work at his agency.

I could not believe it, so many people ( mainly Asian/Chinese) walked into the agency and asking to buy overpriced off plan apartments :eek:

Meadowbank off plan apartments selling around $750,000 - $800,000.


I don't know how to describe it, but when I saw it in front of my own eyes, I felt speechless......
 
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