how to tell which city/ state is moving ?

This may seem like a dumb question :rolleyes: (no question is a dumb question right) and i hope it helps other ss members who are new at looking to buy interstate....

So my question to all you experienced members is what due diligence do you research to know which state/ city is moving or is going to mov... the reason why is if you can purchase in a moving market you are going to build your eqity alot quicker allowing you to expand and buy your next ip sooner...

any input is appreciated,
ben.
 
To the OP: using at least 20 years data, try looking at "supply of houses for sale" as a contrarian indicator for each major city.

When supply is at an all time low, prices will rise (and bargains will slowly but surely disappear). We are seeing that scenario happening in Sydney and Perth with every man and his dog pouring into the market, hoping to get rich. Unless you look very hard, hardly anything is ultra-cheap any more.

Conversely, when supply is at an all time high, there may be more cheapies to be found. It is for this reason that I am active in Victoria.

The above is just my opinion BTW.

Each person does things differently and I wish all market participants every success in the oncoming bull market.
 
Check out everything you can .

All of the above are worthwhile.

If you wait until there is actual movement on prices it will be harder to pick up good buys as other people are already there .

High auction clearance rates are a good sign to look closer.

I look at what people are talking about on this forum , I call it the somersoft leading indicator.

The other thing I do which hasn't been mentioned is . Talk to the agents in the area. Most agents are honest and when you talk to several , recurring themes will become obvious.

I will ring up several and ask a simple open ended question such as " what is happening in the market in ...... at the moment " . I don't tell them why I am ringing up and what information I'm looking for , as giving them too much information may change their answer ( very important ) . Once they've had the opportunity to talk for as long as I can keep them going , if they haven't already given me the info I will ask them specific questions.

Covering the following areas.

Prices , increasing , decreasing , static

Amount of stock on market . Increasing , decreasing , tight , lot of properties on the market.

Future stock are they having difficulty getting stock ? eg this is of interest at the moment . We're looking at two seperate areas . In one we're being told that there's lots of properties about to hit the market after the election coming into spring. All agents in this area are advising us to hold off as there will be opportunities coming , In the other area we're being told listing are really tight and we're having to fight for listings and we're not getting people talking about putting property on the market

Number of sales , increasing , decreasing sales at the moment

When was the last peak in prices . In one area it's now in the other it's 2009 and prices came off around 10-15 % , but they're moving quickly now and some places are getting close to that .

How long is it taking to sell ? increasing , decreasing

Are there many highly motivated buyers out there ?

Who's buying ? First home owners , OO's local investors , interstate investors - ( these guys are smart - some hang around on this forum ).

Are you getting multiple bids on properties ? ( a good sign if people are starting to out bid others ) I've seen this change dramatically in parts of sydney over the last months.

If they're willing to chat on the phone for a long period of time , that in itself indicates they're not flat out.

You will always get some agents who will not give straight forward of misleading answers but when you've talked to a few in one area you will come up with a consensus opinion which is usually going to give you a good indicator of what is going to happen .

The only thing agents are bad at picking is what's going to happen next . You will have a few long term agents who have seen several cycles and are good at knowing what is going to happen however most seem to focus only on their immediate place and period , ie what can I sell this for today rather than what will it be worth in five years time. They're aren't usually aware of what is happening in other areas which will impact their area in the next months .

When we invested in logan , rocky and hobart in the last cycle all the agents were puzzled as to why we were buying there as prices never go up . .


Cliff
 
Great post Cliff.

Some very strategic points there (you could really see what REAs know their game)

Yes . I like agents who don't and are out of date .

We have an offer in on one property and the agent told us its still a buyers market . Given the number of properties that have sold since we started looking about two weeks ago and the feedback from every other agent i think he's wrong , but I'm not about to contradicted him .

He's very slow to respond to contacts . We had problems getting on to him initially and we've had no feed back from our offer so far . He also misquoted the rent as 40 dollars over and had a unique reason for this. We've had an independent rental valuation which came in above current rent .

I think other potential buyers would find the situation very frustrating and unless they REALLY WANTED THAT PROPERTY would look at other properties and find something else by the time he got his act together .

I'm patient.

Cliff
 
*snip*
The other thing I do which hasn't been mentioned is . Talk to the agents in the area. Most agents are honest and when you talk to several , recurring themes will become obvious.

I will ring up several and ask a simple open ended question such as " what is happening in the market in ...... at the moment " .*snip*

And if they don't return your call, or don't have time for a chat, then it is a seller's market, and they don't need to work for their commission!
 
we're looking in a market which seems to changing . Certain segments hot and others just starting to tick over . Some agents aren't getting back to us , quite a few places going under offer , but some agents seem to have plenty of time to chat and one has told us ( and the vendor we're making offers to ... ) that it's a buyers market .

Interestingly the properties which we felt offered best value and haven't sold were with out of area agents.

Cliff
 
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