How to Bottom pick?

Having had all my super in cash for a while, I feel tempted to switch back to shares as the sale is on.

As money is in an industry fund, I have the following options to choose from: Growth, Balanced, Conservative, Australian shares, International shares, Property, Fixed interest and Cash. Money can be spread around in % across one or more options.

What I would like to learn: How do I know when time is ripe to get in?

Feed back from experienced, been there done that investors is appreciated.

Thanks :)
 
What I would like to learn: How do I know when time is ripe to get in?
:)
It's all just a ridiculous rumour,just wait and see how it all spanns out over the next week or so,there is too many "Black Swans"out there
but if you want to learn go back and read the posts prior too the last "GFC",some make very interesting reading,imho..willair..
 
There was a thread a year ago where we were debating if it was a dead cat bounce at the time. I know I was saying it was, and in the end was shown to be wrong.

The question now is: Will I be shown to be right over a longer time line? We have retraced about 50% of those gains.

Will Keen be "right" over a longer time line?
 
No because Keen's predictions had a specific timeline attached. He was wrong.

that chart i posted certainly looks to be a dead cat bounce.

anyway, bottom pickers just end up with smelly fingers. wait for the trend to be established.
 
No because Keen's predictions had a specific timeline attached. He was wrong.
His timeline:
Steve Keen believes property prices will drop 40% in the next few years.
He has later clarified/changed to over the next 15 years. So on his major publicly presented prediction he is not wrong (yet).
 
I've spent a bit of time trying to understand relationships during shocks and recoveries, as does everyone......only my opinion, but watch credit flow and fear for early signs either way.

last recovery unfolded thus:

credit flow led : decline in tedspread and libor
then fear dropped : lower vix
then emerging markets led developed markets : in order - china, brazil, hang sen.
then followed developed markets : dow jones, and asx shortly after.
simultaneously with the rise in the dow, the us dollar index fell as money went back into the markets.

keep in mind there was a false start feb09, then things kicked off in earnest in march.

for a more local gauge, keep an eye on bond yields. Last recovery, the 10 yr yield bottomed 16/1/09, then the 5 and 2 bottomed 2/2/09. asx bottomed 9/3/09. however, this time it is quite different.

I am not taking much notice of aussie bond yields thanks to Rudd, Swan, and Henry.
And I don't think other stuff will be the same.....China won't lead. This time it's China's main export market that fuels the fear, not the US.

One day, I'll produce a big xls with confidence intervals in the correlations of lag and lead times between every indicator in existence. :rolleyes: sort of.
 
The top two charts here, show Australia developing an inverted yield curve and the cash rate forecast shifting to a decrease.

All this is quite bearish in the short and medium term.
 
Having had all my super in cash for a while, I feel tempted to switch back to shares as the sale is on.

As money is in an industry fund, I have the following options to choose from: Growth, Balanced, Conservative, Australian shares, International shares, Property, Fixed interest and Cash. Money can be spread around in % across one or more options.

What I would like to learn: How do I know when time is ripe to get in?

Feed back from experienced, been there done that investors is appreciated.

Thanks :)

My opinion (not advice) is to leave it in a BALANCED setting and concentrate on your day job.

Why: because a balance setting smooths out the fluctuations.
When share market goes down, rebalancing takes money out of cash and into the share market, when share market goes up the reverse happens.

Using a simple example if the fund has 50/50 weighting cash/shares (in reality it doesnt, but lets keep it simple). So we have $50 in cash/$50 in shares, rebalanced once a year.

If stock market crashes 50%, you will have $50 in cash/$25 in shares=$75
Rebalancing occurs= $37.5 in cash, $37.5 in shares.

Next year share market goes up 50%, you have $56.25 in shares, $37.5 in cash= $93.75
Rebalancing occurs= $46.875 cash/$46.875 shares.

etc etc.

A superannuation portfolio is designed for LOOOOONG term investing. So such a setting provides enough time allow cycles to work.
A balanced setting provides protection against a secular bear market if it occurs.
 
Having had all my super in cash for a while, I feel tempted to switch back to shares as the sale is on.

As money is in an industry fund, I have the following options to choose from: Growth, Balanced, Conservative, Australian shares, International shares, Property, Fixed interest and Cash. Money can be spread around in % across one or more options.

What I would like to learn: How do I know when time is ripe to get in?

Feed back from experienced, been there done that investors is appreciated.

Thanks :)

Alternatively from the wording in your posts, you are trying to be a trader.

Therefore my recommendation is to learn the rules of trading.
 
His timeline:
Steve Keen believes property prices will drop 40% in the next few years.
He has later clarified/changed to over the next 15 years. So on his major publicly presented prediction he is not wrong (yet).

I'm sure we all think he's right, but how would we profit/protect from such an open ended forecast?
 
If you want/need to be told things in a definitive manner you will be forever disappointed. No-one is that good.

All you can do is take note and limit the downside according to the ones you believe to be most credible. Keen has no credibility here but nor do any heretics. It may be costly to dismiss them though.
 
I dont think anyone's dismissing Keen. We all know 'the end of the world is nigh'. But Keen was proven wrong when he said it would be last year, then he gave it 15 years, is that right? Fortunes have been made and banked in far less than 15 years. Sorry but I dont see how an open 15 year view is useful to anyone. In fact if enough people agree with Keen, 15 years would be enough time to fix the problem, then his prediction would be falsified.
 
His timeline:
Steve Keen believes property prices will drop 40% in the next few years.
He has later clarified/changed to over the next 15 years. So on his major publicly presented prediction he is not wrong (yet).

In the last two 15 year windows that I know about I've only ever seen houses go UP.

They went up in a bit of a staircase fashion, but still up.

I've seen individual properties go down, but it's a transaction to transaction basis.

Steve Keen must have lived in a parallel universe to us where things are different.
 
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