I'm calling it... 2015 is the peak

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by TJamesX, 27th May, 2015.

  1. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

    Joined:
    25th Sep, 2009
    Messages:
    4,893
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Nope, just asking him to post a London/Manhattan graph in real terms to see how it compares with Syd/Melb, to see if the theory of no city can go on growing in real terms forever stacks up.

    Anyway a lot of theories, a lot of learned and semi-learned POVs, but I guess like always the bottom line is the question we're all asking here. How do we benefit from all these predictions, and if these predictions are wrong as they consistently have been, how do we mitigate risk and still come out ahead?
     
  2. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

    Joined:
    25th Sep, 2009
    Messages:
    4,893
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    "Value"?

    What does a house worth $100 million TJamesX dollars on TJamesX Island mean to you?
     
  3. Gatoblanco

    Gatoblanco Member

    Joined:
    8th Feb, 2008
    Messages:
    441
    Location:
    Brisbane
    can you please bring me up to speed on what 90 percent of the forum believe I'm actually quite interested in this Are you saying that most people believe that house prices in stagnate for quite some time? Thanks
     
  4. cheekykoon

    cheekykoon Member

    Joined:
    28th Sep, 2014
    Messages:
    20
    Location:
    Singapore
    With the Bears coming out... seriously, does debt level bring about price correction or does loss of economic activities bring about price correction.

    In the past 100 years, does economy reset itself every few years? only to gain higher ground in the next few years. How did we come about this far? Cos everything is build on inflation. If we do not inflate upwards, a lot of people will suffer. The only way is to continue to inflate upwards. Be at one with the bubble.
     
  5. HiEquity

    HiEquity Member

    Joined:
    18th May, 2008
    Messages:
    3,178
    Location:
    Australia
    You can hear a pin drop around here sometimes...
     
  6. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

    Joined:
    20th Jun, 2004
    Messages:
    10,498
    Media:
    7
    Location:
    PERTH, WA
    it's a bit difficult to see that happening given the current economic head winds
     
  7. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

    Joined:
    26th Oct, 2014
    Messages:
    268
    Location:
    Sydney
    Considering how big the third world population is e.g. India and Southeast Asia you can only expect many of them to be trying to migrate to Oz. even though Oz is stagnating, it's still mich better than living in poor conditions. So yes we will probably still see more of the Oz Population Ponzi Scheme going on to drive an overall increase in GDP although a lower income per capita. It will of course increase housing demand but perhaps at the lower value segment.
     
  8. knightm

    knightm Member

    Joined:
    14th Nov, 2003
    Messages:
    1,820
    Media:
    5
    Location:
    South Coast & Regional NSW
    and our gub has no choice but to bring enough young tax payers in to counter the cost of ageing boomers and their health issues. Unless some huge racial conflict causes enough political will to backflip I can't see the influx stopping.
     
  9. windyzz

    windyzz Member

    Joined:
    3rd Mar, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Location:
    sydney
    You'll be surprised that the rich Indian and Chinese is also joining the bandwagon to migrate here.
     
  10. unloadmymind

    unloadmymind Member

    Joined:
    26th Oct, 2014
    Messages:
    268
    Location:
    Sydney
    that's my point. they wanna leave their poor polluted countries behind.

    and we all know the stories of South Asian accountants working as taxi drivers or 7-eleven attendants in Oz.
     
  11. BayView

    BayView Member

    Joined:
    2nd Feb, 2007
    Messages:
    12,129
    Media:
    9
    Location:
    Mornington Peninsula
    They already are, and have been for decades.
     
  12. Deltaberry

    Deltaberry Member

    Joined:
    25th Sep, 2009
    Messages:
    4,893
    Location:
    Melbourne, Victoria
    Your point? How do we benefit or how have you benefitted
     
  13. Gockie

    Gockie Life loving Big 4 Banker

    Joined:
    15th Sep, 2011
    Messages:
    288
    Location:
    Northern Sydney
    It means Australian property is still highly desirable by many people outside of Aus.... Given a chance, they will buy here, and continue to do so, keeping our property market and property prices high...
     
    Last edited: 8th Jun, 2015
  14. windyzz

    windyzz Member

    Joined:
    3rd Mar, 2015
    Messages:
    323
    Location:
    sydney
    Got a mate who is selling His 3 luxury apartment in hk and buying 2 houses for over 2 millions each here. According to him 2 million for a house in eastern suburb is very cheap compared to his 3 bed apartment in hk which cost a lot more than 2 mill.

    Just gave an idea how those from China and HK see our property prices here in Sydney
     
  15. BayView

    BayView Member

    Joined:
    2nd Feb, 2007
    Messages:
    12,129
    Media:
    9
    Location:
    Mornington Peninsula
    Are you replying to my post?

    If so; I don't have a point - just responding to windyzz's post.

    It is true; we have had loads of various nationalities immigrating to Aus for decades/centuries.

    Does it benefit me? Yes - the increasing population means a lot of benefits to the community as a whole; taxes for infrastructure etc - and of course; increase in property prices! ;)

    Personally - and it is a greedy point of view - after having living among 300 million people in the USA for 3 years, and experiencing just how horrible that is, and how it does absolutely nothing towards improving the wider populations' standard of living; I would be more than happy for Aus to have zero population growth and immigration from this day forward.

    Anyone who reckons another 50 million people wandering around Aus will be a good thing needs their head read, and go and live in the USA or some other horridly overpopulated Country to really see what happens.

    And, let's face it; if we do get another 50 mill, they will be predominantly clogging up already clogged up Cities; they are not going to move out to the boondocks and set up camp, and make the place evenly spread out with humans.

    Why do reckon I moved down to the Peninula?

    To get away from the hordes of humans infesting the planet.
     
  16. Azazel

    Azazel Member

    Joined:
    18th Feb, 2014
    Messages:
    405
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    For the erenity?
     
  17. BayView

    BayView Member

    Joined:
    2nd Feb, 2007
    Messages:
    12,129
    Media:
    9
    Location:
    Mornington Peninsula
    For the serenity, yes.

    No traffic, no traffic lights, no queues for everything.
     
  18. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

    Joined:
    1st Aug, 2013
    Messages:
    1,182
    Location:
    melbourne
    Not really. Taiwanese and Hong Kong people have been here for decades. Mainland Chinese are a relatively recent phenomenon, which is what people are primarily referring to these days when they say "Chinese".
     
  19. BayView

    BayView Member

    Joined:
    2nd Feb, 2007
    Messages:
    12,129
    Media:
    9
    Location:
    Mornington Peninsula
    There were many Chinese folks here during the gold rush era back in the 1800's as well,

    It is well documented up around places like Bendigo and Ballarat goldfield museums etc.
     
  20. C-mac

    C-mac Member

    Joined:
    12th Feb, 2011
    Messages:
    434
    Location:
    Sydney, NSW
    Bayview, as soon as I am able to escape the rat race of Sydney, I too will be high-tailing the f**k outta here, at least for a good few years. Packing more human sardines into the squashy boxes of Sydney seems to be the plan for this city, sadly. Too many people. And I'm not exactly sure many people here are getting along.

    Dont get me wrong, I love this city; born and bred, but I have this conflicted love-hate relationship with it these days.

    The solution? I realised that the things I value in Sydney, can be enjoyed via occasional visits from another coastal town. I have friends and family here that I could stay with when I want to visit. I could see a future where I live in say Coledale or Salamander Bay or whatever, and I can drive the two hours to spend a weekend here, every month or two. Thats it really. Come here for some great middle Eastern food, some big ticket music gigs, some beach perving, and then leave again.

    Guessing this could be a similar strategy to your peninsula life? What is it - a 90 minute drive to Melbourne from the middle of the peninsula? 2 hours tops?